June 1, 2006

OH NO!  NOT ANOTHER LIST!  BASEBALL POWER RANKINGS DONE RIGHT

       Everywhere an interested sports reader turns—be it newspapers, magazines or the internet--some so-called expert is putting together some kind of list or ranking.  Whether it’s teams or players that writer figures they’ve got the goods on who is best and who is worst.  In reality nobody has a clue—it’s all a guessing game--and I have been loathe to enter into this particular venue since there is no way to win and a helluva lot of ways to lose.  However, if I’m going to make predictions—which I rarely do since the results typically make you look like a fool—then I might as well put a list/ranking together.  After all, if all these other sports writers can get away with it…why can’t I?

       So here’s my list of the top ten baseball teams so far this year.

1-     Chicago White Sox.  Once again a reason why I don’t like to make predictions since I thought the Sox would have a let down this year and the Indians would win the division.  Oh well.  The Sox couldn’t possibly be happier with the addition of Jim Thome who has solidified a line-up that was little better than average last season.  The depth of the starting pitching staff has allowed the team to not only avoid any lengthy losing streak, but has given them the opportunity to put several minor win streaks together.  Bobby Jenks has so far followed up his spectacular rookie campaign giving the team the confidence that late inning leads will be protected.  At this point they do not appear to have an equal in all of baseball.

2-     St. Louis Cardinals.   Albert Pujols is enough of a talent to overcome a bevy of holes, and the Cardinals are showing that they have a number of holes they seriously need to fill if they have title aspirations.  Jim Edmonds may have severe health problems, a suspected sports hernia, and could be lost to the team for some time.  As well ace starter Chris Carpenter may be developing arm problems and for a team that is seriously depleted in starters his loss for any length of time could be devastating.  Closer Jason Isringhausen has shown chinks in his armour this season and does not look to have the same dominating stuff as he has had in years past.  But as long as Pujols continues to drive in runs at a record pace the Cards will be a major contender.

3-     New York Mets.  While it is likely that the Mets have played over their heads in the early part of the season there is no denying that they have the talent to win the East and end Atlanta’s long division winning streak.  Starters Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine have given the team a solid one-two punch and though Carlos Delgado is in the midst of a relatively lengthy slump he does effectively balance out the line-up.  The best hitter, though, is David Wright who looks like he will be the league’s best third baseman for years to come.  Billy Wagner has not been perfect so far but he gives the team an established closer who will succeed far more often than he will fail.  For this team to be ultimately successful though Delgado will need to consistently provide the pop in the middle of the line-up that he did during the first month of the season.

4-     Boston Red Sox.  The Sox are a little bit of a surprise in the early going and are proving, once again, that despite his age GM Theo Epstein certainly knows the game of baseball.  The Sox went against type this year and subtracted some offense to add defense.  The infield has been more than solid—the team leads the majors in fielding percentage and when was the last time a Boston team could boast about that.  Jonathan Papelbon has been perfect as closer, and with such outstanding stuff he looks like he could be baseball’s pre-eminent closer for many years.  The area of concern for this club is their starting pitching.  Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett will need to continue to be the dominant one-two punch for this team to have any chance at making the playoffs.

5-     New York Yankees.    The depth of the Yankee line-up is such that they have been able to withstand injuries to Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui.  The Matsui loss, likely for the season, could prove to be huge as the season moves into the hot summer months and the aging sluggers start to wilt a bit in the heat.  The pitching does not appear to be a strength and if the line-up cannot produce enough runs to compensate for the pitching woes then the Yankees could be the ones on the outside looking in come playoff time.  The Yanks though, will find a way, later in the season, to cover up one, or some, of their holes through trades.

6-     Toronto Blue Jays.  Another team that can knock the cover off the ball but can’t put together a long winning streak due to pitching concerns.  The starting staff that was supposed to carry the team through the season has been in disarray this year.  A.J. Burnett has given the team almost nothing, Josh Towers imploded, and Ted Lilly has been wildly inconsistent.  The bullpen, something that was supposed to be a team strength, has been average.  A bright spot this season in pitching is closer B.J. Ryan who is giving the team the type of closer the club hasn’t seen since the Duane Ward, Tom Henke days.  If this team can’t solve it’s pitching problems though, and with their inexperience in playing playoff caliber games late in the season, the Jays will finish third in the division.  But if Burnett returns and the pitching staff can simply be consistent then the Jays could actually win the division.

7-     Detroit Tigers.  Hands up those who predicted that the Tigers would be a contender this year?  Nobody?  I thought so.  But the Tigers are riding a solid five man pitching staff and a string of games against feeble competition right to the top of the Central Division.  Now while their sudden rise to the top will not last the mediocrity in their division could give the Tigers a leg up in the wild card race.  The starters, outside of Kenny Rogers, are young though and haven’t proven themselves over a season.  The club recently lost Mike Maroth and that could be a huge loss since the club doesn’t have much depth in starters.  The bullpen has been solid and the offense has been consistent.  Still, this is a club that could see a major drop once the second half of the season gets underway.

8-     Houston Astros.  I know, I know.  Roger Clemens is coming back, and the ultimate, outside of maybe Barry Bonds, selfish ballplayer will likely help the Astros get back to the playoffs.  Clemens will combine with Andy Pettitte and Roy Oswalt to give the team three all-star caliber starters.  If closer Brad Lidge can finally overcome his demons—he still sees the home run that Albert Pujols hit off him in the playoffs last season and is prone to avoiding the strike zone when he doesn’t feel as if he’s got all of his electric stuff—then the Astros will be a contender.  They could probably use another hitter for their line-up but as long as their pitching lives up to its potential then the Astros will be right there at the end.

9-     Philadelphia Phillies.  The Phillies have been on a roller coaster ride all season—unbeatable one week, a complete mess the next.  The club has enough offense—the middle of the line-up has tons of power with Chase Utley, Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, and Ryan Howard.  The Achilles heal with this team, like most teams, is with its pitching.  The starters don’t look like they have enough to overcome the more talented teams in the league and unless GM Pat Gillick can make a major move to acquire some pitching then the club will continue to be up one week and down the next.  Tom Gordon has been terrific as the closer and the relief corps have been solid as a unit but without a true number one starter and with a group of mostly mediocre starters the Phillies will likely fail in its playoff bid.

10- Los Angeles Dodgers.  Well, I had to take somebody from the average NL West division, didn’t I?  The Dodgers have been at or near the top of the division without any help from long time closer and former Cy Young winner Eric Gagne, and with very little help from star slugger Jeff Kent.  The Dodgers however have been buoyed by the return to prominence of former all-star shortstop and now first baseman Nomar Garciaparra.  If the Dodgers are going to have chance this season, and realistically every team in that division has a chance to be first round playoff fodder, then they will need to stay healthy and hope the starting pitching continues to provide the quality starts it has provided through the early part of the year. 

       So there you have it.  Noticeable by their absences are the perennial NL East division winning Atlanta Braves, the defending NL West division champs from San Diego, anybody from the AL West, and the supposed AL Central contenders from Cleveland.  That’s not to say that these teams don’t have enough talent to compete in the second half of the season, but their first halves have been something less than competitive.  Remember, though, these rankings are simply one mans opinion…take that for what it’s worth.