April 21, 2004

MATCH-UPS SHOW THAT EITHER WOLVES OR SPURS WILL WIN TITLE

      The Lakers are old and slow; the Mavericks are weak in the middle; the Kings don’t play defense well enough; the Pistons don’t score enough, and the Pacers are too impatient.  These are the negatives thrown around by NBA pundits about this year’s title contenders.  The two teams left--San Antonio and Minnesota--seem to have the ingredients needed to win the championship and as such are predicted by the Fan View to be Western Conference Finalists.  But let’s look at all the teams involved:

       Lakers:  Everything begins and ends with this team.  They have the talent, they have the winning attitude and, most of all, they have the Diesel.  Much was made of the fact that the Lakers can send four future hall-of-famers onto the court, Shaq, Kobe, Payton and Malone and that these four should be enough to win a championship.  The problems that developed from this group are many—they are old and slow, they don’t have much depth, the triangle offense doesn’t appeal to freelancers like Payton and Kobe, and the unknown factor is whether Kobe’s criminal trial will affect the team’s pursuit of a title.  Karl Malone is the second leading scorer in the history of the game, but he is also 40 years old and unable to play 40+ minutes per game.  Gary Payton is slowing down now that he is in his mid-thirties and is constantly burned by quicker point guards like Tony Parker and Steve Nash.  During its run of three consecutive championships the Lakers could always count on a veteran presence off the bench—how many key shots did Robert Horry hit?  The team doesn’t have that presence anymore.  The Lakers will have some difficulty with the Rockets and then will bow out at the hands of the Spurs in the second round.

       Kings:  Sacramento had its chance two years ago and let it slip away.  Now the team looks a bit dysfunctional.  Vlade Divac is too old to play 40+ minutes and thus when it comes down to crunch time in games he usually finds himself replaced on the court by the younger and quicker Brad Miller.  Chris Webber is still trying to work himself into game shape—this team needs a fully functional Webber to have a chance at the crown.  The team has never been noted as a solid defensive team and its downfall has always been that it couldn’t contain a superstar down the stretch of a playoff game.  Coach Ric Adelman has shrunk his bench to such an extent that only two players—Miller and Anthony Peeler see the floor any extended time.  This will hurt—as will the loss of Bobby Jackson.  The Kings will fall to Minnesota in the second round.

       Mavericks:  For an organization that has been so close the past three years it is a puzzle why they haven’t made an attempt to shore up their one gaping hole.  Instead of acquiring a big man to plug up the middle, a shot blocker or a rebounder, they go out and pick up more perimeter players in the off-season—Antoine Walker and Antwan Jamison.  Maybe they thought that Danny Fortson was the guy, but Fortson is a power forward with small forward height.  Dallas’ failure to find the toughness that is absolutely essential in winning a championship will once again keep them from their ultimate goal.  The one question—how long does the organization continue to put an exciting product on the court, but one that will never win a title?  Chances to win—none.

       Detroit:  The Pistons apparently put themselves in the catbird seat when they picked up Rasheed Wallace at the deadline.  Realistically, this team was good enough to make it to the Conference Finals anyway—simply because the only other team in the conference, outside of Indiana, good enough to be a finalist is New Jersey and they are likely too beat up to defend their title.  Detroit’s stifling defense will keep them in every game—the issue becomes offense.  Will Rasheed give them that interior scoring they had been lacking?  Can they score enough to keep up with the Pacers who are nearly their equal on defense?  The only chance Detroit has at beating Indiana is if they can slow the game down, keep the Pacers on the perimeter, and use the Wallaces to beat up Jermaine O’Neal inside.   If Detroit can make it a blue-collar series they will beat the Pacers, and that’s exactly what the Fan View thinks will occur.  And won’t that be a kick in the pants for Rick Carlisle.

       Indiana:  Clearly the deepest team in the East, and probably the deepest team in the league.  The Pacers can run ten players out onto the court, they have that dominant presence in the paint—O’Neal, and they have the best perimeter defender in the game-- Ron Artest.  While Artest should be able to take Richard Hamilton out of the game he will not be able to stop Chauncey Billups as well—and it is unlikely that Jamaal Tinsley will be able to either.  O’Neal can dominate any team inside except for Jersey—Kenyon Martin—and Detroit—the two Wallaces.  The team is too deep for New Jersey, but it won’t matter, as Jersey will be facing Detroit in the semis.  Whichever team manages to advance to the conference semis will find Indiana too deep and too talented to beat.  For Indiana their only hope is that Jersey and Detroit beat each other up to such an extent that the winner will limp into the finals.  Otherwise a 60-win season will go down the drain.

       Spurs:  The defending champions may actually be better this year than last.  Parker is a more complete point guard this year, Hedo Tukoglu and Manu Ginoboli give the team quality scorers from the perimeter and Rasho Nesterovic gives the team a younger and more versatile center.  The downfall of this team lies at the free throw line.  Tim Duncan is the most difficult player to defend in the post, outside of Shaq, and will usually find himself at the line at least ten times per game.  He usually makes around 60%, and that total isn’t good enough when games will be decided in the final seconds.  The only team that can match up with the Spurs is the Wolves and if the Spurs can’t hit their free throws they will find themselves on the outside looking in at the NBA finals.

       Minnesota:  There are two major roadblocks facing the Wolves this playoff season.  First and foremost is their atrocious playoff history.  This team has made it to the playoffs for seven consecutive seasons, and was promptly dismissed in the first round for seven consecutive seasons.  Will this history create a negative feeling in this club?  Will they feel satisfaction after dumping Denver in the first round?  Will they be able to renew their passion in the second round when a much more difficult opponent—the Kings—come to town?  It is not likely that MVP Kevin Garnett will allow any satisfied feeling to pervade around the locker room.  His intensity and his determination will lift his team to greater heights.  The second issue facing this club is whether its playoff inexperience will create a nervousness and tightness when facing the Spurs in the conference finals.  The Wolves have the best team they have ever assembled, and with its diversity and its depth it should battle San Antonio down to the wire.  Losing Troy Hudson for the playoffs will hurt, but the team has enough depth to withstand that loss.  With its depth of shooters, its strengths down the middle, its ability to squeeze the life out of an opponent’s offense and its solid free throw shooting the Wolves should be able to best the Spurs, and then the Pistons and win the NBA title.  Unless they get nervous.