July 28, 2005

TOO MANY BUYERS, NOT ENOUGH SELLERS LESSEN TRADE POSSIBILITIES

       With the drastic fall from grace of the two perennial A.L. powerhouses, the Yankees and the Red Sox, making the playoffs is suddenly a possibility for a number of clubs.  The same number of potential playoff participants exists in the N.L. thus limiting the number of teams that would be willing to make the annual deadline deals—veterans for youngsters.  The parity in both leagues means this trade deadline will likely be the quietest in recent memory.

       There are only three A.L. clubs this year that can be positively identified as sellers—the last place teams in each division, Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Seattle.  Of those clubs the Mariners have made the most talent available.  There are the obvious choices—veterans with hefty contracts—like closer Eddie Guardado and starter Jamie Moyer—but the most prized possession Seattle has made available is starting pitcher Gil Meche.  Just approaching the prime of his career it is a little confusing why a rebuilding club like the Mariners would make Meche available, but it seems as if the organization believes that Meche will never reach his potential.   He is arbitration eligible this off-season and they obviously believe that his stock value may never be any higher.  If they do move Meche the Mariners would likely receive another young pitcher in return  (they don’t want to just give him away) and perhaps a young position player (Seattle, like so many other clubs, does not have a quality catcher in their system). 

       The rosters for both the Royals and the D’Rays are already littered with young, inexpensive players.  Neither club has an abundance of desirable talent.  The only major player on either club that could be acquired is the Royals Mike Sweeney, but his contract may be too obtrusive for many clubs.  Also, the Royals keep talking like they want to build the club around Sweeney—a plan that does not seem plausible—and would likely be asking for the moon in return.  The Angels, desperate for some additional hitting, could be a contender to acquire Sweeney.  The Angels have the farm system that could tempt the Royals, and they also have the budget to be able to add Sweeney’s contract.  It is likely that the Angels will acquire a hitter before the deadline—their goal would be a solid hitting third baseman (like Phil Nevin) or a designated hitter (like Sweeney).

      The Yankees are the club with the most holes that need to be filled.  They need a number of pitchers—their recent signings of scrap heap veterans like Al Leiter and Hideo Nomo prove how desperate they are.  The club also has career minor leaguer Aaron Small in the rotation, and he is suddenly number three on their depth chart, and that shows the depths the club has plunged in their search for pitching.  The trade for Colorado’s Shawn Chacon illustrates their desperation.  The bullpen, before Tom Gordon and Mariano Rivera, is bare and if the team isn’t hitting they likely isn’t winning.  The Red Sox are in a similar position in that they have a deadly everyday line-up that needs to produce each day for the club to have a chance to win.  Their expected rotation, headed by Curt Schilling, has been ineffective—Schilling is likely done as a dominant starter—and their bullpen has been abominable.  These high spending clubs need to address their pitching concerns at the deadline or they may both be on the sidelines when the playoffs begin.     

       It’s the same situation in the N.L.  Last place clubs like the Pirates and the Rockies are the major sellers—the stumbling Reds could sell but they have only one chip, Adam Dunn, with which to use.  The Pirates are looking to move several of their veteran pitchers-something they do every year at this time, and the Rockies are looking at moving out some contracts.  Neither club owns anyone that could be classified as valuable, but each club possesses back of the rotation starters or decent relievers that could be had for a cheap price.  It is likely that these two teams could be the most active players on the market place before Sunday’s deadline.  

       There aren’t as many teams in the N.L. looking to add pieces as there are in the A.L. (thanks to those many needs of the Yanks and Sox).  The biggest name on the block is Florida’s hard throwing youngster A.J. Burnett, but since the Marlins want to attach the dead weight that is Mike Lowell’s contract to any deal it likely means that a deal will not take place.  As soon as Florida realizes that they will not be able to move Lowell they will then have a much better chance of moving Burnett.  There are a bunch of teams that have expressed interest in Burnett, but there may only be a few teams that will be able of meet Florida’s asking price of two or three young players.  The Orioles, a team that is rapidly falling out of the race, as their veterans grow weary in the summer heat, have expressed the most interest in Burnett, and may be willing to part with the desired players.  The Yankees don’t have the young players that would interest Florida and Boston, a team that does possess some youngsters, is unlikely to part with their prospects for a two-month pitcher.

       Little has been written about the St. Louis Cardinals, easily the best team in the league.  The Cards have a solid rotation, a deep bullpen, and a heavy-hitting line-up, but they may be looking to add some outfield help.  Injuries have weakened their depth in the outfield and they would like to add a solid hitting corner outfielder like Colorado’s Eric Byrnes of Seattle’s Raul Ibanez.  Both players, while available, may be too pricey for the Cards since they are really looking for someone to be a fourth outfielder on their roster.  And how hard must it be for Byrnes, traded just a couple of weeks ago by Oakland, to know that he will likely be on the move again.

       The chances are that a race-changing trade will not happen at this deadline—unless Burnett is somehow moved to the Yanks or the Red Sox.  What is more likely to happen is that all the contenders that have aging rosters and know that their time is running short will make the additions they feel are necessary for them to stay in the race.  Desperate teams will make desperate moves while younger clubs, like the Jays and the A’s, will likely sit this one out.