April 26, 2005

MARLINS, CARDINALS LOOK TO BE THE FAVOURITES IN NL

      One of the wonderful things about having my own website is that I can take as much time as I need before making predictions.  After all, with very little opportunity to see the baseball clubs during spring training I need the first few weeks of the season to evaluate the talent on each major league roster.  In the National League it appears that, outside of the Florida Marlins, the gap between the defending champion Cardinals and the rest of the league has increased.  The Marlins, with a superb young starting staff, could be the only club that gives the Cards a run for their money.

       The Cardinals return basically the same squad that won more than 100 games last season.  The team lost shortstop Edgar Renteria and catcher Mike Matheny but replaced each with capable personnel.  Though David Eckstein won’t hit, and won’t field, at the same level as Renteria, he will provide even more fire and intensity to a club that already boasts Scott Rolen, Albert Pujols, and Jim Edmunds.  As well the Cards will have the luxury of having future hall of famer (perhaps) Larry Walker in the line-up for a full season.  The biggest off-season addition, however, was the acquisition of Mark Mulder from Oakland.  Mulder teams with Matt Morris and Chris Carpenter to give the Cards a staff that can match up with the better staffs in the league.   

      The Marlins made some big noise in the off-season throwing tons of dough at free agent Carlos Delgado.  The big first baseman was brought in to anchor their line-up and provide some left handed pop to balance out a mostly right handed hitting line-up.  If Miguel Cabrera continues to develop into one of the games finest young hitters and Mike Lowell can protect Delgado with some right handed thunder then the Marlins should be able to score enough runs to end Atlanta’s string of division titles.  With young power pitchers like A.J. Burnett, Josh Beckett and Dontrelle Willis the Marlins will be in most games and unless a somewhat questionable bullpen blows a bunch of them the Marlins should be the Cards’ main competitor for the NL crown.

       Surprisingly, there are few other clubs that have the talent to compete with the top two teams.  The Braves always find success during the regular season, but with a revamped starting staff and very little offense to support it I find it doubtful that Bobby Cox will be able to work his usual magic.  The Braves are hoping to find lightening in a bottle with a couple of reclamation projects in Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan.  But unless the Braves find some ready-made talent in their farm system, or can pull off a miraculous trade they won’t be in contention this year.

       The New York Mets will be better this year—how can they not after spending hundreds of millions of dollars on free agents Carlos Beltran and Pedro Martinez.  The Mets do not have much depth, however, and will likely finish at or a little above .500.  The Philadelphia Phillies should be better than they are, but this underachieving club seems to lack fire, and whatever fire they possessed last season was in now deposed manager Larry Bowa.  The newly minted Washington Nationals will be a nice club this season that satisfies their new DC fans and finishes with a respectable record, but in the U.S. capital’s traditional place—last.

       The Houston Astros have undergone quite an overhaul.  This was a club that came within three innings of making it to the World Series but has lost its best player, Beltran, and a clutch hitter in Jeff Kent.  The Astros have decided to continue to play shift the marble with Craig Biggio moving the former all-star out of the outfield and back to his original second base position.  The Astros, with Roger Clemens, Roy Oswalt, a healthy Andy Pettitte, and dominant closer Brad Lidge have enough pitching, but they will need to make a couple of moves to pick up some hitting or they will be out of contention by August.  The other main contender in the Central, the Chicago Cubs, have already suffered a major loss as shortstop Nomar Garciaparra is out until after the all-star break after tearing a groin muscle.  If the Cubs remain healthy—mostly with their vaunted starting pitching staff—then they can stay within reach of the Cards until then, but the lack of a bullpen will ultimately, once again, break Cub fans hearts. 

      The West is up for grabs now that Barry Bonds has taken his sulking attitude and his wonky knee home.  The Giants have by far the oldest club in the NL and as such are vulnerable to injury.  If the Giants are still in contention by the time Bonds returns it will be because manager Felipe Alou has manipulated his roster like a magician.  The Dodgers look good early, but have a ton of holes that will be exposed in time.  The starting staff is mediocre; the line-up lacks punch and if Eric Gagne doesn’t return to his dominant form the Dodgers could be out of contention by mid-season.  The Padres look like the team ready to make the jump to contender status.  They have a core of solid young starters, a veteran closer in Trevor Hoffman, and a bevy of established hitters.  Only inexperience could keep the Padres from the division crown.

       In the end, like last season, the West will provide only one playoff team, the division winner, and that club will be ousted in the first round.  The Cards and the Marlins should win their respective divisions, and should meet in the NL championship.  St. Louis should not only win the NL crown but also finish the job it started last season and win the World Series. 

Next week—the American League.