Daily

April 22, 2004

SEASON PREVIEW: THE NL TITLE IS CENTRALLY LOCATED THIS YEAR

The winds of change will blow through the National League this season. Perennial champions the Atlanta Braves will see their streak of consecutive division titles come to an end. In their stead come teams with a history of folding up in the clutch the way lawn chairs are folded up in the autumn. The Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros have pieced together clubs that should lead the way this year, and if everything falls into place for them one of these clubs will be representing the league in the World Series.

So let’s start the N.L. preview in that Central Division. Last year the Bartman Cubs came within five outs of winning the N.L. crown. That’s when the history of failure seeped into the Cub players’ minds and allowed the Marlins to come back and win the series. This year the Cubs and their fans have gone to great lengths to exorcise those infamous ghosts. The Bartman ball was bought by a Cubs fan and then blown up in a ceremonial event designed to blast away the team’s curse. Back on earth the Cubs themselves have improved over last year. Added to a division-winning club are Greg Maddux, gold glove first baseman Derrek Lee and hard throwing reliever Latroy Hawkins. The team is much better, and if they stay healthy should win close to 100 games this year.

The Houston Astros are the only other team that can, on paper, compete with the Cubs. The Astros already possessed a solid hitting club—their deficiencies were with the pitching staff, more specifically the starters. The team had a solid bullpen, anchored by a since traded Billy Wagner, but beyond the top two starters there was nothing but rookies and retreads. This off-season the Astros made a big splash signing both Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens. Now, along with holdovers Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller, the Astros can throw four solid starters at the opposition. The bullpen will need time to sort itself out, with overpowering set-up man Octavio Dotel now moving into the closer’s role. But with the added experience and talent at the front end of the rotation, a solid bullpen and a powerful offense the Astros look to be the best team in the league. They will need to overcome their playoff failures though, as the team has never won a series in their 42-year history.

Not making much news in the off-season were the St. Louis Cardinals. The team with the best line-up and the best defense in the league did not do much to improve its pitching staff, and will have a hard time keeping up with the top two teams in the division. But if either the Cubs or the Astros falter the Cardinals have the talent to move up. Otherwise the Cards are going to need some surprises to come out of their pitching rotation if they want to contend for the division.

There is a huge gap between the top three teams in the division and the bottom three. The Cincinnati Red have a solid line-up that, if healthy, can hit with almost anybody in the league, but with very little pitching will have a hard time staying around the .500 mark. Injuries have curtailed each of the previous three years for Ken Griffey Jr.-- he has hit a grand total of 45 homers in those three years—a total that was an average annual number in Seattle. If Griffey can stay healthy he will most assuredly hit his 500^th homer this year-- he came in just 19 short of the number—but the hope and the hype that he would eventually be the one to break Hank Aaron’s career mark has certainly waned.

The Brewers are rebuilding, having traded away their one power hitter (Richie Sexson) and possess the lowest payroll in the NL. The Pirates keep hoping their youngsters will one day carry them to respectability, but this is definitely not the year.

The East will see a turnover. The annual coronation that has been expected in Atlanta will end this year—the team can no longer lay claim to the league’s best pitching staff. Gone are both Maddux and Glavine, and with John Smoltz suffering though some problematic injuries it may be time for the Braves to look at their farm system and contemplate rebuilding. But when they look down the once bright farm system seems depleted so the club continues to try and patch up their major league team. The offense is not what it was last year either. Gone are Gary Sheffield, Javier Lopez and Vinny Castilla. Where once the Braves would be able whether such a roster shake-up now their pitching staff cannot compensate. The Braves will likely miss the playoffs entirely this year.

The East is the Philadelphia Phillies division to win. The Phillies have put together the most complete club in the division and with the expected return to form of Pat Burrell and the additions of Tim Worrell and Billy Wagner to the bullpen the Phillies look to have the best club. The problem may be that temperamental manager Larry Bowa will bring this talented squad down to his level with his tantrums, his moronic outbursts, and his critical nature. If so then the Florida Marlins will happily gobble up the division crown. The defending World Champions are not as strong as they were last year, but with the development of their young pitchers the Marlins just might win as many games. Their most notable departure was catcher Ivan Rodriguez, but the addition of Armando Benitez gives the club a solid closer.

The Mets and the Expos will be looking up all year. The Mets are trying to rebuild their club, not with youngsters, but with veterans that aren’t as injury-prone as their previous squad. The Expos are just trying to make it though the season hoping that this will finally be year their situation is resolved. After losing all-world superstar Vladamir Guerrerro the Expos will be hard pressed to score runs and should struggle to win 75 games.

The West Division will belong to any team that overachieves. None of the teams in this division look to have a chance at competing with the stronger clubs in the league, but if one club can put it all together and play above its collective heads then it can win the division. The most likely candidate for this is the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers couldn’t have scored runs last season even if their leadoff hitters were given third base to start each inning. But with the additions of Milton Bradley and Jaun Encarnacion, and the return to health of Shawn Green the Dodgers could score enough to support their solid pitching staff. And with Cy Young winner Eric Gagne anchoring the bullpen late leads are as safe as a bank vault.

The Giants are the next likely club to win the division. With Barry Bonds not looking like he is turning 40, and with Ray Durham looking like the igniter of old this club should be able to score runs. The hole on this team is the pitching staff—and it’s a big hole. The starting staff is not deep—especially if Jason Schmidt is hurt for any length of time—and the relief staff suffers greatly if closer Robb Nen is unavailable.

The Padres look improved, but for a club that finished last the previous year how could it help but not look improved. The pitching staff looks decent, the line-up looks decent and the relief core looks decent. All of which adds up to the Padres being a decent club. Decent, however, doesn’t win many division crowns.

The Rockies are reverting back to their powerful days of monstrous home run totals and very few wins, and the Arizona Diamondbacks look like they are on the verge of retiring their entire roster. It’s hard to believe that Randy Johnson, coming off an injury-plagued year, is expected at age 40 to be able to return to his Cy Young best. If he pulls off that miracle then maybe the D’backs can contend—otherwise like him the team’s best years are behind them.

So, in conclusion I believe that the Astros will be the league’s best this year, and they will play the Cubs for the league crown. The Dodgers will win the West and the Marlins will win the East. The Astros will then beat the Angels and win the World Series. As Vin Scully would say—how about that.