August 31, 2004

HOW TO FIX THE JAYS—LET ME COUNT THE WAYS

      The job facing Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi this off-season is monstrous in scope and absolute in importance.  The organization, at least publicly, is completely behind their Moneyball-esque GM saying that this is merely year three in the five year Ricciardi plan.   But if next season goes the way this season is going there may not be a year five to be seen.  All the talk about building through the farm system has yet to pay off, as the young stars that are playing for the Jays right now were products of the Gord Ash regime.  Only Eric Hinske can be counted as a cornerstone of the roster built by the current GM, and that doesn’t say much at all.

       So if J.P. is going to save himself, and by relation save the franchise, there are a myriad of moves he’s going to have to make.  First and foremost this is the year that the gargantuan Delgado contract comes off the books.  It’s hard to fathom one player making 40% of the team’s entire payroll and the only way Delgado could have earned it would be if he hit 50 home runs and drove in 160.  Unless the hard-hitting first baseman agrees to play for less than half what he earned this season—say four years and $36 million—then the team will have a boatload of money to spend to fill those many holes.

       Let’s say that Delgado signs elsewhere (likely) leaving his $20 million behind to spend on roster upgrades.  The first hole the GM needs to fill is replacing Delgado’s bat in the middle of the line-up.  There won’t be, however, one man capable of filling thos big shoes—based on how much the Jays would be willing to spend—so the spot can be filled with a number of players playing a number of positions.  Let’s say that player increases—those already on the roster—take up $3 million (if it takes much more to compensate the players on this sorry ass team then J.P. isn’t doing his job).  That leaves $17 million.  Here’s how we spend it.

       First—sign Canadian born free agent Corie Koskie to play third base.  Koskie is a solid 25 homer 85 RBI guy who plays a gold glove third base.  He could help replace some of Delgado’s thunder and he won’t cost much more than $6 million per year for four years.  That would enable the team to move Hinske to first base where his good glove and no arm can solidify the corner position.  Since Hinske, and to a lesser extent Koskie, aren’t great hitters against left-handed pitching you need to find some right-handed power—one to play first base and/or third base and the other who can DH.  Those two players might cost, together, as much as $5 million.  

       While it would be nice to be able to rely on the youngsters—Gabe Gross, Alexis Rios—to produce on a regular basis you can’t count on it.  Give them their at-bats—Rios should be the regular right-fielder who gets his days off when the team faces some tough right-handed pitching.  Gross can be the left-handed DH who can alternate in left-field with Frank Catalanotto.  The only other youngster who might get playing time is shortstop Russ Adams.  Adams seems on the cusp of being ready to be a decent major league shortstop, and with the Chris Woodward era coming to an ignominious conclusion it’s time to find somebody who can play the position.  The team can bring back Chris Gomez and Frank Menechino to back-up at short and second and take some of the pressure off the rookie.

      Vernon Wells and Orlando Hudson are the only two players that should be classified as everyday players.  Both, if the stay healthy, should play 150 games and if Wells can return to his 2003 form when he wasn’t swinging at everything close then he can solidify the middle of the line-up.  Reed Johnson is s very good fourth man who can play all the outfield positions and provides the club with some much-needed depth.

       The lineup and bench are complete—13 players—and leaves 12 more spots, and about $5-$6 million, for the pitching staff. 

       The staff is, of course, headed up by former Cy Young winner Roy Halladay.  Behind him are a couple of good rotation men in Ted Lilly—a solid number three—and Miguel Batista—a decent number four.  The rotation has its depth with John Towers and David Bush, and perhaps another youngster like Jason Arnold, but needs a quality pitcher to back-up Halladay.  Ricciardi made a good deal to get Lilly last season, and if he can pull off another swap to get another starter the rotation could be solid for the next couple of years—or at least until those strong arms down in the minors are ready for prime time.

       Now the biggest weakness on the team—the bullpen.  The team requires at least one left-hander, and not a garbage one like the one they signed this season.  Justin Speier and Kerry Ligtenberg, along with whomever loses out for the number five starter spot, can fill the long relief roles. Jason Fraser and Vinnie Chulk have proved that they are major league pitchers, but they shouldn’t be at the back end of the bullpen, they should be the ones leading up to an established closer.  Ricciardi tried last season to sign Tim Worrell to close, and when he couldn’t he went out and bought a closer by committee.  That was a major league disaster.  This off-season Ricciardi needs to find that closer—to give the pitching staff, and the entire team, the confidence that a lead will be safe as they approach the late innings.  There is nothing more debilitating to a team than watching early leads dissipate late in games.  With about $4 million left—depending on how much that number two starter costs and how much is traded away—the Jays should be able to acquire a pitcher to close out games.  For a man who built his reputation as a scout Ricciardi should be able to make a deal like the one Minnesota made last season in acquiring Joe Nathan.  The Twins believed that Nathan could close for them, even though he did not have any experience in the role, because he had the stuff to do the job.

       This off-season we will see if Ricciardi has the stuff to do his job—and whether he can find the players to fill out the roster, and a manager that can motivate the club and give it the confidence it needs to be competitive.  The organization cannot afford another lost season like this one.