September 18, 2006

THERE AREN’T ANY FAVOURITES FOR THIS YEAR’S NBA CROWN

      Ben Wallace felt disrespected and left Detroit for the Windy City.  Peja Stoyakavic couldn’t pass up the mega-dollars offered him by the Hornets and left Indiana.  The 76ers tried valiantly to trade Allan Iverson but failed, and Milwaukee tried hard to move Jamal Magloire and succeeded.  The Spurs restructured their frontcourt, the Mavericks added some experienced pieces to their puzzle while the Heat and the Suns did basically nothing.  In the end, which teams made the moves necessary to separate themselves from the other title contenders?  The answer…none of them.

      Being the defending champions, and returning pretty much the same roster that won the title the Miami Heat will go into the season as the favourites to repeat.  But their championship was won because, for a short period of time--four games--Dwyane Wade was unstoppable.  Can it occur again?  Of course.  Is it likely?  No.  Not since an aging roster is one year older and will have less to prove now that they have won that ring. 

       The Pistons look to be slightly inferior than they were last year, having to absorb the loss of their central figure on defense.  The club wants to be more of an offensive team, and that should happen, but it was the defense that got them to the finals two years in a row and enabled them to win their championship.  Turning a dominant defensive club into a running offensive team isn’t easy and while the Pistons will find success it is difficult to think that they have improved enough to get back to the Finals.

       The two clubs in the Eastern Conference thought by most to have enhanced their talent to challenge the Heat and the Pistons are the Bulls and the Cavs.   Chicago will be better now that they have a defensive presence in the middle, and the addition of PJ Brown gives them some depth and experience in the frontcourt.  But what was essentially a perimeter scoring team last season is still the same this season, and everyone knows that outside scoring is inconsistent—here today, gone tomorrow.  Fore the Bulls to contend they are going to have to find some kind of post-up player who can be the central figure on offense.  Cleveland finds itself in the same position as last year—one phenomenal player needing to play at an incredibly high level all the time for the team to have even the slightest chance at a title.  The Cavs did not, or could not because they are pretty much capped out, address their primary needs—a solid point guard, and a secondary scorer behind LeBron.  They may be hoping that Larry Hughes can fill both needs, but Hughes is better off the ball, and he is at his best as a third option on offense.  They too have holes that could keep them from a title.

       Indiana is hoping that the return of Al Harrington and a full season removed from the Ron Artest circus will make the Pacers a contender again.  But, again, the Pacers have holes in their roster—they need Jamaal Tinsley to be a dominant point guard and they hope that Harrington and Jermaine O’Neal can combine to give them above average frontcourt scoring and rebounding.   The Pacers look to have fallen into the second tier with…Milwaukee seems to be treading water, though they believe that a frontcourt combination of Andrew Bogut and former Raptor Charlie Villenueva will lead them to a title in the future.  The future, for the Bucks, is not now.  New Jersey seems to be the best of a bad lot in the Atlantic Division, but they are once again held back by a lack of depth up front.  The backcourt trio of Vince Carter, Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson are talented enough to get the Nets to the playoffs again, but they aren’t enough to capture a crown.

       In the West the Conference champion Mavericks believe the team that came within a couple of victories of a title last season is good enough to make another run.  As such they simply added some minor pieces to their puzzle with veterans Anthony Johnson, Devean George and Austin Croshere.  The Mavs look to be the best team in the conference, and perhaps the best team in the league, but that will depend on whether Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry and Josh Howard can continue putting together outstanding seasons.

       The main competition for the Mavs still appears to be the Spurs and the Suns.  San Antonio reworked their frontcourt by dumping their slow-footed centers and replacing them with more athletic big men, obviously in an attempt to defend other athletic big men like Nowitzki and Sacramento’s Brad Miller.  The league seems to be moving away from the slow plodding style that benefited large centers, and is developing into a more athletic, open court game that benefits quicker big men.  With Tim Duncan’s more methodical approach the club needed more quickness around him.  The Suns appear comfortable that a return to good health for Amare Stoudamire will be enough for them to compete for a crown.  They might be right.

       There really aren’t any other major threats to the title around.  Denver has a good club, as do the Lakers, the Clippers and the Grizzlies but none are considered of championship calibre.  Houston might actually live up to its potential and put a quality team on the court and the Grizzlies, though a solid team, will have to do without their main man Pau Gasol for a few months as he recovers from that broken foot he sustained at the world championships.

       Unless Cleveland and/or Chicago in the East and Denver in the West can sustain a high level of play through the season and into the playoffs it appears as if this year will be much like last year.  The same teams will be fighting for the title.