June 9, 2003

ALOMAR HEADS THE LIST OF STARS THAT CAN EXPECT TO BE TRADED

     The arrival of the month of June means that one-third of the baseball season has passed and the contenders have begun to separate themselves from the pretenders. The fast starts of Kansas City and Florida have proven to be illusions, as did the slow start of the Minnesota Twins, and the teams that were expected to contend have taken their rightful spots atop their particular divisions.  The two surprising teams of the season are Canadian based, somewhat, as Montreal and Toronto continue to nip at the heels of the leaders.  Whether they stay in contention through July, and toward the trade deadline, is still to be seen, but for those with serious title aspirations now is the time to pinpoint the weaknesses of their team and begin to scour the leagues for someone to fill that need. 

       There isn’t a team in the majors that couldn’t use another pitcher—or three—so to try and analyze which pitchers might be available for which teams would be fruitless.  The teams with smaller salary scales will be looking to divest themselves of heavy salaries, and this is where the contenders can look to feed.  In the National League it looks as if Atlanta is home and cooled in the East, and San Francisco is the team to beat in the West.  But the Central looks to be a three-team dogfight to the end between the Cubs, the Cardinals, and the Astros. 

       The Cardinals have, along with the Braves, the league’s strongest line-up.  From the second spot in the order down to number seven the cards can throw either patient .300 hitters or solid high average power hitters at the opposition.  If there is a weakness in the line-up it is at second base.  The organization has shown its displeasure with incumbent Fernando Vina’s inability to be patient and to increase his on base percentage.  They believe, and rightfully so, that a leadoff hitter’s strength should be getting on base.  Vina has the lowest on base percentage of any regular on the team.  When looking around the league for quality second basemen that are available the list begins and ends with Roberto Alomar.  Alomar is in the final season of a contract that pays him more than $7 million per season.  Since joining the Mets last year Alomar’s statistics have dropped drastically, but it is thought that there remains a wealth of talent in his rapidly aging body and that a change of scenery, especially if that change puts him into a pennant race, will rejuvenate him.  The Cardinals can look at Alomar’s OBP of nearly.350 while playing for a sub par team and must salivate at having him in their leadoff spot.  If the organization decides that Alomar is the key to a pennant run then expect the future hall of famer to be in Cardinal Red before the trade deadline.

       The other organization that is in a pennant race, has available money, and can certainly use a quality second baseman is the Los Angeles Dodgers.  The Dodgers have the best pitching in the league but have a far from quality line-up to support it.  Unless the organization adds a stick or two they will waste that great pitching and will not only fail to win their division they will miss the playoffs entirely.  Alomar would be a perfect fit in Los Angeles where he could stabilize second base and add a solid lead off bat.  The Dodgers could also, if they fail in their pursuit of Alomar, look to add the Blue jays Shannon Stewart.  The Dodgers have a bevy of young arms that would interest the Jays, but the Dodgers would need to find a taker for incumbent leftfielder Brian Jordan.  It would be undesirable for the Dodgers to keep Jordan and to play him in center.  With Stewart in left that would create a mediocre outfield that could let down that solid pitching staff.  The Dodgers could also look to pick up Carlos Beltran from the Royals for the same pitching prospects dangled in any deal for Alomar or Stewart.

       The Astros are quickly discovering that their line-up, one that started the season with a few question marks, is molding into a solid and functional unit.  Third baseman Morgan Ensberg has filled the hole at third base and, though he isn’t an all-star out there, Craig Biggio has become quite competent in center field.  With any kind of pitching the Astros could prove to be the elite team in such a competitive division.  The Chicago Cubs have by far the best pitching in the division, but unless Sammy Sosa starts hitting they won’t have enough offense to compete.  The Cubs also have a monstrous hole at third base.  They thought that Mark Bellhorn’s 27 home runs from last season would adequately fill the position, but it looks as if Bellhorn had a once in a lifetime year and has been an unequivocal flop this year.  There is talk that the Cubs are interested in Florida’s all-star third sacker Mike Lowell, but any trade for Lowell would have to include at least a couple of high quality prospects or players.  The Cubs may start looking at second tier third basemen, like Texas’ Herbert Perry, who could be acquired for nothing more than cash or a low ranking minor leaguer. 

       In the AL the Oakland Athletics are desperate for a quality bat.  They believe that they have enough pitching, and their infield, headed by MVP Miguel Tejada, is certainly productive, but with Jermaine Dye injured the outfield has shown a distinct lack of offense.  Fortunately for the A’s career minor league Eric Byrnes has stepped into a regular role and swung a very dependable bat to offset some of the production woes, but if the A’s are thinking about making a run at Seattle they will have to add a serious bat to their line-up.  The phone lines between Oakland and Toronto are always hot and heavy so it won’t be much of a surprise if Stewart ends up in Oakland at the deadline.  Other than Stewart the A’s could look to acquire Beltran from the Royals.  Beltran is in line for a contract that will be too heavy for the Royals, and probably too heavy for the Athletics as well, but Beltran would be very useful as an injection of power for the remainder of the season.

       The Yankees are always looking to add players, but they have to be concerned that their bullpen is being lit up regularly and they are having trouble getting the ball to Mariano Rivera.  As such the lower than expected run production from an expensive line-up will likely remain untouched.  It is thought that when Nick Johnson and Bernie Williams return and Jason Giambi starts hitting the Yankees will have more than enough offense.  The Red Sox are in the same boat.  They have enough offense--so much offense in fact that they could afford to deal Shea Hillenbrand to Arizona for Byung-Hyun Kim—but they need more pitching.  And the surprising Jays lead the league in runs so offense is definitely not a problem.  Which team pitches the best down the stretch will win the division.

      Roberto Alomar, Mike Lowell, Carlos Beltran…three mega-star hitters that could and likely will be moved by the trade deadline.  These three players could have an impact on the pennant races…races in which they are as yet not involved.