August 23, 2007

KEEPING POP-GUN ATTACK SHOULD COST JAYS RICCIARDI HIS JOB 

      Even the most common baseball fan watching the Toronto Blue Jays this season on even an intermittent basis knows one simple fact—this offense sucks.   So it is a little perturbing that the man who created this monstrosity continues to defend it and insists that the year-long struggle to score runs is just a blip on the radar and will be back, intact, next year.  I believe that when Jays GM JP Ricciardi spews such nonsensical support for this pop-gun attack he is either being political, or he’s being absurdly naïve.  I am hoping that his positive opinions are merely a ploy to enhance the value of the team’s dead wood, because if the Jays come back next season with the same line-up, and again struggles to score runs, then JP should be moved into a more limited role…with another organization. 

      I had concerns about this offense coming right out of spring training.  At the onset of the season the Jays had been promoted, by anyone associated with baseball-- including the Jays themselves, as an offensively potent but pitching challenged club.  The Jays, however, pitched fairly well during spring training but were horrifically inept at the plate.  The club hit .235 in the spring (only Florida was worse) and this set off some concerns I expressed at the time that the offense was too one-dimensional.  There were too many right-handed hitting power guys that when they are not hitting home runs are essentially ineffective. As long as the club hit home runs they would score, but if the power suddenly went dry then the club would be unable to scratch out any runs.  The line-up had very little speed, and very few contact hitters.  From one through nine the opening day roster was a strikeout waiting to happen…and in the end strikeouts have become the bane of the 2007 Blue Jay existence.

       Here is a scenario that occurred far too often this season.  The Jays begin an inning going single-double and suddenly with nobody out and runners on second and third the club, with the meat of the order coming up, looks like it has a solid rally in progress.  Vernon Wells has the first shot of driving in the runners but he chases a fastball up and out of the strike zone and pops out.  Frank Thomas comes up and looks at a breaking ball on the outside corner for a strike and then is way behind an inside fastball and barely fouls it off.  The Big Hurt then works the count to 2-2 before swinging through another inside fastball.  Troy Glaus is the final hope to extend what once looked like a promising inning.  Glaus swings and misses a first pitch fastball and then fouls off a breaking pitch.  He works the count full before grounding weekly to second on an outside fastball.  The stats will show an 0-3 hitting with runners in scoring position—a season-long problem—and another 0-fer hitting with runners in scoring position and two out.  The club hovers around the bottom of the list in all of baseball in this category.  It is the main reason why this mediocre club can never, and will never, go on an extended victory run. 

       The questions are simple--why is this club so terrible at driving in runners?  Is there one main reason for their continued failure at scoring runs?   Is there anything that can be done to correct this major flaw?  The answers are not so simple--but it certainly begins with a restructuring of this line-up.  Thinking that this group will one day just start hitting is ludicrous.  It should have been apparent in June to those in the know (after all I knew, and if I knew they certainly should have known) that this club was ill-equipped offensively to compete. 

       The Jays have had great fortune this year.  You could look at the negative side of the ledger and harp on all the injuries they suffered, and yes there have been plenty, but this season the Jays actually discovered that they have incredible pitching depth.   The loss of BJ Ryan opened up spots for Casey Janssen and Jeremy Accardo to shine.  The off-season loss of Ted Lilly and the in-season loss of Gustavo Chacin opened up spots for Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan to shine.  Suddenly the Jays have an excess of pitching—a situation that each and every franchise in baseball would love to be in—and could essentially trade one or more of those assets to acquire a good hitter. 

       So now that the pitching staff has been stabilized—and will only improve once Ryan returns—the club needs to address its line-up this off-season.  Here is where the problems begin, however.  JP may have actually backed himself, and the franchise, into a corner with the heavy, long-term contracts he has handed out.  

       Thomas and Glaus are similar hitters—and have similar weaknesses.  They are strikeout prone with many holes in their swings, holes that pitchers exploit to squelch rallies, and are only productive when hitting home runs—something they do now at a much lesser rate.  The line-up cannot endure another year with these two at its heart.  But both have heavy dollar contracts and with their obviously lessening skills makes them almost unmoveable.  The only chance the Jays have is finding an AL club looking for an aging right-handed power hitting designated hitter that can’t run and can be overmatched by decent fastballs.  Certainly not as much a market for Thomas this off-season as it was last when JP mistakenly thought there was some thunder left in those worn out bats.  Now JP needs to find another club willing to be paid—the Jays will have to pick up much of the contractual dollars--to take Thomas.  Then the Jays can make Glaus more of a DH since playing defense simply wears him down. 

      Two cornerstone players are most responsible for this season’s pathetic offensive show, Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay.  Both will likely rebound next year however.  Wells seems to be on a career roller coaster—one good year then one bad year—is due for a good one, and Overbay, a hitter that relies on quick hands to be productive is slowed because his hand never completely healed from an early season break.  If Alex Rios continues his progression—once he adds some muscle he will hit forty home runs and will be the club’s clean up hitter for years to come--then the team will automatically improve.  But to contend there are three things they need to add--a sparkplug at the top of the order, a capable right-handed hitting third baseman/first baseman, and a left-handed bat to complement Overbay and balance out an imbalanced line-up.  The one thing they need to subtract—a horrifyingly unsuccessful love of the home run. 

       For some reason normally placid and productive hitters suddenly are trying to muscle up and hit the ball out of the ballpark.  Adam Lind came to the club late last year and showed a consistent line drive bat.  This year Lind developed an uppercut and turned those line drives into flyouts, and a ticket back to the minors.  Aaron Hill, who should lead the league in doubles one year, is limiting his growth by hitting flyballs and Wells needs to stop hanging around with Glaus and Thomas so he can stop thinking he’s primarily a home run hitter.  Wells is much more effective when hitting shots to the right centre gap.  And the home runs will actually follow since pitchers will be much more reluctant to throw outside if Wells is crushing those pitches for doubles, and he can turn the inside fastballs into four-baggers. 

       The one player the Jays should target this off-season is Tampa Bay’s Carl Crawford.  The Rays have been in search of quality young, and inexpensive, pitchers for years and the Jays just happen to have a plethora of that kind.  Crawford is an explosive hitter and would set an incredible tempo for a quality team, but as much as the Rays need pitching they would be hesitant to move one of their very few star players.  Tampa Bay has a number of quality young outfielders though, (BJ Upton has finally found a comfortable position in center and Delmon Young has right field locked up) and could compensate for Crawford’s loss.  They would need an experienced, and relatively cheap, outfielder in return and that is where Reed Johnson would come in.  So would the Rays be interested in a package of Johnson, Brandon League and perhaps Jesse Litsch (a hometown boy who could attract some fans to Tampa’s desolate indoor chasm)?   

      The Jays are going to have to think outside the box a little more this off-season if they hope to be a contender next year.   Think of having Crawford leading off, Hill hitting second, and then Rios, Wells, Overbay, Glaus hitting sixth, and Matt Stairs hitting seventh as the DH on those selected days that Glaus is at third.  The Jays would then be able to have their catching platoon of Zaun and somebody to hit left-handers (Thigpen?) hitting eighth and John McDonald, who has established himself as enough of an asset with his sparkling defense and his ability to bunt to compensate for a lack of offense, batting ninth.   

      The two other needs—a lefthanded bat and a righthanded hitter able to spell Glaus at third and Overbay at first—should be easy to fill.  The club already has that lefthanded bat, Matt Stairs, and merely has to scour the free agent market for the other hitter.  It is for certain that the club cannot carry useless pieces of timber, Royce Clayton and Howie Clark, on their bench next year.  They need to have production on their bench, and they need the manager to utilize those players as more than just an occasional rest stop for the regulars.

       The Jays need to stop trying to imitate the New York Yankees--the Yanks haven’t won a championship since 2000.   The Jays need to start trying to imitate teams like the Angels and the Mariners—aggressive teams that can produce runs and don’t wait for the big blast. 

      JP Ricciardi insists that this year’s line-up is good enough, and he will more than happy to bring it back next year.  If he does so, and he isn’t simply blowing smoke, then when next year ends with similarly mediocre results JP should be fired.  It will be obvious at that point that his talk--of being able to build a championship contender—will be much stronger than his walk. 

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