February 14, 2003

HALL OF FAME MAY ONE DAY FILL WITH PLAYERS OF TODAY

       Look around major league baseball these days and count the number of active players that are sure-fire hall of famers.  Then count the number of players who are on the cusp of being certainties; those that need perhaps one or two more good seasons to qualify.  After that look at those that have played five or six seasons at a hall of fame pace, and add those that are possible but still need to put together a few more good years.  By my count, you have 27 players in the game today that may one day be inducted into Cooperstown.  So the next time you’re down at the ballpark take note of these players, there may not be enough quality players around to stock 30 teams but there are certainly enough superstars to go around. 

       Let’s first look at the absolutes.  They are—Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Sammy Sosa, Mike Piazza, Roberto Alomar, and Rickey Henderson.  These eight players have already put careers together that cannot be ignored by sportswriters when it comes time to nominate.  Each of the absolute eight has career numbers that should make them first ballot nominees.  Bonds is only 47 homers short of Willie Mays and third place on the all-time home run list, and is on target to pass Hank Aaron.  He is unquestionably the most dangerous hitter of his time.  Clemens is on the verge of winning his 300^th career game and is less than 100 strikeouts from being the third pitcher to join the 4000-strikeout club.  He has won a record six Cy Young awards.  Johnson has been the majors’ most dominant pitcher for the past half decade and last season won his fifth Cy Young award.  The Big Unit will likely become the fourth member of the 4000-strikeout club this year.  Maddux is a four time Cy Young winner and last season became only the second pitcher in history—Cy Young is the other—to win at least 15 games in 15 straight seasons.  Sosa is the only player in history to have three 60 home run campaigns and his next home run will be the 500^th of his career.  Piazza is among the greatest hitting catchers of all-time.  He has eight straight 30 home runs campaigns, and his ten straight 20 home run seasons are an all-time major league record for a catcher.  Last season he passed the 1000 RBI mark and he will soon pass Carlton Fisk for career home runs as a catcher.  Alomar is acknowledged as the finest second baseman of his generation.  He has won ten gold gloves, is a career .300 hitter, has hit more than 200 home runs, driven in more than 1000 runs, scored more than 1000 runs, and has stolen more than 450 bases.  In the next three years Alomar will likely pass the 500 stolen base mark, hit his 500th career double, and join the 3000 hit club.  Rickey has established himself as baseball’s greatest all-time leadoff hitter.  He is the all-time leader in runs scored, walks, and stolen bases, and is already a member of the 3000 hit club.  These eight are already automatic entries into Cooperstown.

      The next category is for those that are close to being assured a place in the Hall.  They are the probables—Pudge Rodriguez, Jeff Bagwell, Fred McGriff, Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez, Ken Griffey jr., and Rafael Palmeiro.  Pudge is the finest catcher of his generation.  A ten-time gold glove winner and a league MVP are the awards that go along with a .305 career average 215 homers and 829 RBI’s.  For Pudge to be assured of his enshrinement he will need to add on to those numbers, but at age 31 he will probably do enough for the remainder of his career to guarantee a spot.  Bagwell is on pace to hit more than 500 home runs and collect more than 3000 hits, numbers that will assure him a place.  He just needs to continue on his present pace for another four or five years and at 34 hasn’t shown any inclination of slowing down.  McGriff is just 22 home runs shy of the magical 500 mark and with more than 1500 RBI’s to his credit he should merit inclusion.  Glavine has won 242 games in a career that has netted him two Cy Young awards.  At age 36 Glavine still has a chance at 300 wins.  For a five-year span nobody was more dominating than Pedro.  He is still putting up superstar numbers and at age 31 already has three Cy Youngs under his belt.  Griffey has been slowed the past two seasons by injuries that seemingly have taken him out of the chase for Aaron’s record.  He has clubbed 468 home runs and driven in 1358 runs.  At age 33 and with 2039 hits he should, barring further injuries, be a lock for 600 home runs and 3000 hits.  Palmeiro is the underrated superstar.   He never had the outstanding season that would have given him all-star and MVP considerations, but his consistency has resulted in 490 home runs, 1575 RBI’s and more than 2600 hits.  600 home runs and 3000 hits are possibilities.  Any of these seven might have already accomplished enough in the eyes of voters to merit inclusion in Cooperstown, but each one still has time to add to their numbers and guarantee themselves enshrinement.

       The future looks very bright for five superstars that just need to stay consistent for the remainder of their careers to ensure inclusion.  They are—Vladamir Guerrero, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, and Manny Ramirez.  At age 26 Guerrero has already surpassed 200 home runs and 1000 hits and if he continues at his present pace could give Aaron’s mark—if it still stands—a run.  Jeter has been a model of consistency through his seven seasons, averaging nearly 200 hits per campaign, and at age 28 should easily pass the 3000 hit plateau in his career.  A-Rod has been the best overall hitter in the game for years and at age 27 is just two home runs shy of 300 for his career.  He is also a lock, at his present pace, for 3000 hits, has won a batting title, and will ultimately challenge the all-time home run mark.  Not bad for a shortstop.  Another shortstop putting up tremendous numbers is Garciaparra.  At 29 Nomar is a little older his two other positional competitors and is a little behind in the numbers but with more than 1000 hits and a career .328 average he should reach the 3000 hit mark as well.  Ramirez, 30, has hit 310 home runs and should pass the 500-career home run mark.  Already over 1000 RBI’s he could reach 2000 for his career.  These five players are young enough that their present rate of production should continue well into the future, and if it does should guarantee each of them a spot in the hall.

       On the outside, with a remote chance of making it, are seven players.  They are—Frank Thomas, Larry Walker, Craig Biggio, Jeff Kent, Trevor Hoffman, Robb Nen and Mariano Rivera.  Thomas’ production has dropped the last couple of years and unless he regains his former stroke he will not have the numbers necessary to be among the nominees.  He has won two MVP’s and a batting crown, has hit 376 home runs and has more than 1900 hits, but at age 35 will need a couple of monstrous seasons to be considered hall of fame material.  Walker is a little closer to Cooperstown having won three batting crowns, one MVP award, and seven gold gloves.  His numbers are solid—335 home runs, 1133 RBI’s and more than 1800 hits, but for Walker to assure himself a place he will need to either reach 500 home runs or 3000 hits, and both those numbers seem unlikely.  For a second baseman Biggio’s numbers are solid.  He will likely end his career with more than 200 home runs, 1000 RBI’s, 1500 runs scored, 2500 hits, 500 doubles, and 400 stolen bases--numbers that are impressive but may not be enough to sway voters.  Kent is in a similar situation.  He has accumulated his numbers as a second baseman—253 home runs, 1000 RBI’s and 1600 hits, and at age 34 could still have several strong seasons ahead of him.  If he reaches 400 home runs and 1500 RBI’s he may have a legitimate chance.  The other three outsiders are closers, and the reason they are outsiders is that closers typically have a difficult time getting recognized for their work.  All-time saves leader Lee Smith hasn’t even come close to induction.  Hoffman is 35 and has accumulated 352 saves.  Nen is 33 and has 314 saves to his credit, and Rivera, at 33, has only 243 saves, but he has a post- season career that cannot be equalled.  Perhaps if Smith’s mark of 476 saves is toppled the closer who exceeds it may have a shot, otherwise the chances of any of the three gaining admittance looks bleak.     

       There you have it--a total of 27 present day ballplayers that may one day be handed hall of fame invitations.  Enjoy their talents while you still can