June 30, 2006

RAPTORS DRAFT FRONT COURT DEPTH TO FACILITATE VILLANUEVA DEAL

      (Note--One day after posting this column the Raptors traded Villanueva to Milwaukee for T.J. Ford)

       How many times have you heard someone involved with NBA basketball comment on the fact that a good big is always better to have than a good small.  Translation—in the NBA it is far better to have a big team than a small team.  The Toronto Raptors added two more front court pieces to their roster on draft night and have created such a logjam that only a trade can lighten the numbers.  With that the likely candidate to moved out of town is rookie-of-the-year runner-up Charlie Villanueva. 

       Now, there is little doubt that Villanueva, having proved his critics wrong, can play in the NBA.  He showed an awful lot of skill last season, mostly on the offensive end, and appears to be someone who will improve and become a league all-star at some point in his career.  He has good range on his jump shot, can put the ball on the floor, and can get up and down the court with the best big men in the game.   The problem, at least in Toronto, is that he is suited to play the same position as Chris Bosh, who is already an NBA all-star and who is fast becoming one of the better players in the league.  Last year the Raptors had Villanueva at the small forward position to take advantage of his all-around skills and abilities, but at six-eleven he is too tall and too slow to guard the quicker small forwards that are in abundance in the league.  In reality, for Villanueva to grow into his potential he will need to be slotted into the power forward spot.  And, as I already stated, that position is already taken on Toronto’s roster.

       With first pick Italian star Andrea Bargnani on board, and having acquired veteran center Rasho Nesterovic the Raptors have bulked up their front line.  If they intend on having the other first round pick from last year’s draft Joey Graham be their future small forward then there really isn’t a place on the team for good ol’ Charlie.

       So, what is Villanueva’s market value?  What type of player can he attract?  Would it be outrageous to throw out the name of a five time NBA all-star, a member of the 2003 USA Basketball team, and one of the all-time great shooters—Ray Allen?  Would it be a stretch to say that Toronto and Seattle are having serious discussions about the possibility of a Villanueva-Allen deal?  Why would Seattle be inclined to move their leading scorer in the prime of his career and acquire a second year player who is still learning the professional game?  Why indeed.

       It’s obvious why this trade would take place from Toronto’s part—as for Seattle the reasoning is simple.  After struggling mightily last year they are quickly reaching the stage where they need to choose which perimeter-scoring star they want to build around—Allen or Rashard Lewis.  They are realizing that they cannot have a solid contender with both players on the floor, there are too many holes elsewhere in their roster and they desperately need some size and some defense.  At age 27 Lewis is four years younger than Allen, he brings a stronger inside offensive game and can rebound the ball.   The Sonics believe that they can net two players in a trade for Allen and fill two holes.  They can replace Allen with a decent scorer who is much better defensively (someone like Morris Peterson) and they can bring in an athletic big man who can draw the opposing power forwards away from the basket and open up the lane for someone like Lewis.  That is where Villanueva would be perfect.  The Sonics have a bunch of strong power forward-center types but none of them can match Villanueva’s athleticism and skill.  The Sonics think that the two Raptors could match Allen’s points per game average and will certainly add size and defense as well.

       The Raptors would be loath to give up Peterson, but it may be the only way the deal can be made.  However, Toronto would be looking to fill another void in their line-up with such a huge deal and would likely insist that the Sonics include one of their two fine point guards in the deal—Luke Ridnour or Earl Watson.  For the Sonics to do that they would need another player in return, and depending on the cap situation they might need a couple of more players to balance out the contracts.  The Raptors could include newly drafted P.J. Tucker, a grinding defensive-minded forward that Seattle could use off the bench, back up point guard Jose Calderon, and perhaps some cap ballast like Kris Humphries. 

       Such a huge trade would clear out most of Toronto’s bench and outside of a starting corps of Ridnour or Watson, Allen, Graham, Bosh and Nesterovic the team would be left with very few NBA caliber players on their roster.  But secondary players can always be acquired either though minor trades or free agency, and since nobody expects the Raptors to be a title contender next year the likelihood is there that they could still add a quality player or two in next year’s draft.  The team, though, would suddenly be able to put on the court a very competitive contingent that, in the weaker Eastern Conference, would almost certainly be a playoff contender.  And the club would still be young enough to project that its best years were still ahead of them.