January 27, 2003

SOLVING THE COACHING PUZZLE—EXPERIENCE OR YOUTH

       It is an understatement to say that this season has turned catastrophic for the Toronto Raptors.   Many considered the Raptors to be a playoff team and it has shocked everyone that they are hanging with the bottom feeders in the NBA food chain.  There are many reasons to explain the startling drop in the standings—from injuries to poor execution—but the coaching staff has failed to create a positive and unified atmosphere where players are confident enough to make the right plays down the stretch of games.  Losing is a disease--it spreads quickly, and the coaches weren’t able to find the antidote.  The entire team became afflicted and constantly made mistakes in the dying minutes to ensure defeat when a victory was attainable.  Changes need to be made before complacency sets in and losing becomes commonplace.  The question is –which direction does Raptor management take?

       When Lenny Wilkens was signed to coach the Raptors it was thought that the all-time winningest coach would come in and spend four years teaching an inexperienced squad how to win games.  It was hoped that when his four-year term expired the team would have grown into one of the elite teams in the league.  The first year of Lenny’s term did nothing to dissuade management that they had made the right decision.  Glen Grunwald made a series of trades that overhauled the roster that year, but Lenny’s experience kept the team in gear. The team won the first playoff series in its history and very nearly won another one.  But if the first year is considered a huge success then the second year should be considered a monstrous failure.  The team began the season as one of the favourites to win the conference but stagnant play, and a lengthy losing streak eliminated that possibility.  The team looked lost for long stretches of play during the season and it appeared as if Lenny’s calm coaching style had run its course.  The strong finish and solid playoff performance against the heavily favoured Pistons enabled the team to end the year on a positive note.  It saved the Raptors from having to make a difficult decision on Lenny, a decision that, in retrospect, should have been made.

       This year was never a positive.  After splitting their first eight games the Raptors proceeded to go on losing streaks of six, four, twelve, and five.  This season turned out to not be a continuation of the positive end to last year, but a continuation of the lethargic play that highlighted most of the previous season.  Injuries can be used as an explanation for some of the troubles, but when the Raptors look around at the company they are keeping they see only the Denver Nuggets and the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Nobody is below them and everybody else is above.  Despite the injuries this is not the kind of company the Raptors should be keeping.

       Looking at the rosters--the Nuggets rotation includes rookies, sophomores, rejects, and an upcoming salary cap opening in Juwan Howard.  They are, without a doubt, the worst outfit in the league.  The Cavs have some decent players in Ricky Davis, Dajuan Wagner, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas, but they certainly deserve their place at the bottom of the division.  The surprising part is that the Cavs, expected to be a lousy team, fired their coach because of their poor results.  What does that say about the Raptors who not only have fallen far off expectations, but have also lost twice this season to those same Cavaliers? 

       Lenny has to go—it’s just a matter of when.  The Raptor management team cannot expect fans to accept this terrible season as nothing more than a fluke.  They can’t expect their fan base to feel encouraged come training camp if the same coach is running the team.  The fans have lost confidence in the team, in the coach, and in the players—they need to have their spirit rebuilt.  And it has to start now, not next training camp.  It even looks as if the players have lost confidence in their coach, and they certainly aren’t being driven to greatness by the same coaching methods.

       So where do the Raptors go next?  If they make a change now—mid-season—they will likely turn to an assistant on the bench to finish out the year.  The likely candidate is Craig Neal, but timing may not be on his side.   The Raptors may have fallen too far for Neal to take over.  The team may need an experienced hand to come in and resurrect their ambitions to be a playoff contender next year.  As far as experienced coaches are concerned there is one name constantly being mentioned—Jeff Van Gundy.  He is the white knight who is available and seems willing.  The problem with Van Gundy is that he is under contract to the Knicks for the rest of this season and it is unlikely that he would forfeit that contract to coach the Raptors.  There are some possible solutions—the Raptors could make a financial deal with the Knicks where the teams split his contract for this year.  But a deal still would need to be worked out with Van Gundy, and he would certainly command a stipend similar to that of Lenny.  Would the Raptors then be willing to pay two coaches a total of $10 million next year?  For a franchise that is noticeably cost-conscious it is doubtful whether they would front that kind of money.  There are other experienced coaches available who wouldn’t be as expensive as Van Gundy, but then they wouldn’t arrive with the same resume.   You pay for what you get.   The other option is to hire a young coach—somebody who has been biding his time as an assistant.  If the Raptors were to let Lenny go this year they could give Neal the opportunity to show his abilities, and if he shows well then he could easily be given the reigns for next season.  If he doesn’t then the team could look elsewhere for somebody like Eddie Jordan—an assistant for Byron Scott with New Jersey who has been getting a ton of credit for the Nets resurgence.   The worst decision the Raptors could make is to not make a decision.  To let the season play out with Lenny as coach doesn’t accomplish anything and sets the franchise back a step. 

       The all-star break is two weeks and four games away.  The Fan View has stated for weeks that if the Raptors were going to make a coaching change then that is the time they will do it.  With the trading deadline another two weeks after that the Raptors could have a much different look come the end of the season.  There is one definite though, this team needs to reclaim its place as a conference contender before the end of the year and thereby start next season with a clean slate.  They do not want to have the results of the first half of this season hanging over their heads.  With a new coach and a few new players this team could regain the status, and the respect around the league, that they have tossed away this year.

       If the Raptors don’t make a change then they are taking a chance that the free fall they have experienced this year will continue.  If it does then stars like Carter and Davis will be begging to leave town the way Christie and Stoudamire and McGrady once did.  Surely nobody in Toronto wants that.