September 12, 2006

JAYS COULD IMPROVE THEIR CLUB BY DEALING VERNON WELLS

      That’s right.  I wrote it.  The Jays could be a better ball club without Vernon Wells.  Now before you start, or should I say re-start, sending me those “Hobson, you’re an idiot” comments that came so regularly during the World Cup (I still think soccer is like watching the rain fall) let me expand on my thought process.  The Jays, as they are presently constituted, are a decent to good club—depending on the health of their pitchers—but they are not championship worthy.  Not yet.  They are still missing a few pieces—and by dealing Wells Toronto could acquire those pieces.

       Now, it is obvious to all that regularly watch the Jays that Wells is the team’s best player and is, according to those that know, the acknowledged team leader.  But his contract is coming to an end.  There have been all kinds of reports that Wells has turned down the possibility of re-signing with the club, and that he has insisted next year will be his final season in a Jays uniform.  All the particulars involved in this issue from Wells to GM JP Ricciardi have refuted all notions that any statement in kind was professed.  Of course, any response other than firm denials from the two parties would be unusual considering Wells would be severely limiting his options on the open market if he cut the Jays completely out of the negotiations.  Nonetheless, to protect themselves the Jays must consider the possibility that they will lose Wells following the 2007 season.  For the betterment of this club as it looks to compete and contend they must look at all possible scenarios including trading Wells.

       I will state, emphatically, that if the right moves are made, and the right deal is consummated (there is no reason to make a trade unless it is the right one) that the Jays will be a much better club in 2007 without Wells.  Here’s how. 

       The Jays made some major upgrades in personnel last off-season.  The additions of Troy Glaus, Lyle Overbay, AJ Burnett and BJ Ryan have proven to be wise moves.  Only Burnett has under performed this year and that was because of injury.  He has shown in his past few starts that he has the capability of being the number two starter he was initially brought here to be.  This season the Jays have discovered that Russ Adams is not a major league starting infielder (not yet anyway), and that the organization suffers from a serious lack of pitching depth.  Youngsters like Francisco Rosario and Dustin McGowan were counted on to develop into major league pitchers, but have not, and this has cast serious doubt upon the organization’s ability to develop its talented youngsters.  Only Brandon League has asserted himself to the point where he has earned a roster spot on next year’s club.  For the Jays to contend in 2007 JP is going to have to acquire the missing ingredients, and this is where Wells comes in.

       There isn’t a player available on the open market this off-season with the many talents of a Vernon Wells. Therefore, if a team is looking for that kind of offensive upgrade they won’t be able to find it through free agency.  Such a limited market makes a player like Wells even more attractive, and that just drives the price higher.  The Jays could extract a princely sum from a desperate team—a team like the Los Angeles Angels.  Now, I am going to use the Angels as an example of a deal that could benefit two teams that are on the outside of the playoffs this season but want to contend next season.  The Angels need offense and have an abundance of young pitching to use as bait.  The Jays have sufficient offense but are lacking in the pitching department.  Sounds like a match made in heaven, doesn’t it?  It very well(s) could be. 

       So here’s the proposal.  The Angels have three players they could part with that the Jays would dearly love to acquire.  An Angels’ offer of infielder Howie Kendrick and starter Earven Santana would be sufficient to acquire Wells.  The Jays could use Santana as their third starter and plug Kendrick into that glaring hole at second base (Aaron Hill would then become the regular shortstop).  However, the Jays have another position that they need to fill—catcher, and the Angels have a couple of youngsters, Jeff Mathis and Mike Napoli, that the Jays like.  However, if the Angels add a catcher to the deal they would want some assets in return.  The Jays could sweeten the pot by moving Adams—the Angels would then be the team waiting to receive a return on his potential and could re-sign Adam Kennedy to give them the time to wait—and a left-handed reliever, something the Angels desperately need.  The Jays have three Major League experienced or Major League ready lefthanders in Scott Downs, Brian Tallet and Davis Romero. 

       For the Jays they would fill three holes, but they would obviously create a huge void in center field and in the third spot in their line-up.  The third spot could be filled internally—Lyle Overbay could be plugged in against right-handers and Alex Rios against lefthanders.  Signing free agent outfielder Gary Matthews Jr, someone who would provide solid if not spectacular defense and a consistent bat at the top of the line-up, would sufficiently fill the center field position. 

       Ask yourself, if these moves were made, and if the Jays were able to acquire another starter for their rotation through free agency, would the team not good enough to contend?  Sure, you would lose Wells’ gold glove defense and 30 home run bat, but the Seattle Mariners lost Alex Rodriguez (and received nothing in return) and went on to set a record for the most wins in a season.  Sometimes it’s not what you lose, but how you compensate for the loss that makes the difference.