July 6, 2006

JAYS WILL NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS WITH THEIR PRESENT ROSTER

      This has easily been the most interesting half season of baseball seen around these parts in many years.  This year’s version of the Toronto Blue Jays have proven to have enough offensive depth to create the illusion that any deficit can be overcome.  This team has shown grit and determination; they have shown a dramatic sense of team unity and have illustrated a serious intention on competing for a playoff spot.  But this team has also proven that unless some assistance arrives to bail out a broken down pitching staff the Jays will once again be on the outside looking in come October.

       With all of their expensive off-season additions little brother Toronto appeared ready to challenge the decade long hold on the East Division by their big brothers from New York and Boston.  But injuries to A.J. Burnett and Gustavo Chacin and the complete dissolution of Josh Towers have created more holes in the starting rotation than the Jays are able to cover.  Without any experienced arms to fill in, and without any young top-line pitchers major league ready, the Jays had to turn to rookies Casey Jansson and Ty Taubenheim.   After some early season success Jansson has been more Towers-like in the past month and certainly looks to have reached the end of his magical mystery tour.  The league has seen enough of his average stuff and has learned to wait for the rookie to make a mistake—and Jansson has obliged.  Taubenheim is in the same boat, with similarly mediocre stuff—though his slider definitely looks good enough to be effective in middle relief.  As starters both rookies have had, and will continue to have, their hats handed to them.  If the Jays look to stay with the big spenders of the east they cannot come back from the all-star break with these two rookies in their rotation.

       What are the alternatives?  The first choice of the club will be to bring back Dustin McGowan.  In two previous stints in the majors McGowan has alternately looked solid and horrendous, but he does possess major league stuff.  If he is able to harness his fastball and locate his breaking pitches he could provide a boost for the club, at least until Chacin returns in early August.  The second choice is to look outside the organization for some pitching help.  The problem is that all other contenders, outside of Detroit and Chicago, are also looking for pitching help.  The advantage the Jays have over most of the other contenders is that they are looking for a back of the rotation starter, and they have some minor league talent with which to entice non-contenders.  The Jays would be looking for a similar-type talent that the Yankees acquired last season when they picked up Shawn Chacon (experienced and inexpensive). 

       As strong as their offense is the Jays cannot continue to look up at the scoreboard (or Jumbotron) and see themselves down by four runs before they even get through their line-up once.  Their taste for contention and their desire to compete will slowly wane and their confidence will dissipate.  Soon they won’t score any runs for their top three starters as well and then suddenly they’ll find themselves ten games behind the leader and out of the race.  The organization, and specifically GM J.P. Ricciardi are going to need to show confidence in the club they constructed and fill in the hole, and fill it soon.  The trade deadline of July 31 may actually be too late—the club could be out of the race by then.