May 20, 2005

AGE AND EXCESS ABOUT TO CRUMBLE YANKEE DYNASTY

      The signs are apparent.  The Yankees re no longer the very efficient--and very expensive--machine that rolls through your town and sucks up victories like a power vacuum cleaner sucks up dirt.  They do not inspire fear in their opponents as they have done for more than a decade.  No, these Yankees are a doddering version of an aging all-star team on the decline, but one that still stubbornly believes that they are one player away from the ultimate prize. The Yankees will be nip and tuck simply to make the playoffs this season.

       The Boston Red Sox have suddenly become the team to beat the A.L. East, and with last season’s surprising World Series triumph, will not have the ghosts of past failures to shackle them come stretch time.  The Sox have a very deep squad—solid starting pitching, a quality bullpen and a powerful line-up, and this will eventually lead them to the top of the division.  While it is likely that the Yankees, a team that still has an enormous amount, however old, of talent will make a run at the top before season’s end they don’t have enough to sustain it over the long haul.  The Yankee pitching staff is already faltering and needs to rely upon the inconsistent Kevin Brown and the often overmatched Carl Pavano to even compete.  The roster is aging quickly and, outside of Derek Jeter and A-Rod, are on the downside of their careers.  This is a $200 million ship, a baseball Titanic, on course to strike an iceberg, and while it won’t completely happen this year the future looks very bleak indeed.  There isn’t a farm system to speak of and the Yankee strategy of throwing money at players to fill the needs of the team will not work in the future as players will not want to come aboard a sinking ship.

       This may not be the year for either the Baltimore Orioles of the Toronto Blue Jays but at least both clubs can feel the satisfaction of being on an upward trend.  The Orioles have a veteran line-up and youthful pitching staff that could push them into contention as early as this year.  While it is more likely that the Orioles will falter once the season pushes past the halfway mark, the strides the club will reach this year will help them down the road.  The Blue Jays, on the other hand, have an abundance of young talent that simply needs time and a sprinkling of some veteran talent to get them over the hump.  The Jays still need a quality starter and a big bopper, preferably right-handed, in the middle of their line-up.  Some depth on their bench couldn’t hurt either.  The sad-sack Tampa Bay Devil Rays are caught in an ownership squeeze that will limit their abilities to grow until the situation is resolved.  Who knows whether manager Lou Piniella will last until then.

       The Central Division will ultimately come down to battle between Minnesota and Chicago.  It is rather doubtful that the White Sox will be able to maintain their phenomenal early season record; the mediocre talent base will eventually return the club to its own level.  At that time the superior Twins squad will pass them and win the division.  The Sox, though, could maintain a strong enough pace to compete with the Yankees, the Rangers and possibly the Orioles for the wild card spot.  The Sox have a quality starting rotation and some depth in the bullpen, but their line-up has too many holes to be able to sustain their success over the length of a season.  Now, if the Sox can, at the deadline or at some other time, add some solid lumber—and I’m not referring to the return of the over-the-hill Frank Thomas—then Chicago can vault itself right back into the divisional race.  The Twins are built around a solid, and deep, pitching staff, tremendous defense and, of course, the experience of having won three successive division titles.  It is unfortunate that the Cleveland Indians are experiencing some form of a sophomore slump, and have not been able to maintain their upper echelon offensive pace they created last season.  The Indians would have been an exciting team to watch come stretch time.  The Tigers are slowly getting better, but are still years away, and the Royals continue to float along the same mediocre river stream that holds the Devil Rays.

       The best team in the league, however, resides in the West.  The Angels—of whatever city—have built the best overall club in the league and unless they are ravaged by injuries are likely to be the lone runaway division winner in the league.  Their closest pursuer, the Texas Rangers, still have too many holes to compete.  Their other divisional rivals are in a rebuilding mode.  The Oakland A’s have retooled their pitching staff around some young and talented arms, but it may take a year or two before the group, led by Rich Harden, will have enough experience to maintain the high consistency needed to contend.  There are some hitters on the way up in the A’s farm system as well and this means that this year will simply be a changing of the guard in Oakland.  In Seattle, however, the franchise believed that it was just a couple of hitters away from competing so they signed big budget free agents Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson.  Granted neither player is considered old and should be able to sustain a semblance of all-star number for years to come, but this year’s Mariners club, while better than last season’s, is still a number of parts away from contention.  The M’s are hoping that those two players, and Ichiro, will be enough to keep the team afloat while it rebuilds around them.  For their sake they better not take too long. The Rangers have some pitching question marks and lack a solid veteran hitter in the middle of their line-up.  They are close, perhaps wild card contention close- but not close enough to catch the Angels.

       The Angels have the most complete team in the league and should defeat the Red Sox in the A.L. championship series—a spot of revenge for last year’s Red Sox Division playoff sweep.  The Angles will then go on to lose a very hard-fought, and closely matched World Series against former Angel Jim Edmunds and the St. Louis Cardinals.