June 14, 2006

THE BURNING RAPTOR QUESTION—IS BARGNANI A NOWITZKI-TYPE?

       Comparisons are a large part of the recruitment process.  When teams look at the youngsters available for the draft they instantly compartmentalize players so that it’s easier to judge them.  The last thing an NBA team wants to do is make a mistake with their first round draft choice.  That’s why teams spend so much time, energy, and money into the analytical process and try to acquire as much information as possible so they can take their best educated guess.  So they make comparisons to players that are presently playing in the NBA or to players that have completed successful careers.  That’s the situation the Toronto Raptors find themselves in as they try to take their best educated guess with the first overall pick in this year’s draft.

       The pre-draft hype from the Toronto corner surrounds European star Andrea Bargnani.  The skills that the Italian power forward possesses supposedly can be compared to present day NBA superstar Dirk Nowitzki.  Now, there have been players before that played in Europe that possessed a variety of skills and were supposed to be Nowitzki-type players.  Unfortunately, the only one in the NBA today who even remotely compares to the Dallas superstar is Memphis’ Pau Gasol, and even then Gasol has similar moves around the basket but is nowhere close to being considered an outside shooter.  That means that Nowitzki is unique.  How many seven foot players have ever played the game that possessed similar skills.  Nowitzki does all the things a star power forward can do, he can post up, he has a mid-range jump shot, he can defend down low and he can rebound.  But then tack on his ability to hit the outside shot, his ability to handle the ball like a guard, and his ability to be the focal point for his team on offense and you have a type of player never seen in the NBA before.  To compare a young player who has not proven himself at the upper level to this kind of player is totally unfair and sets this player up to fail.

      The Denver Nuggets in the 2002 draft drafted Nikoloz Tskitishvili in the first round and fifth overall.  Armed with many comparisons to Dirk Nowitzki the Nuggets made their best educated guess and thought they were getting a European player possessing the complete skill set who would develop into being a dominant player for many years.  Not only did Tskitishvili not develop into a superstar he became a throw-in on several deals over the following years and today he is completely out of the league.  Perhaps the Nuggets scouting staff was way off base with their scouting and were hoping rather than analyzing when they promoted this player and that he simply was never going to be good enough to be an NBA star. But coming into the league with the expectation of being the copy of a player that has no equal might have been too much pressure for the young man and he expectedly folded; never having the opportunity to get his feet wet in the league and grow as a player.  Could a similar fate befall Bargnani?  Perhaps.

       The Raptors are spending an awful lot of time studying Bargnani.  They first sent coach Sam Mitchell and Consultant Wayne Embry over to watch him play.  Then they sent more of their scouts over to watch him in the European playoffs and then finally GM Bryan Colangelo went over, not once but twice.  The Raptors have to be completely certain that Bargnani will develop into a player in the NBA.  This is a developing club that can’t afford to miss on their choice.  They can’t afford another Rafael Arajuo and expect to contend in the upcoming years.  Do they expect Bargnani to be a superstar?  Perhaps, but not likely.  More likely they hope he can become a serviceable player that can extend defences and open lanes up for Chris Bosh and Charlie Villenueva.  Ideally, the Raptors would like to move down in the draft figuring that Bargnani isn’t likely the first choice for many other teams.  If they have their heart set on the big Italian then they likely could draft him as low as fourth or fifth and would dearly love to trade down and get a useful player in return.  That prospect seems less likely since the lack of a definite number one player has lessened the interest for teams to move up in the draft, the way Utah did last year to grab Deron Williams.

       If they Raptors decide to keep the first overall selection, and they decide to take Bargnani with that pick then the worst thing they could do to him is make the comparison to Nowitzki.  It will create an air of expectation that he will most likely fail to realize, and it could definitely stunt his growth as a player in the league.  The best thing they can do is say that he possesses some of the same skills as Nowitzki but will not be a Nowitzki-type player.  That might lessen the burden of expectations that will already be present with being the first overall selection.

       Of course, this could all be an extravagant and carefully calculated load of hot air being put out through the NBA grapevine by the Raptors to gauge any interest in the first choice.  We won’t know that until the first selection is made on draft night.