December 16, 2002

RAPTORS MAY SOON NEED TO DISCARD FORGETTABLE SEASON

      With another loss on the board, this one to a very beatable Washington Wizard team, the Raptors now find themselves swimming in the murky waters alongside perennial division bottom feeders.   The Raptors are tied with the forever-hopeless Chicago Bulls for the fifth worst record in the NBA, and with seven of the next nine games on the road the waters don’t appear to be clearing anytime soon.  Whether you use words like excuse, or reason, or fact to describe the Raptor injury bug it is apparent that the virus will not be fading anytime soon.  And it is also becoming apparent that this squad cannot play the smart error-free basketball that shorthanded teams need to play to win.  At some point the Raptors are going to have to decide whether they will to continue to bang their heads against the wall or whether they will start to make plans for the future. 

      Lenny Wilkens has been in the game so long he probably went to dinner with James Naismith.  Lenny says that he has never seen a situation like this where so many key players are struck with nagging injuries.  There was one game when the Raptors had eleven players—a win over Chicago—and Lenny joked about how odd it felt to have that many players in uniform.  He shouldn’t have tempted the gods.  Davis went out with a knee injury during that game, then Carter banged his knee in practice the next day, and finally Alvin burned his ankle in the game in Cleveland.  Without its three best players the Raptors lost to the worst team in the league, and then ran out of gas against a Seattle team that didn’t show up until the fourth quarter.  While Alvin came back to play against the Wizards he is limping noticeably, and with Davis and Carter not expected back at least until Christmas the prognosis for this team in the near future is bleak.  After the New Year’s Day game in New York the Raptors will have completed 32 games, which is approximately 40 percent of the season.  It would be an incredibly successful run if the Raptors were to win four of those next nine games, and if they did it would give them a record of 11-21.  If a .500 record were needed to have a shot at the playoffs then the Raptors would have to go 30-20 over the final 50 games.  If the team was healthy, if the team was operating at a fully functional level, if the team was playing in rhythm and everyone was contributing then that record would be feasible.  But how likely is it than any of those three qualifications will come true?  With Lamond Murray out until March, with Eric Montross likely gone for the year, and with Vince, Alvin, Lindsay Hunter, JYD, and Antonio likely to be plagued by nagging injuries the whole year it is unlikely that the team will ever be healthy.  The team cannot be led into the playoffs by the likes of Voshon Lenard and MoPete.   

      With New Jersey, Philadelphia, Boston, Detroit, New Orleans and Indiana firmly established as the top six teams in the conference, and since Orlando has plenty of scoring, and an MVP candidate in T-Mac, they will likely be the seventh team in the playoff picture.  That leaves Atlanta, Milwaukee, Washington, and Toronto as the remaining candidates for the eighth and final playoff spot.  While it is improbable that any of the other three teams will string enough victories together to separate themselves from the pack it is probable that the Raptors will continue to struggle which would drop them far enough off the pace to effectively eliminate any playoff hopes.  

       When the season started the Raptors were presumed to be, at best, a bottom of the playoff pack team.  And that was when they were completely healthy.  The departure of Keon Clark left the team without a quality centre and, outside of Davis, no low post presence both offensively and defensively.   The team was counting on a healthy Vince, the continued development of MoPete and Alvin, and the acquisition of Murray to cover the offensive holes.  But Murray got hurt before the season even started and it is obvious that Vince is not, and may not ever be, completely healthy.  As for MoPete it is becoming apparent that he is someone who is best suited to play a secondary role, probably a 20-28 minute role player off the bench, and cannot-- or will not--become the slasher and the driver everyone expected.  He is much too content to remain on the perimeter and hoist wobbly three -pointers.  If Murray were healthy it is likely that he would start or, at least, pick up most of the small forward minutes.  The biggest hole on the team is inside.  Without Davis the team does not have anyone capable of keeping opposing players away from the basket, and you can see players like Jerry Stackhouse and Gary Payton and even a rookie like DaJuan Wagner salivating as they look to drive the ball to the hole.  And bigger stronger players like Kwame Brown and Brendan Heywood merely set up in the paint and put up shots and collect rebounds at will.  The Raptors are usually crushed in the ‘points in the paint’ category each and every game.

       The Raptors have dug themselves a deep hole this year.  They remain positive and believe that when they get some bodies back they will be primed to make a playoff push.  It is likely, however, that they will not have a lengthy enough stretch of games with all their players healthy to be able to get on a roll.  It is more likely that they will continue to stumble and bumble and tumble as the season progresses.  At what point do the Raptors realize that this forgettable season should be forgotten?  It was just two seasons ago that the Raptors came within a bucket of the eastern conference finals.  Since then the Raptors have tumbled down in the standings.  If the goal is to get to the NBA Finals then it is apparent that this team, as it is presently comprised, will not reach that goal.  There are major pieces missing.  Where can these pieces be found? 

       If the Raptors miss the playoffs then they will have a lottery pick, and for the first time in years they will be able to draft a quality player.  While MoPete is a decent enough player and Michael Bradley looks to have some potential the team needs an impact type player.  With a high draft choice the Raptors can select either a quality defensive center whose offensive skills can grow in time, or they can select a burly power forward who has a decent low post game, can provide some physical play under the basket and can rebound.  There are enough quality perimeter players on the team that perhaps GM Grunwald can move one to improve the teams’ interior flaws.  And finally it is time for the team to start looking to the future as far as a head coach is concerned.  Lenny Wilkens is a quality coach and a quality person, but he is at the end of his coaching career.  The Raptors need to inject some enthusiasm, some emotion, some discipline and some youth into their coaching staff.  They need someone who isn’t afraid to bench a player, even Vince, who is not performing.  Lenny has patience, but too much patience has a tendency to lose its virtue and become a serious flaw. 

       The Raptors will likely wait until the all-star break to evaluate the season.  At that time if they are far enough away from a playoff spot and continue to struggle with injuries they will have to make the decision and forget this year.  They can play Chris Jefferies and Bradley and perhaps Mamadou (if he ever can stay healthy for more than a couple of games), they can take it easy on Alvin, Davis and Vince, and they can make plans and set up their roster to return to their rightful spot as an eastern conference power.  If they continue to try and make the playoffs this year they may be stuck down at the bottom of the playoff pack for years to come. 

       The Raptors should take step back, re-evaluate, and make the necessary improvements. Sometimes a team has to take a step back to move forward.