November 16, 2004

LAKERS, NETS GOING FROM PENTHOUSE TO OUTHOUSE

      I know!  I know!  Two weeks has already elapsed in the new NBA season, so why am I doing a season preview now?  The answer is very simple--unlike those fancy magazines that can send their writers to the various cities to scout the teams, or those that can rely on reports from host reporters, I am on my own.  So, I need to take an initial look at the teams to get a feel for where they stand.  And from what I have seen there are some surprising facts.  The most shocking of all is how bad the L.A. Lakers look.  Sure, it was expected that the team would take a bit of a dip since it traded the game’s most dominating player, but this team will now have a very difficult time just making the playoffs.  Quite a change for a team that went to the Finals last season.

       Since I have started with the West I’ll continue on that vein.  The strongest looking clubs right now look to be San Antonio and Minnesota.  This isn’t noteworthy considering these clubs were championship caliber last season (both lost to the then playoff hardened Lakers in the post season) and did very little to change their rosters.  The Spurs actually look better as they added Brent Barry to their backcourt and should win the newly formed Southwest Division.  The Spurs will face competition from the two other Texas clubs.  The Dallas Mavericks had another complete makeover in the off-season and look to be as strong as ever (good enough to contend but not good enough to win).  The Houston Rockets made a huge splash acquiring, and then signing, the talented but never happy Tracy McGrady.  The question becomes—how long will it take before coach Jeff Van Gundy’s conservative style begins to grate on the superstar?  The Memphis Grizzlies had a phenomenal year last season, and should be solid again this year—but they will struggle to just make the playoffs.  The New Orleans Hornets will discover that their move out of the eastern Conference was a disaster waiting to happen—and this year that disaster will happen.  The Hornets are a team that will be looking at making a major trade—say Vince Carter.

       The middle division—Northwest—isn’t nearly as strong.  Minnesota, providing their two veteran complainers, Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell, play hard should win the division, and the rebuilt Utah Jazz should be their main rival.  The Denver Nuggets were supposed to be vastly improved this year, having added Kenyon Martin, but the Nuggets will struggle with the high expectations, and, having lost Voshon Lenard for the season, will come to rely too heavily on Martin and Carmelo Anthony for scoring.  The Nuggets will battle the Lakers for the final playoff position in the conference.   Both Portland and Seattle have solid clubs, but both have too many holes to make the playoffs even though both clubs could finish above .500.

       The Pacific is the conference’s weakest division.  The aging Sacramento Kings have begun their descent from being a member of the NBA elite, but could still win the division.  There isn’t a strong club here.  The Lakers now have Chris Mihm as their center.  Chris Mihm?  Phoenix is improved, but not enough to contend, and the Clippers and Golden state are…well…the Clippers and Golden State—both bottom feeders.  There is a strong possibility that only the division winner will make the playoffs.

       The entire Eastern Conference mirrors the Pacific Division.  Outside of Indiana and Detroit there isn’t any continuity among the contending clubs.  The Miami Heat are expected to be a contender now that they have acquired the league’s most dominant player, but there are question marks concerning their depth.  They should, however, win the very weak Southeast Division.  The surprise club could be Orlando.  Being the league’s doormat last year, and having been forced into trading their one superstar, the Magic could be forgiven if they publicly made a “five-year plan”—the customary number of years with which poor teams try to sway their fans.  The Magic, however, are much better already.  The drafting of Dwight Howard looks like an ingenious move in a draft that didn’t look to be very deep beyond Emeka Okafor.  And the McGrady trade netted them three starters.  Also having Grant Hill back—for how long is anybody’s guess—can only help.  If this team stays healthy they will make the playoffs.  Washington is getting close to being a playoff club, but they aren’t there yet, and Atlanta and Charlotte are both bottom of the barrel clubs.

      The Atlantic Division is wide open.  Only New Jersey looks to be out of contention—and who knows how much they’ll improve when Jason Kidd gets back.  Philadelphia looks to have last season’s mess straightened out and the Raptors have added some substance and some depth.  If Toronto can find a way to fix the Vince Carter situation—trade him or get him to play to his capability—then they should win the division.  And winning the division won’t take much—say 45 wins.  The 76ers will be in the mix as well, having solidified their frontcourt by getting rid of an aging Derrick Coleman and dumping the selfish Glenn Robinson.  Boston looks about as mediocre as they have in recent years, and even the trade for Gary Payton won’t help get this club over the hump.  They are a team in transition.  The Knicks are the typical New York team—over paid and overestimated.  The team will struggle all season just to stay around .500—which in the east might be good enough to be a playoff squad.

       The Central Division houses the two elite clubs in this conference—and unfortunately one of either Indian or Detroit will finish in second spot and be able to garner no higher than the fourth seed for the playoffs.   Milwaukee and Cleveland are in the mix for the playoffs and could make this a four-team playoff division holder.  Only Chicago isn’t invited to the party—they are going through their third rebuilding phase since Michael retired.

       So let’s look at the playoff teams in each conference.  In the West Minnesota and San Antonio should be one-two with the winner of the Pacific getting the third seed—probably the Kings in their swan song season as contenders.  Utah, Dallas and Houston are just about guaranteed playoff berths, leaving five clubs—Lakers, Denver, Seattle, Portland and Memphis to vie for the final two spots.  It says here that Denver and Memphis will be the teams to squeak in, leaving the perennial champion Lakers on the outside looking in.  Sorry, Kobe.

       In the east the Pacers and the Pistons are locks, as are the Heat.  The Raptors and 76ers will duel to the wire for the third seed—Philly will come out on top, but the Raptors will make the playoffs.  That leaves three spots for Orlando, the Bucks, the Cavs, the Celtics and the Knicks.  The Magic will get in, as will the Cavs and the Knicks. 

       There you have it—a fearless forecast for the year.  Of course this doesn’t mean that I won’t amend these predictions come the all-star break—after all it is my website.