March 3, 2003

SEASON PREVIEW—LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN NATIONAL LEAGUE

       Last season’s playoff clubs, Arizona, San Francisco, St. Louis and Atlanta, didn’t do anything to improve the clubs in the off-season.  But with so few teams having improved enough to challenge them there is a good possibility that they will once again be the National League’s playoff teams at the end of the season.

       The Atlanta Braves have been the dominant team in the NL for most of the past decade.  The Braves have won their division each year –barring the strike season—since 1991.  That works out to eleven straight post-season appearances for the tomahawk choppers, but they have just one World Series title to show for all those years of success.  This year the Braves are once again considered one of the favourites to cop the league crown.  But the team’s vaunted pitching staff underwent a severe facelift in the off-season and with the improving Phillies ready to make a charge the Braves streak of division titles might be in serious jeopardy.

       The regular season success of the Braves can be attributed to strong pitching and a conservative approach to the game.  The Braves are a team built for the long haul.  They pitch well, they are managed well, and they hit just enough to win games during the long, relatively emotionless, season, but their conservative passionless type of ball consistently fails them when the playoffs arrive.  It is then that the Braves are unable to turn their intensity up enough to compete with much more motivated clubs.  With Greg Maddux likely in his final season as staff ace, and with the team hoping that an inconsistent Mike Hampton can replace the always consistent Tom Glavine the Braves may be looking at the end of their eleven-year regular season dynasty.  Wild man Russ Ortiz is pencilled in as the third man in the rotation, replacing Kevin Millwood, and he will need to find the plate more often to have success with Atlanta.  Savvy, if not injury prone, veteran Paul Byrd and inexperienced Jason Marquis round out a still impressive starting staff.  The Braves have a horse in the bullpen and can count on John Smoltz being a fifty saves guy.  The offence will be solid, but not spectacular, and will hit enough to keep the Braves in the 90 plus win category.  Whether that will be enough to win the division, or even qualify them for the wild card, will depend on how well the Phillies play and whether another team can surprise enough to snag the final playoff spot.

       The Phillies made a big splash in the off-season signing Jim Thome and David Bell and trading for Millwood.  Thome’s 50 home run bat will be a tremendous addition to a line-up that already boasts solid all-around hitter Bobby Abreu and powerful clean-up man Pat Burrell.  The problem for the Phillies will not be in scoring runs; it will be in preventing them.  The addition of Millwood gives the team a solid starter, but Millwood has never been a staff ace before and it is uncertain how he will react to the added pressure of facing Randy Johnson, Maddux, and the other staff aces on a regular basis.  Behind Millwood are four question marks.  Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla have the talent and are coming off 200 inning seasons but neither has yet been a big winner in the majors.  The back of the rotation looks to have rookie Brett Myers and inconsistent youngster Brandon Duckworth who combined for a grand total of 12 wins last year.  Jose Mesa heads up a veteran bullpen that will be counted on to offset the problems the inexperienced starting staff will likely spawn. 

      The Phillies have too many question marks going into to the season to be classified as a favourite to win the Eastern Division.  The Braves will almost certainly plod along and win their 90 plus.  The Mets and the Expos are at opposite ends of the salary scale but have similar talent.  The Mets are old and overpaid, the Expos are young and unproven-- each team will struggle to stay competitive and likely finish around the .500 mark.  The Marlins will once again attempt to rebuild—which means another 90 plus loss season. 

       The Central Division looks to also be a battle between two teams.  The Cardinals did not address their pitching concerns in the off-season and may tumble while the Astros added a solid bat to a solid line-up but also have pitching troubles.  The Cards are hoping that Chuck Finley resigns with them when eligible on May 1 giving them a veteran lefthander on an all right-handed throwing squad.  Matt Morris is the ace, and deserves the accreditation, and Woody Williams and Brett Tomko are solid major league pitchers.  Jason Simontachi and Garrett Stephenson are also in the mix, as is wild card thrower Rick Ankiel who is coming off elbow surgery.  Dealing with surgery isn’t anything new to the Cards, who might be missing their closer Jason Isringhausen when the season starts.  The Cards have more than enough offence to win the division, but will need consistency from their pitching staff to compete for a World Series title.

       The Astros have two quality starters in Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller and two overpowering relievers in Octavio Dotel and Billy Wagner.  Behind these four pitchers though is a rash of question marks.  Losing lefthander Carlos Hernandez for the year hurts a staff that has lifetime Astro Shane Reynolds, journeyman Pete Munro and youngsters Kirk Saarloos and Tim Redding.  The offence will be counted on to score a ton of runs in tiny Astros Field and with Jeff Kent providing protection for Lance Berkman and Jeff Bagwell the team is likely to be a devastating offensive machine. 

       The Cards will probably have more pitching than the Astros to ultimately prevail.  The Cubs will likely improve under Dusty Baker and could contend if their young pitching staff begins to jell.  The Reds have an unhappy superstar in Ken Griffey and that probably means a monster season for the former MVP, but for the team there is little else.  The Pirates have added some veterans in order to avoid another 90-loss season, and the Brewers could be the worst team in the NL.

       The West Division is about three players, two pitchers-- Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling for Arizona, and one hitter-- Barry Bonds for the Giants.  These players ensure that their respective teams will be competitive and contend for the division crown.  The Dodgers may overachieve and could compete with the top two if their aging pitching staff suddenly gets healthy.   

      The Diamondbacks have consistently searched for a pitcher to back up their dominating duo and this season that honour falls to former Red Elmer Dessens.  If the D’backs have indeed found a consistent winner in their third spot in the rotation it will be very difficult for the Giants to overtake them.  The D’backs have a consistent offensive club and a decent bullpen—providing they don’t make the mistake of taking closer Byung-Hyun Kim and trying him out as a starter.  The key player may be first baseman Lyle Overbay who is being counted on to provide the power needed from a man playing his position.  Outside of Luis Gonzalez the D’Backs don’t have any powerful bats and will need to find some offence to take the pressure off their pitchers. 

       The Giants don’t need to worry about offence.  Bonds can make a line-up look daunting all by himself.  The club will have more speed in the line-up this season with second baseman Ray Durham leading off and Marquis Grissom and Jose Cruz jr. getting regular work in the outfield.  The team will miss Jeff Kent but by signing perennial .300 hitter Edgardo Alfonzo to play third base and having shortstop Rich Aurilia completely healthy the Giants hope to be able to compensate for the missing power.  Pitching will determine where the Giants finish the season.  Jason Schmidt’s overpowering performance in last season’s playoffs ensured him of being this season’s staff ace.  Behind him though are the overweight and wobbly Livian Hernandez, soft tossing Kirk Rueter, second year man Damian Moss and rookie Kurt Ainsworth.  A solid bullpen headed by closer Robb Nen should have little trouble closing out games.

       The D’backs have indeed found their number three starter as Dessens wins 15 games and spearheads another Arizona division title.  Bonds will curse everyone out this year as he approaches 250 walks and the Giants struggle to hold off the Dodgers for second place.  The Rockies continue to retool and the Padres continue to rebuild.

       The playoff prognostication:  Atlanta, St. Louis, Houston, and Arizona.

       NEXT WEEK—THE AMERICAN LEAGUE