February 20, 2007

WHO WILL BE THE “SURPRISE” FACTORS IN THIS YEAR’S PENNANT RACES? 

      Each year the contending teams in Major League Baseball spend millions of dollars on established players in an attempt to solidify their rosters and to ensure as much certainty as possible.  However, it is usually the surprise player—the veteran that has a career year or the stud youngster that finally realizes his potential—that keys a team’s rise to the top.  Last year the Minnesota Twins were unsure whether they had enough talent to compete with the defending champion Chicago White Sox in the AL Central Division.  They didn’t know if they had enough offense, or if their starting pitching would hold up.  Well, three of their young players (Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Francisco Liriano) rose to prominence and led the Twins to the division championship.  Who will be the “surprise” players in 2007? 

       Unless there is a surprise team this summer (and there always is at least one) each league can boast about ten teams that have playoff caliber potential.  This week we’ll look at the American League contenders and the surprise players who might be the keys to their team’s success.

       For the New York Yankees spring training is typically about million dollar veterans preparing themselves for the upcoming season.   There is very little competition for positions—superstars hold nearly every spot, but this is a club that hasn’t won a World Series since 2000 and anything less than a championship is considered failure by both the organization and the city.  If the Yankees are going to find success this year two starting pitchers are going to have to contribute.  Carl Pavano is coming off two injury plagued seasons and believes that he is finally ready to help the Yankees, and Kei Igawa has come over from Japan to fill the fifth spot in the rotation.   For the Yanks if they hope to once again hold off the Red Sox and the Blue Jays and win the division they are going to need some stability at the bottom of their rotation.  If either pitcher falters it will put undue strain on the club—there isn’t a lot of pitching depth--and will force management into trading one or more of the few remaining prospects to fill the void.   

      Boston spent more than $100 million to sign Daisuke Matsuzaka--a lot of money to spend on a third starter, but then they obviously have the money to spend.  With Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett heading the rotation and Jonathan Papelbon and Tim Wakefield filling it out the Sox look to have as good a group of starters as there is in baseball.  With a solid offense keyed by David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez the key to this season for Boston lies in two areas—relief pitching and team defense.  The Sox, with the move into the rotation of Papelbon, are looking for a closer and are hoping that former Seattle Mariner Joel Pineiro will fill the bill.  Otherwise they will need to call on Craig Hansen to finally realize his potential and take the job—something the organization has anticipated since they drafted him.   The Sox also beefed up their offense, and gave up some defense, by signing Julio Lugo to play shortstop.  The club is hoping that young second baseman Dustin Pedroia will help stabilize the middle infield defense—an awful lot to expect from a rookie.

       The Blue Jays are looking to make that final leap into playoff contention this season.  The Jays added to an already potent line-up by adding Frank Thomas, and with a full season of Alex Rios the Jays could have the top run scoring club in the league.  Their success, however, is pinned to an iffy pitching staff.  They have as good a one-two punch as there is in baseball with Roy Halladay and AJ Burnett.  Gustavo Chacin is penciled in as the third starter, but if the Jays are going to succeed they are going to need some solidly pitched games by their fourth and fifth starters.  They are counting on three veterans, John Thomsen, Tomo Ohka, and Victor Zambrano, to help them out.   The Jays will need at least one of these three to bounce back from an injury plagued season, make 30 starts and win ten plus games if they have any hope of overtaking the Red Sox and the Yankees.  The Jays also lost their main set-up reliever, Justin Speier, and are counting on Brandon League to fill that void and bridge the gap between the starters and closer BJ Ryan.   

       The Central Division looks to be a tight four-team race this year.  Detroit is gearing up for a return engagement to the World Series and have brought back most of the same club that lost last year to the Cardinals.  The Tigers will need similar production from these players—like the Yanks the roster appears to be set.  There isn’t a flashy rookie vying for a roster spot, nor does it appear as if the Tigers will need a career year out of any of their veterans.  But injuries always play a part in a team’s season and this year the Tigers may need starting prospect Andrew Miller before the season ends.

       The Twins enter this year facing the huge prospect of filling the hole left by the injury to Liriano.  The lefthanded fireballer had elbow surgery and is gone for the year.  In his stead the Twins, who can already boast the majors’ best pitcher in Johan Santana, will need somebody else to step up and be a solid number two behind Santana.  The club will have to rely on its young arms, Matt Garza, Scott Baker and Boof Bonser, to mature quickly and be able to get major league hitters out.  If the youngsters don’t produce the Twins brought in a bevy of second and third-rate pitchers as safety valves, but if they have to rely on veterans like Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson then their season will undoubtedly be a bust.  

      Like the Tigers the White Sox have an established club.  They won the World Series two years ago, added Jim Thome last year and then went out and missed the playoffs.  The club isn’t much different this year, except they traded one of their veteran starters, Freddy Garcia, to Philadelphia.  In return the Sox received Gavin Floyd, a pitcher they believe is on the verge of stardom.  If the Sox are going to compete in this ultra-competitive division they are going to need Floyd to be a solid fifth starter.  With starting shortstop Juan Uribe dealing with a serious criminal matter in his homeland, the Dominican Republic, there is a chance that he could miss a good portion of the season.  If so the Sox are going to need some contribution from switch-hitting Alex Cintron who was effective as a part-time player last year.

       The fourth contending club from the Central is Cleveland.  The Indians were supposed to be best team in the division last year but fell on hard times early and couldn’t straighten out in time to make a playoff run.  Last year the bullpen not only failed to put out any fires they added gasoline to most.  This year, with some fresh faces in the bullpen the Indians, a solid starting rotation, and a powerhouse line-up, they are hoping to get back to being a contender.  For that to happen they will need solid performances from Joe Borowski, their new closer, Jeremy Sowers their young lefthanded starter, and middle reliever Jason Davis.  

       The West looks to be the weakest division and the eventual winner might have just the fifth or sixth best record in the league.  Nonetheless, the winner will make the playoffs and each of the A’s, the Angels and the Rangers are going to need more than just a few surprises to come out ahead in the end.  The defending champions from Oakland suffered a couple of huge blows in the off-season losing both ace starter Barry Zito and slugger Frank Thomas.  The A’s hope that Rich Harden can finally stay healthy and assume the lead role on the staff and hope they can catch lightning in a bottle again signing Mike Piazza to replace Thomas.  The A’s, though, will need some offensive punch from first baseman Dan Johnson.  After slugging fifteen home runs in a little more than half a season in 2005 Johnson fell on hard times last year and was nothing more than a pinch hitter through most of the year.  The A’s need Johnson to reclaim his power stroke.  Oakland also will need Joe Blanton and Dan Haren to finally maximize their potential and relinquish their tendency toward inconsistent performances. 

      The Angels have the most talent in the division—they certainly have the deepest pitching staff.  But they struck out once again in its search to find a power hitter to protect perennial MVP candidate Vladimir Guerrero.  So for protection the club will look internally and hope that Casey Kotchman and Howie Kendrick can provide the desirable offensive production.  The club has been waiting on Kotchman, their power hitting prospect, for three years now and hope that Kendrick can continue his progression and establish himself as a force in the middle of their line-up.

       In Texas the fans rarely are given reason for optimism by the Ranger organization.   This season isn’t that different.  The Rangers are going to need a bunch of surprise performances to have a chance at winning the division.  They will need Gerald Laird to be the everyday catcher and lead a moribund pitching staff while still producing decent offensive numbers.  The club will also need Nelson Cruz to live up to his billing as a top-flight prospect, and they will need Robinson Tejada and Brandon McCarthy to at least be consistent in the middle of their rotation. 

       Typically, it is the team that relies less on surprise performances and more on the consistency of veterans that wins in the end.  If that were the case then the Tigers would be the odds-on favourite to repeat as AL Champions.  Of course another team could just surprise, the way the Tigers did last year.

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