October 7, 2004

STREAKING ASTROS, FALLING CUBS SET UP PLAYOFF MATCH-UPS

      If it can be done could someone please take that goat, or is it a cow, out of Chicago and send it as far away as possible.  Those poor, loveable losers, the Cubs if you hadn’t guessed by now, found another way to choke.  With a favourable schedule, and a lead, among all wild card contenders, the Cubs managed to toss away five out of six games during the final week, all at home, to a bad Cincinnati team and a resting Atlanta team.  Meanwhile the Houston Astros left nothing to chance winning all of their games during that final week, including an impressive three game sweep of the league’s standard-bearers the St. Louis Cardinals.  The best team did indeed win.

       So while the Cubs take their usual position during the post-season, on their respective couches, the playoffs begin with a few outstanding match-ups, and based on the early results, outstanding games.  The Twins had the Yankees by the collar and let them up.  With a gassed Joe Nathan trying to simply throw a strike the Yankees patiently waited until one of his fumes crossed the plate—at which time A-Rod crushed it for the winning blow.  Manager Ron Gardenhire must have thought he was in Vegas watching his shooter throw nothing but sevens as he gambled, and lost, with his best closer when it was apparent to the popcorn vendors and even the tiring toddlers in attendance that Nathan was done.  It is now likely that the Yankees will come back and win the series, probably taking both games in Minny to avoid another showdown with Cy Young winner Johan Santana.  Then Gardenhire can spend the entire winter wondering—what if?

       The Red Sox looked like the best team coming into the playoffs, and haven’t done anything to change that perspective.  Their expected one-two punch of Schilling and Pedro are expected to get the Sox off to good starts in each series, and that’s what they’ve down against the Angels.  Now Anaheim is faced with having to win both games in Boston just to set up another battle with Schilling in game five.  The Angels don’t look like the team that swept to the West Division crown.  They look tentative and their solid defense has crumbled in both games.  Unless the Sox pull off an el-foldo—and nothing is impossible with the Sox—then Boston should be able to end Anaheim’s season relatively quick and set up that expected showdown with the Yanks. 

      In the National League the Cardinals rolled out their artillery in game one and clubbed the Dodgers.  If LA wins one game in this series they should consider it a success.  LA does not have the starting pitching capable of keeping those heavy St. Louis bats in check.  This could be a sweep.  If St. Louis gets solid efforts from their starters then they have to be classified as the favourites to win it all.  Their defense is incomparable and they have arguably the best line-up in baseball.  The Dodgers have to look at the season as a success in spite of their likely playoff failure.  For the first time in years they made the playoffs, they divested themselves of some unwanted payroll and have set their team up as a contender for years to come—if they can sign Adrian Beltre.

       The final series sees the Astros against their playoff nemesis—the Braves.  The Astros had great teams in the late nineties, but each time they made the playoffs they ran into the Braves and were quickly knocked out.  The difference this time is that the Astros come in on a roll and the Braves no longer have that dominant pitching staff.  The previous failures of the Astro hitters, well documented certainly in Houston, against Atlanta will not have any bearing on this series.  I like to compare this series to the Yankees and the Royals who met several times in the seventies—with the Yankees winning each time, until the 1980 series when the Royals, after a big three run monster home run by George Brett off Goose Gossage, ended that plague.

       With Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt the Astros have two pitchers at the front of the rotation that can compare to the Red Sox, and enables the team to get off to good starts in series.  In game one it took the Astros a few innings to get their feet wet and to realize that the same nervousness that befell them in previous playoff incarnations wasn’t present, and they weren’t facing Maddux or Glavine either.  By the sixth inning this game was over.  The Astros should have enough to get past the Braves and set up an inter-divisional battle with the Cardinals for the right to represent the NL in the World Series.

      Predictions—Cardinals over Astros in the NL championship and Red Sox over Yankees in the AL.  In the World Series wouldn’t it be something if the Red Sox had a lead of a couple runs in the ninth inning of game seven and instead of replacing iron glovers Kevin Millar at first—with Doug Mientkiewicz—and Mark Bellhorn at second—with Pokey Reese—manager Terry Francona leaves them in the game so they can experience the joy of being on the field when the games ends.  The only problem with the philosophy is that a couple of ground balls elude the mediocre fielders and the Cards come back to claim the title.  Would Francona be hung in effigy the way Grady Little was last season?

      Incidentally, before the season started The Fan View predicted the four playoff participants in the AL would be—you guessed it the Yanks, the Sox, the Twins and the Angels.  In the NL the Astros and the Dodgers are in—only the Cubs and the Cards and the Braves beat out the Marlins. 

      Six out of eight isn’t bad though—isn’t it?