April 13, 2004

SEASON PREVIEW:  A MISTAKE TO ASSUME YANKS, SOX WILL DOMINATE

       With the tons of money tossed around this off-season by the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox it would be logical to assume that the World Series championship will come from one of these two highly expensive veteran outfits.  That assumption, however, is far from a certainty since not only there are many other outfits in both leagues that improved themselves, but there also seems to be trouble lurking on the horizon for baseball’s biggest spenders.

       We’ll start the season preview in, what else, baseball’s best division—the A.L. East.  Yes, the Yankees look like an all-star squad, adding A-Rod and Gary Sheffield to an already potent line-up.  But the pitching staff could be an Achilles heal for the club.  Losing Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens and David Wells meant that the Yanks had to overhaul their starting staff.  They did so acquiring Javier Vazquez and Kevin Brown.  The Yanks also upgraded their bullpen, enabling an aging Mariano Rivera to be more of a one-inning closer.  But the Yanks have so many aging veterans that it is possible for many things to go wrong.  First, there are injuries.  Second, there is the possibility that some of these players have seen their better days.  And in the case of Vazquez, for instance, he has never played in such a pressure-packed and volatile environment.  And, speaking of volatility, who knows how Sheffield will react the first time he strikes out with the bases loaded in a key situation and gets booed by the home crowd.  When will the Jeter/A-Rod friendship/arch-rivalry shortstop debate blow up?  Every championship club has to have its share of plough-horses—those that think of the team first.  The Yankees are made up of star quality superstar type players who have always had things their own way.  This club is a ticking time bomb.

       Meanwhile, the Red Sox tried to keep pace with the Joneses.  They already possessed a powerful offensive unit and instead went about improving their weakness—pitching and defense.  Thus, the organization went to great lengths to acquire Curt Schilling and then signed Keith Foulke to be their closer.  The Sox look like they have the more complete club and, having come so close last season, are eager to make the next step.  The problems facing the Red Sox are different than face the Yankees, but just as volatile.  Can Schilling be the missing link?  Can Pedro put together another effective year despite the fact that he is quickly losing velocity?  Will the quarrelsome and desultory A-Rod non-acquisition negatively affect the two principals remaining in Boston?  And of course, how will “the Curse” affect this year’s squad?  The organization and the city are crowing, “This is the year”.  In Boston, however, whenever hopes are high the team inevitably finds a way to “choke it up”.

       The Toronto Blue Jays believe that they are an improved club, and that they are ready to compete for a playoff spot.  Having revamped their entire pitching staff, behind Cy Young winner Roy Halladay the Jays believe they have the pitching to match their devastating offense.  Miguel Batista was signed to pitch out of the number two spot in the rotation and Ted Lilly and Pat Hentgen were brought in to add depth to the staff.  J.P. Ricciardi also reworked his bullpen—the only holdovers are Aquilino Lopez and Jason Kershner.  But while the Jays will score runs, and their pitching will be better they are still not ready for prime time.  The line-up is still young and hasn’t quite grasped the concept of quality at-bats, there are a bevy of number three, four, five starters but no quality number two to back Halladay, and without an established closer the bullpen will find new ways to blow leads.  With some dominating arms and some excellent hitters down on the farm and presumably ready for the big time next season the future is certainly bright for this club.  The future, however, is not this year.

       The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Devil Rays are also improved over last season.  The Orioles made some big splashes in the free agent market signing Miguel Tejada, Javy Lopez and Rafael Palmeiro.  There will definitely be more excitement at Camden Yards this year but since they failed to address their greatest need—pitching, the team is destined for another fourth place finish.  The Rays are in the second year of a rebuilding program under manager Lou Piniella.  Last year the team discovered that it had some jewels in Aubrey Huff, Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli, and this year the organization added some veterans to help the youngsters grow.  The team, though, does not have enough depth and enough pitching to move up in this ultra-competitive division.

       There isn’t a need to spend too much time in the A.L. Central.  The team that wins 85 games in this division could end up winning it.  Minnesota lost some key players off last season’s playoff club and the White Sox look like they are destined for another sub-par year.  Kansas City could make the biggest jump, but they also have a ton of holes—especially in their pitching staff, that they could win, and they could also fall to fourth.  Detroit is improved, but they could be 20 games better and still lose 100 games and Cleveland is still trying to rebuild.  

       The A.L. West could prove to be the most exciting race.  Oakland has dominated this division in the regular season but has failed to win a playoff series.  Seattle had one record breaking season and is aging fast, and Anaheim won the World Series two years ago, fell back to the pack last year, and looks like they are about to take another run at the title this year.  The A’s will one day feel the pain of losing superstar players to higher spending clubs.  As long as they have that powerful trio of starting pitcher, however, they will be in 60% of their games, and win a good majority of them.  This club can win 90 games by just riding the backs of Mulder, Zito and Hudson—but that may be as good as they get this season.  The Mariners should have a marketing deal in place with age supplements such as Geritol and Viagra.  There aren’t any youngsters on the horizon either so their window for success is drawing to a close.  They had one spectacular season, but couldn’t close the deal that year, and it may have been their last chance.  They will probably finish third in a division that will likely be won by the Angels.  With all the off-season drama being dominated by New York and Boston the Angels went out and secured the best player on the market—Vladimir Guerrerro, and the best starter—Bartolo Colon.  The team has rebuilt its starting staff, has a much better line-up and has a solid bullpen anchored by Troy Percival.   

      Five teams—Oakland, Seattle, Anaheim, New York, and Boston will battle for three playoff spots.  The two teams likely to be on the outside looking in come October—Seattle and Oakland.  As I said there really isn’t a need discussing the Central, which will have a playoff participant simply because the system asks for one.  My choice to come out of the A.L. is Anaheim.  I think Boston and New York will beat on each other, and each will have too many distractions to be totally effective going into the playoffs.