April 12, 2007

FIVE ITEMS TO WATCH AS THE NBA HEADS INTO ITS POST-SEASON

      From the sudden emergence of the Toronto Raptors as a potential NBA power to the perennially idiotic antics of Bonzi Wells and Ron Artest this NBA season has given us many interesting and entertaining moments.  There is the curious—the New York Knicks seemed anxious to extend Isiah Thomas’ contract and did so at the very first opportunity, there is the poorly attempted punch-up—Carmelo Anthony plugging the Knicks’ Mardy Collins and then retreating so fast he left sneaker marks on the MSG court, and there is the Philadelphia Story—Allen Iverson apparently ticking off the organization enough to send him home to await the inevitable trade to Denver.  As the regular season comes to a close there are five issues that will that stand out above all others as the post-season commences.

       Item 1 – Officiating.  In all sports, and the NBA isn’t any different, the officiating changes once the playoffs begin.  Minor infractions that were called during the regular season are ignored, and contact under the basket is not only allowed but also seemingly encouraged.  These changes invariably benefit clubs that push the envelope of the rules anyway—teams like Detroit, Miami and San Antonio. 

       Experienced players have learned over the years how to bend the rules but not break them, and experienced defensive-oriented clubs like the Pistons, Heat and Spurs make bending the rules a part of their defensive strategy.  If the referees begin games by whistling them for the infractions each club has a veteran head coach that pushes the officials, and experienced complainers on the floor who attempt to intimidate.  The Spurs are the only team that has even the slightest chance of victory if the game opens up and becomes a contest of athletic skill.  The Pistons and the Heat cannot win games that become offensive shows; each team needs to keep their opponent to around 85 points and under a 45% shooting percentage in order to win.  If they allow 100 points they won’t win.  The Spurs have the capability of winning a shoot-out but don’t have the weapons to keep up with say Phoenix if all the games in the series are high scoring.  Each team needs to ensure that games are played at their pace, and they need the officials to turn a blind eye to their persistent clutching, grabbing and shoving as they attempt to defend quicker opponents.  If the officials allow them to get away with minor infractions these teams will be difficult to beat.

       Item 2 – The Kobe Factor.  It appears as if the Los Angeles Lakers and the Phoenix Suns will have another first round set-to this year.  In last year’s playoff match-up the Lakers pushed the Suns to the brink only to have Phoenix completely demolish the Lakers in game seven.  Kobe Bryant is the league’s most dominant and consistent scoring machine and last year he single-handedly led the Lakers to the cusp of an early round upset of a much better team.  But, in that deciding seventh game, the aggressive defense of Raja Bell seemed to wear him down.  Kobe surrendered and became more of a secondary character as the game unfolded.  If the Lakers are going to push the Suns again this year they are going to need Kobe to be aggressive, to be consistent, and to be focused.  The Suns will throw every defensive strategy at the Lakers to take Kobe out of the game—including double and triple-teaming him—to force the ball out of his hands and make somebody else score.  If the Suns are successful in this strategy then the series will be a short one—the Lakers don’t have a secondary option, they need Kobe to score 40 points per game to have a chance at an upset.

       Item 3 – Those with something to prove.  There are teams, like Dallas, Houston, Cleveland and Chicago that need to find some success in these playoffs to thwart their critics and absolve choker labels that have been attached from previous failures.  There are also individuals that need to prove that they can rise to the occasion—Lebron James, Tracy McGrady. Vince Carter and Ben Gordon have to find a way to shake the notion that they can’t lead their team and win the big game.  For Carter it may be a lost cause.  The New Jersey Nets have struggled all season long and certainly appear to be a team that’s on the way down after several seasons of being one of the top clubs in the league.  Now a playoff afterthought the Nets are viewed as being undersized, broken-down and aging and don’t appear likely to make any impact during the playoffs.  For Vince he may have to be content with that one last second shot that didn’t drop against Philadelphia, when he was a member of the Raptors, as his most memorable playoff moment.  It says something about his character that he won’t be remembered for success (he scored 50 in game three of that same series) but for failure.

      Gordon is just beginning his career but the Bulls, having been eliminated in the first round two consecutive years, need to find some playoff success to substantiate the organization’s predilection for perimeter style players and scoring.  Gordon and his perimeter mates, Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich, feel the pressure of having to justify the club’s failed attempt to add an inside presence, on both offense and defense, and to reward their belief that this core is talented enough for playoff success.  McGrady is in a similar predicament, only on a larger scale.  This is McGrady’s tenth season in the NBA, and during his career he has won two scoring titles and has been acknowledged as one of the game’s best players for years.  However, in five appearances in the playoffs McGrady has yet to win a series.  This year McGrady’s Houston Rockets will be meeting the Utah Jazz in a match-up of equally talented clubs.  Will McGrady finally get that monkey off his back?  Or will it be just another disappointing end for a player that, because of continued back problems, is slowly moving toward the end of his career.

       Perhaps the player with the most pressure to find playoff success is Lebron James.  The mega-hyped former high school phenom led his team into the playoffs last season.  In fact, the Cavs won their first round match-up.  But Cleveland has been thought to be the up and coming club in the Eastern Conference, due to the immense talent of its best player.  But the Cavs have struggled all season and seem to have taken a step back this year.  If the Cavs become first round fodder—they will likely face Miami—then Lebron will find, for the first time in his young career, that he will be a lightning rod for criticism and blame for the club’s failure.  That will likely result in the firing of coach Mike Brown, after all somebody has to take the fall, and it won’t be the franchise player.

       Item 4 – Awards.  Steve Nash is the MVP.  It actually isn’t close.  He is the 8-cylinder engine that drives the Phoenix Suns, and without him they are strictly ordinary.  The argument that if Nash wins the award (for the third consecutive year elevating him into eclectic company--only Larry Bird, Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell have been so honoured) it will somehow denigrate the award because Nash has not won a title is absolutely asinine.  To use that argument to deny Nash would actually denigrate the award.  It would also denigrate all those that have won the award before him, would be an insult to the NBA and its players, and would severely remove any luster for all league awards.  Nash is the most valuable player this season…there is no dispute.

       Brandon Roy wins the rookie of the year.  This season’s freshman crop has not been as stellar as season’s past but Roy has been a starter for most of the season and this, along with the late season appendectomy for Andrea Bargnani, gives Roy the award.  Coach of the year should go to Toronto’s Sam Mitchell.  The Raptors were pathetic last season and have seen a monumental increase this year, and voters always look at teams that were bad one year and good the next.  Jerry Sloan will once again be a bridesmaid, but his Utah Jazz was a quality club last year and while they have shown improvement this year it hasn’t been as dramatic.   

       Item 5 – Oden or Durant.  Neither Kevin Durant nor Greg Oden appear ready to join the NBA and make an immediate impact.  Durant has already committed to the NBA draft while it is expected that Oden will as well.  Each freshman player has proven during their only college basketballs season that they have the athletic ability and the skill to one day be dominant NBA players.  Each, though, looks like they could use some additional seasoning at the college level but, in a hurry to be a professional athlete, and in a hurry to earn professional money; they will enter the draft and likely be the first two players selected.  The question becomes—which order?  That will depend, of course, on what team wins the lottery.  Of course there are very few teams that would take an athletic forward over a possibly dominant center and as such Oden will likely be the first pick.  But that will be a nice consolation prize for whichever team selects second.

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