February 17, 2003

DON’T EXPECT MUCH FROM RAPTORS AT TRADE DEADLINE

      With the coaching situation seemingly resolved, at least for the remainder of this season, the Raptors and their fans can turn their attention to the upcoming trade deadline.  It is certainly no secret that this team has major holes to fill if it wants to be a consistent playoff contender, but since the roster already exceeds the accepted luxury tax figure a major addition this season is unlikely.  Instead the possibility exists that a couple of minor moves may be made to lighten the excess of backcourt players, as well as improve the depth of a very short front court rotation. 

       The core players for this team—Vince Carter, Antonio Davis, Alvin Williams and Jerome Williams occupy about sixty percent of the total payroll.  They will not be moved.   Everybody else is available for the right price, but very few of those players will draw much interest from other teams.  There are two players that are being scouted by opposition teams.  The first is Lindsay Hunter.  There is little doubt that Hunter’s shoot first type of point guard play does not fit with the Raptors style.  Rafer Alston has settled in nicely as the back up at point and that affords the Raptors the luxury of having a pass first guard come into the game and keep the flow and the rhythm.  With the excess of perimeter players now in uniform the Raptors do not need to move Alvin over to the shooting guard and can keep him strictly at the point.  Hunter no longer has a spot on this team and with one year remaining on his contract he could be useful for a team that is desperate for a point guard.  The other player drawing interest around the league is Morris Peterson.   Mo Pete is attractive for two reasons—he is young with a solid upside, and he is still on his rookie contract, one that does not come with a heavy financial commitment.  However those same attributes are the reasons why the Raptors are hesitant to move him.

       Bored sportswriters or commentators probably fuelled the recent rumours involving the Raptors and the Blazers and the Raptors and the Hawks.  The Portland deal had Rasheed Wallace being moved to Toronto, a trade that made absolutely no sense for two reasons.  First Wallace is the focal point of Portland’s offence and despite his temperamental ways is an established superstar in the league.  Portland is having a solid season and looks like a possible playoff success story.  Secondly, Wallace’s contract calls for an average of $16 million for the next two years and for the Raptors to swallow that much money they would have to move Davis and MoPete, and that doesn’t make any sense for the Raptors.  As for the Atlanta deal—the hawks were reportedly willing to send centre Theo Ratliff to the Raptors for Hunter and the Hakeem Olajuwon contract.  The Hawks are definitely trying to move Ratliff, whose contract calls for nearly $18 million over the next two years, but the Hawks are also desperately trying to regain their popularity within the region.  A deal to acquire Olajuwon’s contract, which still has another year on it, would be a severe waste of salary cap space.  Ratliff likely will be moved to Philadelphia for Derrick Coleman as Coleman’s contract expires this off-season.

       GM Glen Grunwald has gone on record stating that it is unlikely that he will make any moves at the deadline.  Obviously Grunwald is letting the public know that there won’t be anything major done.  Salary cap space, or luxury tax space, has become the most integral factor in any NBA deal.  No longer is it about a player’s ability or his character, now it’s about his contract.  And with a bounty of superstar players eligible for free agency in the off-season the talk has been about players such as Gary Payton, Michael Oliwakandi, and Andre Miller.  The top free agents will be Tim Duncan and Jason Kidd, both of whom are expected to sign with San Antonio—if Kidd decides not to re-sign with New Jersey.  Miller is expected to replace John Stockton in Utah and Oliwakandi is also expected to sign with the Spurs, replacing the retiring David Robinson.  Payton has stated that he would like to stay on the west coast and might be interested in the Clippers.  None of these players will consider, or will be considered by the Raptors who still believe they have, when healthy, a competitive club.  And since Grunwald might believe that he can get that talented frontcourt player with his likely lottery selection in the draft the need to make a trade at this point becomes unnecessary.   

      For the Raptors their priority this off-season might lie in the re-signing of the one player who has surprised everyone with his solid play—Voshon Lenard.  If Lenard is re-signed—he would likely command a two year deal of about $3-$4 million per year—then the Raptors would have the luxury of having four quality players for the shooting guard and small forward rotation to begin next year.  At this point Carter, Lenard and MoPete are filling those two spots nicely, but when Lamond Murray returns the team will have one too many players for the rotation.  This is where MoPete becomes expendable.  Chris Jefferies can be used in emergency situations, and with Carter and Murray already signed to long term deals this leaves one spot for either MoPete or Lenard.  Lenard is the more experienced player and the one more suited to coming off the bench.  MoPete can then be moved for an established frontcourt player.   There are rumours that the Memphis Grizzlies might be willing to lighten their frontcourt load by moving last season’s rookie of the year Pau Gasol.  To be even considering moving Gasol would be folly for the Grizzlies and with Jerry West now running the operation that scenario looks remote at best.  But if Gasol is available then the Raptors might have the players (MoPete, Michael Bradley, Hunter) to satisfy the Grizzlies’ needs.  If the Raptors were going to move MoPete they would need to receive a player who is also on his rookie contract, like Gasol.  The one remaining option open to the Raptors is to find a team willing to create salary cap space by absorbing the final year of Olajuwon’s contract.

       Realistically, the Raptors don’t have many players that interest other teams, and they don’t have any wiggle room under the cap.  With such severe restrictions hindering them it is likely that the trade deadline will come and go without a move being made.  It behooves Grunwald, therefore, to spout the positive at this time, and to let his team know that they have the full backing of management.  Privately, Grunwald may be looking at his roster and seeing the holes that most of us see, but since he is incapable of filling those needs at this time there isn’t any sense in demeaning his squad.  The moves for this team will come in the off-season, leading up to, and soon after, the draft. 

       The deadline will pass with very little being done, not only by the Raptors but also by most teams in the league.  The 76ers may be the only team desperate enough to make a deal and are trying very hard to make the Ratliff deal work.  Perhaps Dallas may be involved in a move as they seek some strength inside for an anticipated playoff match-up with the Lakers; perhaps a couple of the teams at the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff standings, like Orlando and Washington, might make a move.  But with the exact luxury tax figure still unknown it will force clubs to err on the side of caution.