June 10, 2007

AN ANALYTICAL LOOK AT THE JAYS AND THEIR HITTING WOES

      While the severity, and the number, of injuries that have plagued the Toronto Blue Jays this season have put a serious crimp in their playoff aspirations, it is the slow realization that the supposed strength of the team may actually be its greatest weakness.  And going forward the biggest question is whether the club can revitalize what has been nothing more than a popgun attack and make a serious run at a playoff spot. 

       With the major league baseball season approaching the mid-way point teams, and players--like water--are beginning to find their own level.  The Jays’ supposedly brawny line-up, built to succeed in the powerful A.L. East Division, has performed with all the strength of a 98-pound weakling.  It may be time to stop wishing and hoping that certain individuals will come around, and ascertain whether this line-up is not as strong as expected.  Fortunately, some of the team’s young pitchers have stepped up and look like they will be contributors for years to come, but unless the club can find some consistency on offense it will continue to muddle around the .500 mark.  And mediocrity is a level far, far below that of the post-season. 

       So, what has been the problem?  There are many.  This club, that was supposed to be among the league leaders, actually finds itself down towards the bottom of most hitting categories.  To uncover the reasons for this season’s failures I decided to look at each hitter and analyze their strengths and weaknesses.

       Alex Rios.  While not particularly suited for the leadoff spot he is, unfortunately, the club’s best option until Reed Johnson returns from injury sometime in early July.  Rios is developing at a respectable rate, and has shown the power that will be more prevalent as he becomes more comfortable.  He still has a tendency to pass on hittable pitches and swing at breaking pitches off the plate, but that will improve once he learns the intangibles of being a major league hitter.  He, like most of his teammates, has faltered in critical situations with a tendency to expand his strike zone.  Looks like he still has some maturing to do before he can become a major run producer.

       Matt Stairs.  It took a while for manager Gibbons to put him in the line-up on a regular basis, but once it happened Stairs has proven to be a solid professional hitter.  He has been more than expected as a hitter and has shown some surprising ability to field his position—whether in the outfield or first base.   His patience and his knowledge of the strike zone have enabled him to produce, and when placed at the top of the order, with the big hitters behind him, Stairs has been getting a ton of fastballs—and missing very few.  He just hasn’t been to the plate very often with runners on base.

       Lyle Overbay.  At the time of his injury Overbay looked to be coming around.  Perhaps the new long-term contract he signed in the off-season that, for the first time in his career, gave him some security, pushed him into believing that he needed to be more of a power hitter.  Home runs are not his game.  He is a line drive hitter who can occasionally carry the ball out, but during the early part of the season he consistently swung at anything he believed could be driven out of the ballpark.  This produced far too many pitcher counts, resulting in too many strikeouts and too many weak ground balls.  Finally, as the weather warmed he began to settle down and his patience rewarded him with better pitches to hit.  Hopefully, that will continue once he returns to the active roster.

       Vernon Wells.  There are all kinds of things wrong this year with the team’s offensive cornerstone.  There is little doubt that the huge contract he signed in the off-season is weighing him down, and the more he struggles the more he tries to do to stop the struggling.  He has two major issues.  First, Wells has increased his strike zone to the point where it is now the size of a small Buick.  His batting eye could never be confused with Ted Williams, but Wells is going outside the strike zone often and swinging at far too many bad pitches.  He is also jumping at the ball.  Instead of waiting for the pitch to enter the strike zone he excitedly leaps forward causing his body to race ahead of his hands, and leaving him with too many arm swings.  This results in weak pop-ups and ground balls.  Vernon has to slow down his approach, wait a little longer and start looking to take the ball up the middle and to right field.  When Vernon starts hitting line drives the opposite way then pitchers will be forced to come back inside and that is when his power will return.  Unless Vernon starts hitting this club has zero chance to put any kind of winning streak together. 

      Troy Glaus.  Injuries have taken much of the power out of Glaus’ swing.  A nagging heel injury in his left foot has kept Troy from planting his front leg firmly and lessened his ability to shift his weight forward.  This has caused Glaus to be more of an arm swinger this year and reduced the power that generated 75 home runs the past two years.  Glaus would have been better served to be the primary DH this year enabling him to keep his injury prone body off the field. 

      Frank Thomas.  Instead of making Glaus the DH and bringing in a third baseman the Jays chose to sign Thomas with the hope that he could bring the same powerful bat he exhibited last season with Oakland.  Unfortunately, big Frank seems to have left that big bat on the West Coast.  While everyone surrounding the team expects Frank to start hitting his stroke looks as if age may be starting to catch up to him.  The comparison to last season’s number are valid—it took him a couple of months to get going with Oakland—however last year he was coming off an injury that sidelined him for most of the previous year.  He cannot make that same proclamation this year.  Average pitchers are using average fastballs to pound big Frank inside—his swing is slow through the strike zone—and forcing him to reach for two-strike breaking balls off the outside corner.  If he moved any further away from the pate he would be swinging an oar from the dugout.  He still has the strength to drive mistakes out of any park, but it is looking more and more like Frank is near the end of his illustrious career.

      Aaron Hill.  He has been perhaps the most consistent Jay hitter this year.  Pitchers have learned that they cannot take his small stature for granted—Hill has hit good fastballs and decent breaking balls for home runs.  His failing, as it is with Rios, is that he has a tendency to rush his swing in critical situations.  But for a player in only his second full season as a regular Hill has made the jump into the upper echelon of second basemen in the league.  His outstanding defense puts him in a position to win a gold glove. The mistake the Jays could make long-term is to turn this soon to be all-star into a shortstop.  Second base is where he should stay.

       Adam Lind.  So, who told Adam Lind that he was a power hitter?  That sweet line drive stroke that we witnessed last year has degenerated into this long power hungry lift with more holes in it than the U.S. constitution.  Lind has become a one-dimensional hitter—he can handle pitches down and in, but anything else is problematic.  Pitchers are consistently beating him with pitches out over the plate and fastballs above the strike zone.  And he isn’t making any adjustments.  When Johnson comes back Lind may find himself back in the minors. 

       It is a sign of their mediocrity that ESPN has ranked the top 100 players in the game this year and only Rios at 42 makes the list for the Jays.

       The Jays certainly have a multitude of reasons, and excuses, for their struggles this season.  They have suffered an unconscionably high number of injuries—and to key players.   BJ Ryan is irreplaceable—and it took the club more than a month to come up with a semi-reliable substitute.  But the pitching staff has recovered nicely—Dustin McGowan has finally come to the realization that his stuff is good enough to get major league hitters out so he doesn’t have to be perfect, and Shaun Marcum has proven that his command of the strike zone with four quality pitches is much better suited to being a starter than it ever was as a reliever.   AJ Burnett has discovered a change-up to go with his overpowering fastball and deadly curve, and his newfound ability to control his emotions on the mound has translated into a consistent approach and more successful results.  The bullpen has also settled down now that roles have been defined.  But unless the club’s offense can begin to reach the level expected of it coming out of spring training the Jays will not string enough wins together to climb into the wild card race, and they   will be doomed to finish out the year in the middle of the pack. 

       That would be disappointing to everyone associated with this year’s club—including the fans who have not seen a playoff game since Joe Carter won the 1993 World Series with his walk-off home run.  That moment seems like such a ling time ago—and it is.

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