May 6, 2006

THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MAVS TO GET OVER THE SPUR-HURDLE

       Before getting into an analysis of the match-up between the two best teams in the Western Conference let me say that I think this is the year that Dallas finally gets by San Antonio.  Now that the prediction is out of the way I can begin to illuminate the reasons for making such a bold statement—after all most experts still believe that the defending champion Spurs will be victorious.  This year however, a combination of a newfound defensive philosophy exhibited by the Mavs and a serious case of plantar fascitis that has hobbled perennial all-star Tim Duncan will give Dallas the edge.

       Former Dallas coach Don Nelson loved offensive basketball.  His teams constantly pushed the ball, used speed and skill to find open shooters, and took a lot of shots with nary a nod toward the shot clock.  Nelson’s teams, however, had such a predilection for offense that the defense suffered.  Instead of staying down low and rebounding his perimeter players would be off like a pistol had fired once an opponent’s shot was missed.  Maverick centers were often left behind like they had the plague.  Nelson’s Mavs wanted to win games 115-105—simply outscoring their opposition.  This strategy worked well in the regular season, and against certain opponents in the playoffs but when the Mavs faced off with the sound defensive systems orchestrated by the Spurs, or more conventional offensive teams like Sacramento they were terminated.  Four straight fifty-plus win seasons netted them very little—the closest they came was a six game series defeat to the Spurs in the 2002-03 Western Conference Finals.

       Nowadays the Mavs have a different philosophy.  They know they can score but they are much more conservative in their approach to scoring.  They are much more careful with the ball, unwilling to make the flashy pass when an effective one can be made, they monitor the shot clock looking for the best possible scoring opportunity in the time allotted, and they, as a team, are focused on defense.  No longer is defense something they play until they can get the ball back—there is pride in their defense.  The Mavs no longer look to simply outscore opponents—they now play efficient basketball at both ends of the court.  The reason—Avery Johnson.  The former point guard has taken control of the team and emphasized defense.  If a player doesn’t defend it doesn’t matter how well he can score he won’t play.  This philosophy has made the Mavericks more playoff ready as in the post season when points come at a premium they won’t simply be jacking up poor shots.  They’ll be more patient and look for the best shot possible.

       The Mavs are a more fluid, controlled playoff ready club, and are now much better prepared to battle San Antonio.  The Mavs have athletic perimeter players that can slow down the Spurs penetraters Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, they have the depth to offset the experience the Spurs have coming off the bench, and they have a player in Dirk Nowitzki that had a much better year than Duncan.  And with Duncan not being as mobile as years past, and not being able to provide the high level and dominant low post presence on offense and solid shot blocking and rebounding on defense the Spurs have needed to utilize other players more often than in years past.  Whether Ginobili and Parker will be able to score forty-plus points per game between them (a seemingly necessary total) against the stronger Mav defense will go a long way in determining the series outcome.  If those two slashers find a way to get to the basket on a consistent basis then it won’t matter what else the Mavs can do, but if Dallas can keep them out of the paint it will severely limit the Spurs offensive production.

       All-star defender Bruce Bowen can’t simply concentrate on one player the way he can with most other teams.  There isn’t a dominant perimeter player on the Mavericks club so Bowen will be asked to alternately guard Nowitzki, Jerry Stackhouse, and any other player that starts to find a comfortable shooting rhythm.  The Mavs can simply play away from Bowen and reduce his effectiveness, and the slower moving Duncan can be put into foul trouble at earlier junctures of the game.  The Maverick centers, Dampier and Diop, should be able to cancel out any production from the Spur centers, Nesterovic and Mohammed, and the bench should be even as well as both teams can throw scorers and defenders onto the court depending on the situation. 

      Home court is a major advantage and the Spurs have it.  The advantage however will only come into play in the final three games of the series.  If the Mavs want to win the series they should look to do it in six games, a seventh game win in San Antonio will be very difficult to achieve.  So, when analyzing these two teams there doesn’t appear to be much to separate them…and there isn’t.  The difference will be that the Mavericks are younger, healthier, and hungrier.

      So…Mavs in six.  And oh, boy won’t that be fun watching Dallas’ thirteen-year old owner mug for the cameras over and over again.