June 16, 2005

YOUNG AND IMPROVED JAYS ARE NOT YET READY FOR PRIME TIME

      They’re a lot better than last year.  Of course, they couldn’t get much worse.  This year they are very competitive, very determined, and rarely get blown out of games, but the Toronto Blue Jays are not strong enough to consider themselves contenders.  Not yet.  With the influx of good young talent this year the Jays are setting up to be a solid contender for years to come, and realistically their status as contenders should begin in 2006.  This is strictly a building year; getting those young players ready for contention and discovering which holes need to be filled either by trade or by free agency.

       The strength of this team might actually still be in the minor leagues.  There are a number of quality starting pitchers working their way up the system, though most of them are a couple of years removed from being in the big leagues.  This leaves the major league club looking to fill holes in the rotation with veterans until the bountiful supply is tapped.  At this point it looks as if the Jays have two quality starters on the big club in perennial Cy Young candidate Roy Halladay and quirky lefthander Gustavo Chacin.  The club keeps hoping that young right-hander David Bush can develop into a consistent pitcher and, if he does, that would leave the rotation only two short of the full complement.   Young veterans Ted Lilly and Josh Towers, neither of whom look to have a long life in the Jays system, fill those spots right now.  If the Jays hope to contend they need more consistency from their starting staff.

       The pitchers, however, would feel a little more at ease if the offense could supply a decent amount of support.  The line-up looks like a long stretch of flatland—no valleys and certainly no peaks.  Losing Carlos Delgado may have straightened out the club’s economic picture, and the infield defense is much improved, but the attack has taken a serious nosedive.  There isn’t that one solid run producer in the middle of the line-up that balances out the offense.  There isn’t anybody capable of taking the pressure off the others and there isn’t anybody able to carry the team when several players are slumping.   If this team wants to contend they will need to add a big piece of lumber to the middle of the order, and since there isn’t anybody of that caliber progressing through the minor leagues the Jays are going to have to acquire him—either though trade or an off-season free agent signing.

       The club has an impressive number of young position players to build around.  Outfielders Vernon Wells and Alexis Rios look to be regulars for many years to come, and infielder Aaron Hill has certainly captivated the attention of the all the team’s followers, and all the other major league teams, with his solid offensive punch.  It is unfortunate that the team lost Corey Koskie to a hand injury—his powerful left-handed bat would have helped the team through many of these low scoring contests.  But without that injury Hill doesn’t get promoted and the team isn’t quite so confident that the young man is ready to contribute on the major league level.     

       There is, however, much too much dead wood on this club.  While adapting nicely to first base Eric Hinske is proving that his first season’s power numbers were an anomaly.  Hinske is a powerful man who doesn’t use his body to hit, he only uses his hands and arms--and this limits his power output.  His inability to hit lefthanders is less of a problem, but at this point the club needs far more offense from a middle of the line-up hitter who mans a hitter’s position in first base.

       Another player seemingly on the verge of being trade bait is outfielder Frank Catalanotto.  The Cat is a solid contact hitter, and could be useful as a bit player off the bench, but it would seem his talents would be better served on another club—one that doesn’t have a younger, and cheaper, outfielder (Gabe Gross) waiting for an opportunity.  Perhaps the Jays could package off Hinske, Catalanotto and a pitcher to acquire one consistent veteran—either a pitcher or a hitter.  If the Jays hope to improve as the season progresses, and thereby create some good feelings going into next season then they are going to need to add some offense.

       The relief corps looks to be in solid hands for some time.  Youngsters Vinnie Chulk and Jason Fraser have developed into quality set-up men and veteran Miguel Batista has proven to be a better than expected closer.  The club still needs a quality lefthander to get out left-handed hitters (but then what team doesn’t need one of those?) 

       There isn’t any depth on the big-league club, and that hurts them when the regulars hit a slump.  When Koskie comes back the team will have a decision to make as to which hitter will lose playing time.  Koskie is a valuable fielder at third, but will likely take up most of the reminder of this season at DH.  Hill has to keep playing, and Shea Hillenbrand is too good of a hitter to sit, so that leaves Hinske.  Manager John Gibbons has been quite adept at getting all of his position players enough at-bats, but after sitting out a couple of games against lefthanders Hinske complained—not a smart thing to considering his lack of success against lefthanders.  

       The club is progressing nicely, however, and looks good for the coming years.  This year, however, they are no better than the fourth place team in the division.  Boston and New York have far too much talent, and neither team has really hit its stride yet, and Baltimore has a bevy of experienced hitters and enough pitching to keep them in the hunt for most of the year.  If the Jays can stay at or above .500 it can be considered a successful campaign if they can do a number of things.  If they can acquire more offense.  If they can solidify their starting rotation.  If they can fill out their bench.  If they can do these things before the end of the year they will look and feel good heading into 2006.  And that’s when it should start coming together for this team.