November 10, 2011

Great post-season games and historic final day should push baseball into adding extra playoff round

Not only did three of the four division series go the distance but in each of those series the result was undetermined until the final pitch.  If this doesn’t send signals to Major League Baseball that they must do everything possible to have more playoff games then there nothing will.

During baseball’s lengthy regular season the differences in depth culled from higher payrolls is clear —the Yankees can overcome injuries and poor performances much easier than any other team--but in a short series where one or two starting pitchers can make the difference, payrolls have far less meaning and importance.  The Yankees with their $200 million payroll had a rookie on the mound in the decided fifth game of their series against Detroit, meanwhile their $16.5 million enigma, AJ Burnett, was on a very short leash in game four.  Burnett actually made it to the mound only because game one rain was suspended for one day and forced both clubs to reach deeper into their rotation depth for a starter later in the series.  The Yankees preferred to go with three starters for the series since they felt uncomfortable going any deeper, but the rain delay forced them to start Burnett.  And in that game if Curtis Granderson doesn’t make a two out bases loaded over the shoulder catch on a Don Kelly line drive then Burnett would likely have been pulled right then with the Yankees down 3-0 and the entire city of New York bemoaning the fact that the club was forced to start the insecure and erratic Burnett.  Yankee fans would have blamed God for the weather that pressed Burnett into service.

Or look at the Philadelphia Phillies—they of the third highest payroll in baseball.  (The Boston Red Sox have the second highest and we all know what happened to them).  The Phillies won a major league high 102 games during the regular season on the basis of their vaunted starting pitching staff.  Their claim that they possess four aces (in actuality Roy Oswalt is past his prime and no longer considered an ace) and those four pitchers led the club to regular season dominance.  However in the post season when one game can make a difference Cliff Lee was given an early four run lead in game two, usually more than enough for him, and failed to hold it.  That loss evened the series and changed the momentum--the Phillies had clubbed St. Louis in the opener--and gave the Cardinals the confidence that they could beat the NL heavyweight.  Game five was a classic as two former Toronto Blue Jays hurlers dominating the hitters with devastating stuff and pin-point control.  The difference--it took Roy Halladay two batters to get into his rhythm while Chris Carpenter was spot on from the get-go.    

So now we have Championship Series in both leagues without the supposed powerhouses in New York, Boston and Philadelphia—as well as the defending champion San Francisco Giants who didn’t make the playoffs.  While the Yankees and Red Sox developed serious flaws as the season progressed, mostly with their aging pitching staffs the Phillies moved through the season like a machine that seemingly could be beaten in a series one way—hope to steal a win against one of the Phils top three starters, beat up on Oswalt in game four, and then hope Carpenter could outpitch his friend and former teammate Halladay in game five.  And that is exactly what happened.  St. Louis would likely not have beaten the Phils if it was a best of seven but in a shorter series a couple of outstanding performances could carry a club. 

What have we learned from the once in a lifetime final day of the regular season and the stunning finishes in the opening round of the playoffs is that baseball needs more games in late September and early October if it hopes to continue to grow as an economic model.  Conversations between the players association and Major League Baseball continue concerning the addition of one more playoff team in each league next year, but there are still obstacles to the incorporation of this proposal.  The upcoming collective bargaining negotiations will include the notion but there are two impediments in the road—the players association must approve, and baseball wants to move one NL team (Houston) to the AL to balance out the leagues.  Houston would go into the AL West—a natural rivalry with the Rangers—and create three five team divisions in each league.  The players are keen on the idea of the extra playoff team—providing they receive fair compensation, which they will—but the hold-up is the Astros who are on the verge of being sold and cannot be moved until new ownership okays the transition.

There are various versions of how the new playoff structure would work--the most popular being a one game playoff between wild card teams.  I don’t like the idea of sudden death unless it is to decide a playoff participant—I believe playoffs should be a series of games.  I understand about time constraints, about not wanting to push the World Series into the second week of November and the hesitation of having division winning clubs waiting for a lengthy period of time before they play.  However I believe a three game series between wild card teams with all three games being played at the home of the higher seeded wild card team would offer two things—a series where the higher seed benefits from being home for all games, and it would be a quick resolution so that the other teams would not have to wait too long.  The wild card games, if the season ended on a Sunday, could begin Tuesday and, without any unforeseen issues cropping up—such as inclement weather—it could be played on three consecutive days.  The Division series could then begin on Saturday.  It would be like an all-star break at the end of the year for the division winners.

The collective bargaining agreement expires in December so a new agreement will be reached.  Baseball has long learned its lesson not to force any lockouts or create an adversarial environment that would culminate in a strike so a resolution will be reached long before spring training begins.  Hopefully, one of the new agreed upon codicils will be an extra round of playoffs.  There really is nothing bad for anyone involved with this idea.  Of course doing the smart thing has never been an automatic action with regard to professional sport leagues.

…Here is my final breakdown for this season’s individual baseball awards.

AL Cy Young—Justin Verlander should be the unanimous selection.  There isn’t any point in mentioning anybody else.  Jered Weaver is second and James Shields should be third.

NL Cy Young—Clayton Kershaw.  Roy Halladay is baseball’s premier pitcher and had a great year but Kershaw won the pitcher’s equivalent of the Triple Crown (lowest ERA, most wins, most strikeouts) and as such had the best season.  Halladay is second and Arizona’s Ian Kennedy is third.

AL MVP—Verlander again.  Since Jose Bautista is excluded because his team was not a contender then Verlander gets it.  Never mind the inane remarks and comments that pitchers don’t play enough to have the same affect on games as a position player.  That is narrow-minded and short-sighted.  Ask any executive what position he would want to build a contender around and that would be an ace starter.  To that end eliminating pitchers from MVP voting is hypocritical.  Bautista is second—he was pitched around more than anyone else in the league and rarely got to hit with men on base.  On the other end Curtis Granderson did not receive one intentional walk all season while Jacoby Ellsbury received just one.  This shows that opposing teams believed that there were more dangerous hitters further down the line-up than either of them so how could either be called MVP of the league.  Ellsbury is third because he was the only Red Sox who hit during the September free-fall and put up incredible numbers across the board.

NL MVP—Ryan Braun.  If Matt Kemp had won the Triple Crown (he finished third in the batting race) then he would have been the MVP.  As it is Braun wins because he had the best season on a contending team.  Kemp is second and Prince Fielder third—though an argument can be made that Fielder had the best year.  Fielder did not have any protection in the line-up (he was walked intentionally a major league high 32 times) while Braun had Fielder hitting behind him and was walked intentionally only twice.

NL Rookie—Craig Kimbrel.  Despite his late season fade Kimbrel is among the bright lights in baseball and looks to be one the game’s pre-eminent closers for years to come.  Teammate Freddie Freeman is second and Washington’s Danny Espinosa is third.

AL Rookie—Tampa’s Bay’s Jeremy Hellickson pitched in baseball’s toughest division and recorded an ERA under three and pitched close to 200 innings.  Kansas City’s Eric Hosmer is second and Anaheim’s Mark Trumbo is third

…It looks like the NBA impasse has reached a breaking point.  The owners have continued to compromise on their position and have come very close to meeting the demands of the players.  However the players association, sensing fear in the owners, are holding knives to their collective throats and spouting solidarity.  The two impasses—the proposed hard cap and the split of basketball related income (BRI)—have been softened by the owners who no longer are seeking a hard cap and have proposed a system similar to the current one.  The only difference—the owners want more penalty money to be paid by teams that supersede the luxury tax threshold.  They owners originally wanted a four to one tax (last season it was one-to one) but have come down to 2-1, which is not agreeable to the players now but the longer the lockout goes will end up being satisfactory to the players.  But the players are hesitating on the owners’ proposal of splitting the BRI down the middle.  They believe that dropping from 57% down to 50% is too steep a drop.   The owners suffered through the economic downturn and simply want the players, who did not suffer at all, to pay their share.  The players believe they hold all the cards and are unwilling to pay more than they believe is fair.  This could be a very long lockout.