January 7, 2005

SURPRISES AND DISAPPOINTMENTS AS NBA CLOSE TO HALFWAY MARK

      With the Vince Carter saga and a horrible opening schedule occupying most of the attention for Toronto Raptor fans it would be easy for the locals to ignore the happenings around the league.  Here, in a bits and bytes format, I attempt to clue in the average fan, and the above average intelligent sports reader, about the surprises and the disappointments—both team and individual--that has occurred in the NBA as the league approaches the halfway portion of the schedule.

       The biggest stories—apart from the brawl in Motown—have to be the successes of the Phoenix Suns and the Seattle Supersonics.  The Suns have a blend of speed and smarts unparalleled in the league, and have used both their assets to get the jump on their opposition.  Before their opponents realize how fast the Suns actually are—no amount of game tape can really bring it home—teams find themselves down in games and are forced to open it up.  This plays right into the Suns’ hands.  The evolution of power forward—now center—Amaure Stoudamire is the key to the Suns as he has become one of the dominant players in the game.  The Suns, however, must find a way to fill in their bench—their five starters will wear down with the number of minutes they are playing.  The organization has to be surprised at how quickly the team has turned into a championship caliber club--they did not fill in all the roster spots with the necessary role players in the off-season.  It’s doubtful that they will be able to find those players this year, thus denying the Suns at a prolonged venture through the playoffs.

       The Sonics have some depth, and they have been shooting the lights out.  With a great number of free agents this off-season Sonics management had planned to change the team around.  Their success has come as a shock to the organization which now must make a decision—keep the team as is or continue on their planned course of action and rebuild the club.  The decision will likely come much easier in the second half when their hot shooting ways will cool, and the team will slowly return to earth.

       Another surprise in the West has been the abominable performance by the New Orleans Hornets.  Their first season since moving out of the East has not been a pleasant journey for the Hornets, and their inability to make the necessary changes—dump Baron Davis and acquire Vince Carter—have led them down the prison path.  The Hornets, a playoff team in the East last season, are now well on their way to setting some dubious records for futility, and will soon likely find themselves leaving Bourbon Street as the city has not taken to the team as expected.  Too many other interests, I guess.

       Has anybody been following the Kobe Bryant situation out in Lotus land?  Well, Kobe has everything going his way—he doesn’t have to play second fiddle to anyone and he controls the game from start to finish.  He will likely lead the league in scoring—the ball never leaves his hands—and he plays on average about 44 minutes per game.  It is definitely his team.  The only problem is that the Lakers are not a contending club, and will struggle just to make the playoffs.  Is it then surprising that Shaq’s Miami Heat are the best team in the East?  The Lakers won titles because Kobe played with Shaq—not the other way around.   The days of the Lakers being of championship mettle are gone.

       It’s nice that Memphis has turned their season around.  Mike Fratello has come in and given the club the energy it had lacked as previous coach Hubie Brown burned himself out during last season’s club record 50 win season.  Brown gave the club a winning attitude, but it needed somebody younger to carry that energy into the future.  It’s also nice that Orlando’s Grant Hill is finally healthy enough to play the game.  Hill, always a class act, has been sidelined for seemingly an eternity, and it was certainly questioned whether he would ever return.  Of course, the chances are that at some point his ankle will give way, and if it does it will likely be the last we’ll see of him.  Enjoy him while you can.

       The major disappointments—how about Houston, T-Mac and Yao cannot seem to play together.  Of course it has yet to be determined whether Tracy can actually play with anyone.  Utah was expected to be better than last season, but they have taken a step backward.  Their all for one attitude has been extinguished under the big contracts handed out to Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur.  Milwaukee was a playoff club last season, but they are now fighting for a position in the lottery.  It looks as if last season’s surprise performance was just that—a surprise.  The biggest disappointment has to be the defending champs from Detroit.  It looks as if everything worked perfectly for the Pistons last year—the injection of Rasheed Wallace at the trade deadline made them a championship club.  Having ‘Sheed in the line-up from training camp this year means that the club will see all his warts as well.  Perhaps the Pistons will turn it on again in the second half and be at full speed come playoff time, but at this point it looks as if the east will have a new representative in the Finals.  And wouldn’t it be funny—see Kobe above—if it were the Heat.

       What can we expect in the second half?  The Heat will likely maintain their place as the best team in the East.  The Spurs will maintain their seeding as the best in the West.  The T-Wolves will finally get it going and be a very dangerous club come playoff time.  The Suns and the Sonics will slow down and be early round playoff losers.  The Washington Wizards will continue to improve—they have a solid line-up and a good mixture of smalls and bigs that will serve them well down the stretch.  The up and down Orlando Magic might be able to squeak into the playoffs simply because of the dearth of quality teams in the East, but the Magic have so many internal issues—led by the fact their point guard likes to shoot first and pass second.   The Pacers seem to have weathered the storm from the suspensions, and with Jermaine O’Neal back they are certainly a playoff club.  But without Ron Artest they are not as good as they were last year.  

       Out west the interest will come from the bottom seeds as six teams battle for the final two spots.  Give the Spurs, Sonics, Suns, Mavericks, Kings and Wolves a spot in the playoffs, and that leaves the Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, Blazers, Rockets and Grizzlies fighting for the final two spots.  It will be a much more exciting race than the leftovers that will be fighting for a playoff position in the East.

       As for the Raptors—they still have a shot at the playoffs.  Over the next two months they have a favourable schedule—it balances out after their horrid early season foibles—and if the club can win a majority of their games in that time they can climb back into the race.  After all, even after their bad start they are still just a few games out of first in their division.