March 30, 2008

THERE ARE TOO MANY IFS WHEN IT COMES TO THIS JAY SEASON

Predictions are the order of business as the baseball season begins. In the Fan 590’s baseball blog–the one written by my compatriot Mike Wilner (even though I have not only never met him I have never spoken to him and we wouldn’t be able to pick each other out of a very small parcel of people even if we were wearing name tags and t-shirts bearing our blog titles I have to assume that we are classified as compatriots) he has made his predictions for the year. Naturally being on the Blue Jay beat he has an interest in hoping the Jays have a successful season and he has chosen the Jays to make the playoffs. I may not be on the Jay beat but as a fan I have my interests as well. I just don’t have the same confidence in the club. I wish I did, but I don’t.

Why? Because this is a club where the operative word for any success is IF. So if the starting rotation stays healthy, if Vernon and Lyle rebound, if BJ returns to form, if their old catching holds up. If…if…if. If the bullpen doesn’t have any more injury flare-ups. If…if…if. Too many intangibles. If the three young starters continue their development. If..if..if.

I do believe this club can be competitive. Their pitching was tremendous last season despite the injuries and if all those ifs hold up and McGowan and Marcum and Litsch and League and Ryan and Vernon and Lyle continue to progress and/or return to form then the Jays will be right there with the Yanks and the Sox. That’s just too many ifs.

I also believe that their offensive philosophy is completely wrong. With this pitching staff it is incumbent upon the offense to produce runs any way possible. The ideology that you don’t want to give up an out (sacrifice bunting as an example) is absolutely ludicrous and smacks of short-sightedness. The Jays hate to bunt. They hate hitting and running just a little less than bunting. They believe that they don’t want to take the bat out of their hitter’s hands. So instead they leave them up their to swing and miss until the inning ends and another zero is put on the board. With this pitching staff they should insist on getting early leads (even if it means bunting in the first inning), on scoring runs however and whenever possible and moving runners over. Last years’ club was one of the worst situational hitting clubs I have ever seen. Sitting back and waiting for the big hit is nice if you have a bunch of big hitters, but this line-up has Frank Thomas in its middle. Nuff said.

Now, if the club learned its lesson last season and now realizes that winning baseball is relatively simple (get a runner on, get him over and get him in) then they have a chance. If they think they can hit with the Yanks and the Sox…well, it will be another unfulfilling summer for Jay fans.

I believe the Yanks can be had. They have to many question marks with their pitching staff. Even the Sox have issues–their pitching looks vulnerable. Same with Detroit, and same with Cleveland. The Jays look to have the best overall pitching staff in the league. It will come down to health, as usual, and whether they play smart baseball or whether they play the kind of game we witnessed last year.

So I still think Boston and New York will make the playoffs (that’s how much confidence I have in JP being smart) with Detroit and the Angels also making it. In the NL I think it will be the Mets, the Phillies, the Cubs and the Padres. The Mets are the only team with the possibility of producing a club that can compete with the AL winner in the World Series.

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