October 24, 2005

DEVELOPING RAPTORS WILL BE MUCH BETTER THAN EXPECTED

       Then again, how could the Toronto Raptors not be better than expected?  Most, if not all, NBA pundits have predicted the team to finish not only near the bottom of the Eastern Conference but also near the bottom of the entire league.  Descriptions such as “talentless” and “going nowhere” lead the Raptors into the new season, after “clueless” and “rudderless” chased them through the off-season.  The problem lies in the fact that most, if not all, of those supposed basketball soothsayers have failed to look long enough at the Raptors’ roster.  Though it may take some time before the new kids gel with the old boys the club could prove to be a major surprise by season’s end. 

       Any success the Raptors have this season will spawn from one descriptive word—effort.  Last season there were far too many games with long stretches of lackadaisical play and disinterest on the court, and that led to far too many games where the club would be forced to come from behind late to make the game competitive.  Coach Sam Mitchell showed that he would not play favourites—he would play those who showed enthusiasm and energy.  But last year’s fractured, emotionally stunted, and often-volatile roster has been reshaped.  Gone are the whiner (Vince Carter) and the problem-child (Rafer Alston).  In their place the club has added youth and some much needed professionalism.   

      Last year General Manager Rob Babcock was roasted from Toronto to Miami and it appeared as if his plan to rebuild the Raptors was drawn up on cocktail napkins and tissue paper.  It began with a lousy draft, followed with a terrible free-agent signing, and culminated with a rotten trade.  Raptor fans began building a raft out of those same disposable type papers and were ready to ship Babcock out to sea.  But this off-season went much better for the beleaguered executive.  His choice of Charlie Villenueva, despite the predictions of most analysts, will prove to be a solid one, and his second pick in the draft, Joey Graham, will turn out to be a pearl of a pick.  His one free agent signing, again a point guard, will turn out much better this time as rookie Jose Calderon has a veteran’s instinct and a nifty passing touch.  Babcock must be smiling—his team is starting to look like it has a future.

       The downside is that with a glut of rookies and NBA neophytes this team will take quite some time to come together.  It could be a very slow and unproductive first month or so as the youngsters show their inexperience and make a ton of errors when faced with the quickness of NBA defences, the double-teams, the traps and screens, the plethora of games and the long travels.   Already during pre-season games there are moments of frustration as the rookies make series of mistakes and sometimes look out of place.  However, they are talented enough to come back later in the same game and make an impact.  Villenueva had a couple of turnovers early in Monday’s Portland tilt and appeared frustrated by the errors.  Mitchell removed him from the game and allowed him time to settle down before re-inserting the former U. Conn star.  There will be plenty of similar circumstances this year and if the team is going to grow the Raptor coach has to take a more sedate and patient approach to his young players and be less domineering than he was last season.   

      There are some great strengths on this year’s club.  On offense the club can create match up problems for its opponents when both Bosh and Villenueva are on the court.  Bosh being a left-handed shot can set up on the left post and if he is double-teamed—something he will see often—he can kick it out, and the ball can be moved around to Villenueva who, as a right handed shot can set up on the right post.  When the two big men learn each other’s moves they will be able to combat the double teams down low and open up the paint.  Bosh ‘s game will move up a level and could result in an all-star selection. 

       The criticism revolving around the choice of Villenueva in the draft surrounded the fact that he plays the same position as Bosh.  However, the Raptors intend on using the rookie as the first man off the bench, replacing the departed Donyell Marshall, and could set Villenueva up as a sixth man of the year candidate.  The rookie will provide much more interior offense and shot blocking on defense than Marshall and still possesses the ability to hit the outside shot.

       Last year penetrating point guards killed the team.  This year the position is in the hands of much better defenders.  Mike James will begin the season as a starter, and is an effective defender and outside shooter.  Calderon will be the starter at some point this year as his court awareness, his leadership, and his ability to find the open man are already on display, and as he grows more comfortable with the league, his team and the language his play will improve.  The perimeter defense will also be much improved as rookie of the year candidate Graham, MoPete and, when healthy, Eric Williams have the ability to guard one-on-one.  Rose and Bosh will be team leaders until the team solidifies its rotation.  Rose also might be moved some time around the trade deadline—pushed out of his spot by Graham and Mo Pete, and out of his leadership role by Bosh and Eric and Alvin Williams. 

       The negatives—The team needs to find a way to limit the bad shots taken by Rose and MoPete.  Rose must adapt his game and realize he doesn’t have to do everything himself on offense and hopefully Mo will realize that he is, at best, an average outside shooter and curtail many of those long range misfires.  The team also needs to work harder on transition defense, coming off screens, and the pick and roll.  Simple offensive sets still give this team fits and they won’t win many games until they solve these riddles.  They have enough talent and, if they provide the effort, they will stay competitive in most games, but they won’t win many of them as good teams will abuse them in crunch time.  The team still requires one of its centers to step up and provide some quality minutes.  If Villenueva and Bosh are on the court too long together they will be battered by bigger and stronger frontcourt players.  Rafael Arajuo has looked like an improved player this pre-season (how could he not improve over last year’s disastrous rookie campaign) and he could begin to supply that interior presence.  He still makes too many mistakes though to be afforded long stretches of playing time.   

      This Raptor club looks somewhat similar to the Chicago Bulls of last season, a club that started 0-9 but recovered to make playoffs.  Post season is likely still a reach though but this team finally looks like it’s taking a positive step forward.