May 12, 2003

HOT STARTS WILL COOL DOWN WHEN WARM WEATHER ARRIVES

      While the Yankees strong start is far from surprising the hot starts from the San Francisco Giants and Seattle Mariners were somewhat unexpected, and the Kansas City Royals are just plain off the charts when it comes to shock and awe.  But as the weather warms and pitchers’ arms start to wilt under the summer heat the fast starts will fade and the true measures of contenders will be exhibited.  The Yankees will likely cruise to a division title—they’ll just buy to fill whatever need arises—and the Giants look to have their division sewn up as they battle a collection of non-entities.  The Mariners look to be solid enough to contend for the entire season but the Royals will soon learn what it is like to play real baseball teams after spending a month competing against the minor leaguers from Detroit and Cleveland.   

       Let’s first deal with the Yankees since according to Ol’ George everything begins and ends there anyway.  There is enough firepower on this team to keep them from any lengthy slumps—they’ll just hit enough until they pull out a 12-10 victory—but their aging pitching staff could run into problems in the summer heat.  After Roger Clemens wins his 300^th he won’t have any personal glory to seek and that will reduce his effectiveness, at least until the stretch run and the playoffs.  David Wells has constant battles with gout and with his mouth and both have a tendency to keep him from being successful.  Andy Pettitte is beginning to show signs of wear and tear after pitching into October ever year of his career and the closest Jeff Weaver has ever been to an important game is as a guest.  Mike Mussina looks like he has regained his control and has dominated the early going, but the Moose’s collar usually tightens when the games matter most.  The vaunted Yankee depth may not be as strong as anticipated as Jose Contreras couldn’t find the strike zone and found his way to Columbus, and Mariano Rivera is looking like he’s thrown far too many playoff pitches.  Sounds like a mid-season trade is in the offing.  The Yankees can always count, though, on the Red Sox gagging up a fur ball as September approaches, so they need worry only how the team looks and plays in October.

       Last season looked as if the Mariners were beginning a downward spiral after their record-breaking 2001 season.  Age was once again a factor as the key players on the team started to see gray hairs in their beards and on their sideburns.  But Edgar Martinez is showing that at age 40 he is still one of baseball’s more dangerous hitters, and Jamie Moyer looks like he’ll pitch until he’s 50—it’s not like he’s ever going to lose much off his fastball since he’s never owned one.  Rebound years from Mike Cameron and Bret Boone would balance out a line-up that showed severe deficiencies during last season’s stretch run.  The biggest surprise for the Mariners is that one of their highly touted prospects is healthy and proving that he was worth the organization’s pain and effort in developing him.  Gil Meche could be the ace starter the team has lacked, and if he becomes that top drawer pitcher it would move Moyer into a more comfortable number two spot in the rotation and Freddy Garcia to a much more viable third spot.  Suddenly the M’s might have a starting staff that could at least match the Athletics staff and give them a fighting chance against the league favourites from Oakland.

       The Giants are simply doing what everyone in baseball knew was possible—give Felipe Alou some talent and watch him win.  The Red Sox wanted him last season but Alou is too smart to try and survive in that mess, especially after his long-time pitching coach Joe Kerrigan was promoted to manager, a position he was far from qualified for, simply because Dan Duquette didn’t like Jimy Williams.  Duquette may be gone but the Red Sox penchant for faltering in the clutch remains—and any baseball man with a good pedigree should and would stay far away.  Alou has always been a player’s manager—someone capable of procuring the top level of production from a player—and his career on the field and as a manager automatically garners him the respect needed to handle someone with the monstrous ego of a Barry Bonds. 

         The success of the Giants also proves that, without a doubt, Brian Sabean is in the upper echelon of baseball executives.  The Giants GM watched as his 100 RBI second sacker, his right fielder and his center fielder fled through free agency, and instead of throwing bagfuls of money at them trying to keep a World Series team together, he simply went about rebuilding the roster.  His trade of Russ Ortiz for Damian Moss was made mostly because of money, but Sabean’s feel for the game enabled him to acquire a younger and cheaper pitcher with a high level of potential.  With the Dodgers fielding a very expensive and a very mediocre outfit and the Diamondbacks running out of geritol for their aging players the Giants need only avoid injuries and complacency.  The loss of Robb Nen will hurt, and could ruin their chance of returning to the World Series, but then look for Sabean to bolster his bullpen in-season by acquiring someone of the stature of say Kelvim Escobar for the stretch run.

       I’ve left the Royals for last for the simple reason that apart from the Tigers and the Indians that’s where they would finish.  Sure their hot start has improved the morale of the team and the interest of the hometown fans, but in the end the Royals will be hard pressed to finish at .500 for the season.  Still this projects as a successful season when compared to last years’ 100 loss campaign, and the potential exhibited by their young pitching staff does give the organization, and the city, some hope for the future.  But for now the division belongs to the Twins, and maybe the White Sox.

       The Atlanta Braves have looked solid, like they always do, and the Phillies look like they have enough to compete for the division crown.  The Expos will continue to be a story for many for the wrong reasons, and when hometown hero Eric Gagne was cheered after saving a game against the home club it became crystal clear just how little this town cares about their team.  The Cardinals look like the class of the National League Central, but if the Cubs continue to get the kind of pitching they’ve received through the first month then they could have enough to surprise.  The Astros look like they have enough to compete, but not enough to win.  

       The month of May will separate the contenders from the pretenders, and as June hits and the warm weather arrives those contenders will begin to discover the defects in their rosters.  How they react to the discoveries could prove which teams will be playing in October and which teams will be whining about bad luck, bad scheduling, and bad weather as they take their golf clubs out of their car trunks.