December 1, 2005

WINTER MEETINGS COULD DECIDE THE CONTENDERS AND PRETENDERS

      The Christmas season started early for major league baseball clubs.  Toronto opened their refrigerator and told B.J. Ryan to forage through until he could eat no more.  The Mets followed that very same day by addressing their closer concerns giving Billy Wagner the keys to Manhattan.  Chicago fattened up by trading for Jim Thome and then signed Paul Konerko for dessert, while the Padres re-signed Brian Giles.  Major League teams wanted to get a jump-start on their wish lists to give them an opportunity to head to the winter meetings with a manageable agenda.  The clubs that are able to check off the most items on their lists will likely position themselves to be contenders next year.  Those who are unable to make their wishes come true could find themselves on the outside looking in during next year’s pennant pushes.

       The White Sox have already made a huge splash this off-season by acquiring Thome and re-signing Konerko.  With a quality starting staff the Sox  are primed to defend their title.  They will be tough to beat.  Their only concern could come in the bullpen, unless Bobby Jenks comes back next year and proves that his initial season the majors wasn’t a fluke.  Otherwise leads created by the offense and held by the starters could be extinguished by the bullpen.

       The Blue Jays are attempting to step into a divisional race that has been the sole domain of baseball’s biggest spenders—the Red Sox and the Yankees.  By signing Ryan the Jays have solidified their bullpen and can now concentrate on acquiring a solid starting pitcher and a run producing hitter.  If they accomplish their goals Toronto could push right past the aging rosters in New York and Boston.

       The Angels are in desperate need of some offense and have their sights set firmly on Manny Ramirez.  Obviously in order to acquire the temperamental and often flaky outfielder the Angels would have to do two things—ignore Ramirez’ flights of fancy and be willing to trade some quality young parts.  The Red Sox have little interest in picking up secondary players and if they are forced into trading their all-star slugger they will be looking to set themselves up with enough talent to survive the present and to plan for the future.  If the Angels are successful however, they would be able to field a fearsome middle of the line-up with Vladamir Guerrerro, Ramirez, and Garrett Anderson.

       Oakland continues to deny that they are shopping Barry Zito, but the signing of Esteban Loiaza pushed the number of Athletic starters to seven.  With Rich Harden establishing himself as a quality number one pitcher, and with Zito nearing free agency it would behoove the A’s to move the young lefthander before its too late.  If they can add a quality young arm and a decent bat the A’s may be able to contend again next season.

       The Minnesota Twins are in a desperate situation.  Their hold on the Central Division is gone, and with most of the best players now pricing themselves out of the small market the Twins will be hard pressed to contend.  There is talk of trading gold glove centerfielder Torii Hunter but it is unlikely that the Twins would be able to acquire full value for him.  Minnesota looks to be in a two-year rebuilding mode.

       The Cleveland Indians, however, believe that they are a possibly a couple of players away from being a championship contender.  The Indians came close last season but are looking at possibly losing a starter, Kevin Millwood, and their closer, Bob Wickman, this off-season.  If the Indians believe that they will be unable to sign the pair then they will need to fill those spots as well as add another arm to their rotation.  It may be next to impossible for Cleveland to fill all their needs without having to give up someone from their young, powerful line-up.  If that takes place the Indians could find themselves treading water next year.

      The Los Angeles Dodgers are in desperation mode.  They were willing to overpay for Brian Giles, have thrown a bucketful of cash at Rafael Furcal (despite the fact that they already have a gold glove shortstop in Cesar Izturis) and are looking at signing injury-prone Nomar Garciaparra to play third base.  The Dodgers have fallen into also-ran status in the National league and will need to swing a blockbuster trade if they hope to compete next year.

      The New York Mets are not done.  Having usurped the largest market in baseball from their crosstown rivals the Mets are still in the hunt for Manny Ramirez.  This plays precisely into the hands of the Red Sox as they can play the Mets against the Angels for the best deal.  The Mets, having signed Wagner and traded for Carlos Delgado, are still a couple of pitchers away from competing and could drop out of the Ramirez sweepstakes if they can either sign or acquire a quality starter. 

       The Phillies are now Pat Gillick’s club—and that means a premium will be placed on pitching and defense.  He has already moved the mega contract of Jim Thome and picked up a quality centerfielder in the trade.  The next moves will be for pitching help and whether he can sign or trade for those arms will determine how strong a club the Phillies will field next season.

       These look to be the most active clubs at the meetings, but there are others like the Giants and the Padres, who believe that they have enough to compete next year and might be looking for that one player to put them over the top.  It does look, however, as if this year’s meetings could produce the most intriguing trades seen in baseball circles for years.  At the very least the groundwork will be laid for deals to be made in the upcoming weeks.