March 29, 2006

YANKS, RED AND WHITE SOX TO STRUGGLE IN ULTRA COMPETITIVE A.L.      

      There are all kinds of so-called experts out there (and you all know how I feel about them) who are predicting as many as six teams to win 90 games in the American League.  There are also a bunch of them (and they know who they are) that insist that the Yanks, Red Sox and White Sox are the teams to beat this year—they really went out on a limb, didn’t they?  Well, this so-called expert says bah-humbug (I know ‘tis not the season).

       With solid teams like Toronto, Oakland and Texas having improved their clubs and with Cleveland and Anaheim already established as quality clubs there is no way that those three favourites will have an easy ride.  As a matter-of-fact I believe that at least one of those teams won’t even make the playoffs—at least one, and possibly two.  And here is my main reason why I can make such a bold statement.

 Pitching.   Some of you are saying-“maybe the Yanks, but how can you say that about Boston, and more specifically Chicago?”  Here’s how—and we’ll begin with the White Sox.  Now, granted they look like they have about as solid a starting five as baseball has seen in a while, and they probably do, but there are cracks in that armour.  Mark Buerhle and Freddy Garcia are established, but Jon Garland and Jose Contreras have only had the one good year (last year).  It is still uncertain whether they will be able to back up those seasons.  But the one question mark in the rotation is Javier Vazquez—an unqualified talent, yes, but he has pitched well when in non-competitive environments (Montreal and Arizona) and flopped on the big stage in New York.  Can he pitch when under pressure—we’ll see.  Beyond the starting staff lies the Sox’ huge question mark—the bullpen.  Who is the closer?  Can their two-month wonder from last year—Bobby Jenks—do it for an entire season?  Will Dustin Hermanson’s aching back allow him to pitch more than twice a week?  Outside of Neil Cotts are there any sure things out there?  The answer to that last question is no.  And Manager Ozzie Guillen won’t be able to send his starters out there to complete games all season the way he did in the playoffs.  

      Boston seems to have a decent starting staff, but an aging Curt Schilling, and an ever-injured John Beckett are the leaders.  Only Tim Wakefield is a sure thing for the starters, and the bullpen, with a huge question mark around closer Keith Foulke, will be in a state of flux for most of the year.  The Sox will tell you that they believe they have depth with their pitching staff, and that they have enough quality arms in the bullpen to cover up for Foulke.  Don’t you believe them.  They have a ton of holes everywhere you turn and they are the most likely team to take a dramatic fall in the standings.  Then we’ll see how Manny likes being Manny. 

       The Yanks only have aging and injury prone pitchers on their staff.  Randy Johnson is closer to being mediocre than he is to be a Cy Young candidate.  Mike Mussina has been steady—steadily getting worse each year.  After those two are a mélange of hopefuls and finger crossings.  How many starts will the Yanks get from Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano?  Can they reasonably expect to be saved again by low cost refugees like Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon?  Who will get the ball to the ageless Mariano Rivera?  The Yanks expect flamethrower—and flameout--Kyle Farnsworth to effectively get the ball to their closer, but that could be simply adding fuel to the fire.  The Yanks will be like all those incarnations of Boston teams—looking to outscore the opposition.  And we all know how often that works.

       There are other, more minor, reasons why each of these teams will struggle to make the playoffs.  The Yanks will be depending on Jason Giambi to play first base and there is little reason to think that he can physically hold up to playing defense as well as hitting.  After all how much HGH can one man take?  The club will also be looking at Johnny Damon covering a lot of ground in spacious Yankee Stadium, and while Damon, at one stage of his career, could have easily covered such a massive area, he has slowed down a little and won’t be able to make up for a quickly slowing, and ever-grumbling—Gary Sheffield in right field.  And how will Robinson Cano handle second now that he has the position to himself and is expected to perform at a high level day in and day out?  So many questions.

       The Red Sox are hoping—hoping—for a return to form of third baseman Mike Lowell.  They are also hoping—hoping—that Kevin Youklis and J.T. Snow will provide enough offense at first base.  They are also hoping—hoping—that they don’t run into too many injuries since there isn’t a lot of offensive depth in the organization, and they certainly keep hoping that David Ortiz continues his ascent as one of baseball’s great clutch hitters and that the Manny sideshow doesn’t derail the entire train.

       The White Sox line-up looks solid on both sides of the ball.  Jim Thome should return to club a bunch of home runs and there is little reason to think that Paul Konerko won’t pound out his 40+ as well.  However, the Sox were the third lowest scoring club in the A.L. last season and while they have added Thome, they are handing centerfield to an unproven rookie.  It is likely that the Sox will continue to struggle to score runs and unless their pitching staff can bail them out the way they did last year this team is geared for a fall.  Not to mention the most important facet of this year—this club will find it much more difficult being the hunted.  Last year they came out of nowhere—a surprise club that won a ton of games because they scored first and then had their pitchers protect the lead.  There is no way that sort of thing can happen two years in a row.

       So, if I think that all three teams will take a slight dip from last year which teams do I think will rise up to replace them?  Well, Cleveland is primed for a pennant victory after two years of being close, Oakland looks to have improved on their 88 win team from last year, Texas has added pitching and defense to their hard-hitting line-up, and Toronto should garner about 70 wins from their starting staff—with 90+ wins a realistic goal.  So here are my predictions—

 East –New York (Experience will net them the division)

Central—Cleveland (As solid a team as there is in the AL)

West—Oakland (They have six starters and a young flame throwing closer)

Wild card—Toronto (They will edge out Chicago on the final weekend)

Players to watch—Grady Sizemore, Jhonny Peralta (Indians), Alex Rios (Jays), Rich Harden (A’s), Casey Kotchman (Angels) and Scott Kazmir (Rays).