February 25, 2003

TO VAN GUNDY OR NOT TO VAN GUNDY THAT IS THE RAPTOR QUESTION

       Now that it seems that the Raptors will be making a coaching change in the off-season the speculation turns to viable candidates.  The Raptors have been known to hire the person most suited to the team as it stands.  When the irascible Darrell Walker finally walked away the team needed the reserved patience of a Butch Carter.  When Carter imploded the team needed an experienced coach to reclaim respectability for the franchise—enter Lenny Wilkens.  Now that Lenny’s time has passed the team must again look for the perfect candidate.  The Raptors desperately need a return to the playoffs.  The organization is paying far too much in salary for a team to lurch around at the bottom of the NBA pack.  They need to ensure that their fan base does not grow weary of the basketball team, something that is possible given the trendy nature of the non Leaf Toronto sports fan—see Blue Jays.  Since the salary cap and luxury tax does not include coaches the Raptors can pay top dollar for the new man.  Even though there is still one year remaining on Lenny’s heavy contract the Raptors need to bring in the most qualified candidate.  No longer can the team afford to think about hiring an assistant, the fans would not stand for it.  The Raptors need to find an experienced head coach whose best days are not seen from the rear view mirror.  Could that person be former Knick head man Jeff Van Gundy?  It could be a very good match.

       There is little doubt that the Raptors would have a better record if Van Gundy were the coach this season.  Amid the cluster of injuries that befell the Raptors Van Gundy would have instituted the Knicks style of play—a suffocating defence, a slow tempo and a conservative offensive game plan.  Without their big guns for much of the year the Raptors could not afford to get into any high scoring affairs—they needed to win games 78-73.  But the defence had too many holes, and the offensive sets were harried and filled with quick shots.  The result was that the Raptors were constantly trying to break long losing streaks.  Van Gundy would have played more zone defences than Lenny.  He would have used players who worked hard on defence.  He would have exhibited much less patience than Lenny and would have sat players who were not giving the effort much quicker.  And he likely would not have been using the injuries as an excuse every time the Raptors came up short, something Lenny is still doing. 

       Granted not even Red Auerbach could have done much with five regulars and three ten-day contracts, and it is doubtless than any coach could have this year’s team around .500.  But the Raptors sold out 40 of their 41 home games last year and they struggled to make the playoffs.  With the attendance dropping this season (even though the team still ranks in the top four in the league) and the team playing such a moribund style of play the organization needs to do something to re-energize the city.  The hiring of Van Gundy would do just that.  He would bring experience, respect and a winning attitude to the club and to the city. 

       Now the difficult part.  Would the Raptors be willing to bring a high profile—and expensive—coach like Van Gundy to Toronto since they will still be paying Lenny?  Or, will Van Gundy, having had his contract with the Knicks end, be willing to give up his gig as an NBA commentator and return to coaching?  Would he be willing to come to Toronto?  The answer to each of those questions is yes.  Here’s why.  The fall in attendance is costing the Raptors money, and obviously the more it falls the more money is lost.  Let’s say that a full house (19,800) nets the Raptors $2 million which puts the average ticket price at about $100.   If the Raptors have ten games that sell well—say 16800—that means a loss of 3000 seats or $300,000 per game or $3 million in total.  How easy is it to then spend $5 million per season on a Van Gundy whose name would likely quell the drop in attendance and give the team the season to rebound.  As for Van Gundy wanting to come to Toronto—he has long stated that, after New York, Toronto was his favourite city.  The Raptors are an experienced club with an abundance of talent that looks ripe for a rebound—and if the team did return to being a playoff calibre team it would elevate Van Gundy’s reputation even more.  Van Gundy is a coach, and coaches can’t give up the notion of coaching—how else to explain Hubie Brown’s return after nearly two decades away from the court.  There won’t be that many coaching changes made in the off-season leaving very few opportunities available.  Would he want to go to L.A. and coach a bunch of underachievers, and work for a penny-pinching owner?  Would he want to go to Atlanta and try to clean up that mess?  Or how about Cleveland?  New Orleans may be the only other possibility for Van Gundy, and that’s only if Paul Silas leaves after the season.  Toronto, with Carter and Davis and a wealth of supplementary talent, still looks like a wonderful opportunity and it is unlikely that Van Gundy would pass it up.

       How valuable would Van Gundy be to the Raptors?  Beyond the much-needed instant injection of credibility he would bring a strong defensive system to a team that desperately needs a strong defensive system.  He would bring with him offensive sets that number more than the few that the Raptors presently operate with, and would either bring with him an offensive-minded assistant that could read the floor and open the game up for Carter or bring a more specific game plan than ‘get the ball to Vince and let him create’.  He would bring enthusiasm and energy and, after taking time off to recharge his batteries, a fresh attitude and an eagerness to succeed. 

       Lenny Wilkens was the only coach the Raptors targeted after Butch Carter was fired.  This off-season, after Lenny is let go, Van Gundy may be, once again, the only coach the Raptors go after.  Only if Van Gundy turns the job down will the Raptors begin to make a list of candidates.  Hopefully that won’t be necessary.