August 27, 2003

SOPHOMORE JINX IS MORE ABOUT ADJUSTMENTS THAN ABOUT LUCK

      Whenever a baseball player struggles in his second season, especially if he had a successful rookie campaign, the reason given is that he is suffering from the sophomore jinx.  But if you look a little deeper at this supposed jinx it becomes clear that it is less about luck, or a lack of it, and more about an inability to adapt to a new environment.

       If a player has a successful beginning to a career is it usually due to that player’s ability to ride a confident approach and a keen grasp of the game for the entire season.  The hard part is for that player to follow up that successful initial campaign.  Teams around the league recompose scouting strategies for dealing with players and if there is a weakness in a player’s game it is now exploited.  Suddenly the fastballs out over the plate that the player crushed with regularity are never seen again, and instead he sees a steady diet of inside fastballs and breaking pitches.  Young players are not usually noted for their patience so they begin swinging at pitches they never would have attempted to swing at the previous year.  Failure breeds a lack of confidence.  The player starts to shuffle in the batter’s box.  Slumps grow longer and the player grows more frustrated.  The sophomore jinx is now fully in effect.

       A perfect example of this sophomore jinx is Josh Phelps.  Here’s a young player that came to the majors at mid-season last year and looked like he would be a consistent 40 home run 120 RBI guy.  He was calm at the plate, waited patiently for his pitch and then would hit it extremely hard.  He was on fire.  If he had played the entire year, and had played at that same level, he would have been the rookie of the year and would have put up some monstrous stats.  This year, however, things are completely different.

       In the off-season scouts seemed to notice that Phelps was an aggressive swinger who couldn’t lay off fastballs.  Instead of trying to break his timing by throwing breaking pitches off the plate, pitches Phelps proved he wouldn’t swing at, pitchers started teasing him with fastballs off the plate. With the power he exhibited in his swing pitchers certainly didn’t want to him to extend his arms so they stayed away from the outer half of the plate and instead started throwing him fastballs just inside the strike zone.  Phelps could not resist these pitches and this started a streak of pop-ups, weak fly balls, and fouls.  Phelps rarely saw a fastball out over the plate, and any breaking pitch he saw broke away from him.  Phelps went away from his strength and started to become impatient, swinging at any fastball that even looked to be a strike.  He was suddenly faced with a ton of 0-2 and 1-2 counts.  The strikeouts mounted.  His regular hitting spot at number five was taken away from him.  Soon after that Phelps became a platoon player.  The sophomore jinx had claimed another victim.

      It is relatively easy, however, for Phelps to regain last season’s success.  But when failure mounts a young player’s first instinct is to try harder.  He starts taking extra batting practice.  He starts moving his feet in the batter’s box—getting closer to the plate, getting further away from the plate, opening his feet, closing his feet, bending more, straightening more…etc.  He questions his ability.  He wonders if last season’s success was a mirage.  He starts to wonder if he is the next Joe Charboneau.  But all he needs to do is calm down and think.  Understand what the pitchers are doing to get him out.  He needs to adjust. 

      Baseball is a game of constant adjustments.  Whenever a hitter finds success you can count on pitchers trying to find a way to break that success.  When they do it’s up to the hitter to re-adjust and find a way to hit again.  If a hitter can’t adjust at the plate he will soon be adjusting to life in another career.  For Phelps he simply has to realize that the inside fastballs are not hittable pitches.  Once he does that he will be hitting with 1-0 and 2-0 counts, which means that he will start seeing better pitches to hit.  His confidence will begin to rise with the success and he can start to think of himself as that 40 home run guy again.  He just needs to calm down.

       The next time you’re watching a game and there’s a hard throwing pitcher on the mound, watch what happens when he begins to lose sight of the strike zone.  If he’s a young pitcher he’ll think that he needs to throw the ball harder, after all if he is having trouble finding the strike zone the chances are that once he does a major league hitter will pound his pitch over the fence.  Then watch the catcher.  If he’s an experienced game-caller he will call for a breaking ball from that pitcher.  The reason is that the catcher wants to slow the pitcher down, get him to concentrate on his delivery again, and to get that pitcher back into a rhythm. 

       When things start going wrong the key is to slow down, realize what’s taking place and then attack it with a different game plan.  Why do players like Albert Pujols, Nomar Garciapparra, Derek Jeter avoid the sophomore jinx?  Simply because they adjust to what the pitchers are doing, don’t have one solitary approach to hitting and don’t question their ability to succeed at the first sign of failure. 

      The sophomore jinx can be beaten.  Understand the situation, adjust to what the pitchers are doing, and don’t lose confidence.  Follow these principles and the second season can be just as good as the first…if not better.