March 28, 2007

NATIONAL LEAGUE HAS NOW BECOME THE JUNIOR CIRCUIT

       Despite the fact that the St. Louis Cardinals are the defending World Series champions the National League, long considered the senior circuit, has evolved into the junior sister in major league baseball.  There are more quality teams and more quality players residing in the American League, and the competitive balance in the AL is far superior to that of the NL.  But even with a dearth of high quality teams in the NL it doesn’t mean that there isn’t serious and interesting competition.  After all the World Series is a short series and, like last season, in a short series anything can happen, so as the season begins all these middling teams maintain hopes of winning a world title.

       The East Division in 2007 is the property of two teams, the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies.   For the Mets they will again rely on an aging starting staff, a solid bullpen, and its core of veteran hitters to lead them to the Promised Land.  With Pedro Martinez not expected back until the all-star break the Mets will need the sly and wily Tom Glavine (10 wins short of 300) and the ageless Orlando Hernandez to lead their staff.  But if the Mets are going to succeed they are going to need productive seasons out of a couple of unproven starters, John Maine and Mike Pelfrey.  Maine had a few quality starts for the Mets coming down the stretch and he was one of the few healthy pitchers left for the club once it reached the playoffs.  He showed enough to give the organization confidence that he can be successful over an entire year.  Pelfrey, a product of the farm system, is being counted on to make the next step and be an asset to the major league club.  With the Mets having signed oft-injured and rapidly aging Moises Alou to play left field you can be pretty well assured that the club’s fourth outfielder will get a ton of playing time.  That means another quality season will be expected from Endy Chavez.

       The Phillies look ready to push the Mets down to the wire.  They acquired a quality starter in Freddy Garcia, signed annual underachiever Adam Eaton to fill out their rotation, and signed Rod Barajas to be their catcher.  The Phillies should be able to hit with the Mets, having Ryan Howard and Chase Utley in the middle of the order and Jimmy Rollins to kick start the offense helps, but if the Phils want to win the division they are going to need some help from some unlikely sources.  Ryan Madson will need to embrace his new role as primary set-up man and Geoff Geary will need to continue his solid work in middle relief for the team to effectively bridge the gap between their starters and closer Tom Gordon.  After the Bobby Abreu trade Shane Victorino took hold of the right field job and wouldn’t let it go.  His aggressiveness and timely hitting will be needed to ensure that there are enough base runners for their middle of the order mashers to bring home. 

      The Atlanta Braves could compete for the division crown but they will need otherworldly performances from about half a dozen players to do so.  The strength of this team just may be the revamped bullpen.  Considered the sore spot of the club last year the Braves acquired closer Bob Wickman during the season, and have added former Pirate closer Mike Gonzalez and hard throwing Rafael Soriano to the staff.  If the Braves are to compete they will need big campaigns from starters Chuck James and Kyle Davies, and they will need to replace the power bat of Adam Laroche (traded to the Pirates for Ganzalez) as protection for the Joneses, Chipper and Andrew.  That job likely falls to Scott Thorman who produced enough during his short appearance in the majors last season to make the organization feel that he could do the job.  The Braves, however, are likely to fall off later in the season, when their lack of depth is exposed, and finish comfortably in third place.

       Florida will once again be relying on a core of unproven youngsters and that means a .500 season will be classified a success.  For the Washington Nationals if they can avoid losing 100 games then they should be happy.

      The Central Division, where a .500 record meant contention last season, could see a similar result this year but with a major overhaul at the top.  Two bottom dwellers from last season, the Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers, look to have made the most dramatic improvements and could be the clubs fighting for the division lead by season’s end.  The Cubs spent millions of dollars in the off-season signing Alfonso Soriano, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, Mark DeRosa and manager Lou Piniella.  With the Tribune Company looking to unload its business interest, including the Cubs, they needed the baseball team to at least look like a competitive club, and the team certainly looks like a competitive club.  It also looks as if Chicago’s prized pitching sensations, Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, may be done as Cubs.  For the first time in years neither is counted on to be contributors—in fact Prior was sent to the minor leagues to begin the season.   But if the club is going to make the huge leap from last place to first they will need solid performances from starter Rich Hill and shortstop Cesar Izturis.  The biggest addition will come from the expected trade of outfielder Jacque Jones.  The Cubs desperately need an experienced centerfielder—if they use Soriano in center the club will be in deep trouble defensively, enough to sabotage any improvements made in the pitching staff.  The Cubs will definitely improve, but probably not enough to win the division. 

      The Brewers could be the surprise team this year.  Milwaukee was encouraged by the performance of its young players (Prince Fielder, Bill Hall, Rickie Weeks, Dave Bush) last season and went about adding to that core this off-season.  Veteran starter Jeff Suppan and infielder Craig Counsell were added to the growing depth of this club, and the sudden strength of its pitching staff will ease the minds of its young hitters should they get off to a slow start.  Along with the further development of its youngsters the Brewers will need former closer Derrick Turnbow to return to his strike throwing ways and they will need the veteran platoon of Counsell and Tony Graffanino to fill in at a third for a still ailing Corey Koskie (post concussion syndrome).  If the Brewer organization is correct in their assumption then their young hitters will improve and Milwaukee will have enough talent to win baseball’s weakest division.  

       Defending champion St. Louis still has the best hitter in the game, Albert Pujols, and the best starter in the National League, Chris Carpenter, but they probably don’t have enough anywhere else to continue their recent domination of this division.  The starting staff will have to rely on guys that either have had little major league success, Kip Wells and Anthony Reyes, or little major league experience Adam Wainwright.   While not much is expected from either Reyes or Wells, Wainwright has the potential to be a solid number two starter.  If the Cards hope to compete again they will need at least two of these pitchers to keep them in games for the Pujols-led offense to win.  The likelihood is that they will not.

       Houston is in the middle of its annual “will he or won’t he” comedy routine with Roger Clemens.   While Clemens’ name is enough to convince teams to empty their bank accounts for his services in actuality the Rocket is just a shell of his former self--last season Clemens was nothing more than a five-inning pitcher.  Clemens will likely re-sign with Houston for the final four months and, besides filling the stadium, contribute very little to the Astros.  In his stead the Astros will need Wandy Rodriguez to become more consistent and Jason Jennings to prove that, outside of Colorado, he is indeed a quality starting pitcher.  The focus of this clubm this city and all major league baseball should be on watching Craig Biggio as he counts down to 3000 hits.  The future hall of famer is one of the stalwarts of the game and should be promoted by MLB as one of its great ambassadors.  But Biggio is at the end of his career and the club will need offensive production from Chris Burke and Luke Scott, two farm products that have been handed starting outfield positions.  If closer Brad Lidge returns to his former dominance then the Astros will again be part of the divisional race.

       Cincinnati went into last season thinking that it had too much offense and not enough pitching.  They were right.  So this season, after trading away a lot of its offense, the Reds seems to have less offense but surprisingly the pitching doesn’t look any better.  The Reds look to be on par with Pittsburgh with both clubs looking straight down the barrel at a pair of 90 loss seasons.

       The West Division will probably come down to the same two clubs as last year—San Diego and Los Angeles.  The Giants overspent for a decent starter—Barry Zito—and are hoping to be competitive in Barry Bonds’ (hopefully) last season, but they don’t have enough pitching or offensive depth and will be relegated to watching Bonds’ chase of Hank Aaron’s home run record (providing Bonds doesn’t end up either in jail or on suspension for his steroid abuse and grand jury deceptions).  There are too many question marks surrounding the Giants—they are old at pretty much every position, their starting staff needs strong seasons from its two youngster, Noah Lowry and Matt Cain, and their bullpen is still undecided (will Armando Benitez be traded and can Brian Wilson fill the bill as closer?)  The Giants likely will finish closer to the bottom of the division that to the top. 

      The Padres will rely on the depth of their starting staff and a solid bullpen to compensate for a rather weak offense.  If San Diego wants to consider itself among the elite of the league they will need contributions from Atlanta cast-off second baseman Marcus Giles, former Expo and National outfielder Termell Sledge and rookie third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff.  If these three hitters can provide some punch then the Padres will be division contenders—if they don’t produce any offense the pitching staff will eventually wear down from far too many low scoring games.

       The Dodgers, like the Cubs, decided to fill their holes by spending money.  By signing Jason Schmidt the Dodgers added a number one starter to a quality staff that includes holdovers Brad Penny and Derek Lowe and free agent signee Randy Wolf.  The Dodgers also signed centerfielder Juan Pierre to be their lead-off hitter and re-signed Nomar Garciaparra to be their main run producer.  The Dodgers will need closer Takashi Saito to continue holding off Father Time and be the man at the end of the bullpen, and they will need hard throwing Jonathan Broxton to continue his development toward being the closer of the future.  Offensively, the club will need outfielder Andre Ethier to add some power to his .300 average.  The Dodgers need a lot of things to go right, mostly for Nomar to remain healthy, but should have enough to stay with the Padres and, with the depth of the pitching staff, win the division. 

      Both Arizona and Colorado have turned over their rosters and are rebuilding with youth.  The Diamondbacks have the advantage of experience in the rotation.  They can trot out 2006 Cy Young winner Brandon Webb, Randy Johnson, Livian Hernandez and Doug Davis, and this will keep the club in games as it waits for its young hitters to develop.  To compete they will need its highly touted farm system to finally produce major league hitters.  They will be looking for contributions from rookie Chris Young, sophomore outfielder Carlos Quentin and second year infielders Stephen Drew and Conor Jackson.  If these youngsters prove to be everything they are projected to be then the D’Backs will compete for the division title—but that’s an awful lot to ask of young players.  This club is still a year away. 

      The Rockies have a solid middle of the line-up with Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, Todd Helton and Brad Hawpe, but their season like so many other teams will depend on its pitching staff.   Colorado has too many inexperienced starters to be competitive, and is counting on retreads like Rodrigo Lopez to bridge the gap.  Aaron Cook, Jeff Francis, and Jason Hirsch look to have bright futures, but that future is still at least a year away.  The Rockies will finish in the West Division basement.

       The National League is wide open, with as many as ten teams capable of being the league representative in the World Series.  If Pedro Martinez can come back and be a dominant force in the rotation then the Mets will be the favourite.  I still think the Phillies, like Jimmy Rollins said, have the team to beat and the Brewers are going to be the biggest surprise.  But it will be the team that produces the greatest number of surprise performances that puts it over the edge.  So watch for those players listed above—if they produce then their clubs have a chance, if not…well, there’s always next year.   

      Predictions

NL East…Philadelphia                                                                                       NL Central…Milwaukee                                                                                      NL West…Los Angeles                                                                                      NLWildcard...NewYork                                                                                         NL Champion…New York Mets

AL East…Toronto                                                                                             AL Central…Detroit                                                                                            AL West…Los Angeles                                                                                      ALWildcard...NewYork                                                                                                        League Champion…Detroit 

World Series Champion…Detroit

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