December 24, 2003

RAPTORS SETTLING IN AS MEDIOCRE CLUB AFTER TRADE BOOST

       Now that the euphoria over moving out all-star whiner Antonio Davis and the moving in of offensive stalwarts Jalen Rose and Donyell Marshall has died down the Toronto Raptors have returned to earth and to their expected mediocre level.  When Davis was finally jettisoned, packaged with fellow defensive stalwart Jerome Williams, the face of the Raptors changed overnight.  The team went from being a solid defensive club that couldn’t score to a team that could score but couldn’t defend; from a team that would never see three digits—both offensively and defensively—to a team that routinely hits both highs.  Either way the results have changed very little—they are still a moribund team that, as presently constituted, will finish in the middle of the NBA pack.

       Fortunately for the Raptors they play in the dead ball conference and a .500 record not only will guarantee them a playoff spot in the East, but also just might place them as high as fifth.   It does not, however, camouflage the major holes in the team.  It cannot, on most nights, keep the opposition from scoring and will, again on most nights, need to out-shoot their opponents.  The lack of inside presence on defense is a monstrous cavern of a hole as it allows opposition ball-handlers to penetrate into the paint at will.  The drive and kick—a simple basketball play—is incredibly effective against the Raptors.  Without any interior quality to deter dribble drives ball-handlers penetrate and force the Raptors to clog up the middle with quantity.  This opens up the perimeter for shooters who can hoist jump shots without any fear of a defender closing in on them.  When shooters get hot then the Raptor perimeter defenders stay close on the outside and that opens up the middle.   Close games will be lost because of this deficiency.

       The Raptors do have the ability to compete on a shot for shot basis with many teams in the league.  The team went down to the final few minutes in Dallas—before the exhaustion of a back-to-back caught up with them—and had a chance to send the defending champion Spurs into overtime when Marshall’s last second open three pointer wouldn’t fall in San Antonio.   The team has the confidence that if it stays close it can win in the end.  Of course that philosophy is a double-edged sword as they often put out half-hearted efforts early in games and are forced to come back from double-digit deficits.

       The difference between the early season defensive club and the offensive machine that takes to the court these days is minimal.  They still have to play tight defense in order to win, and they need to move the ball and take quality shots on offense to give themselves the best chance at victory.  But where the early season team had little chance if they fell behind, this team now can come back from a deficit.  This team has the potential to play solid defense, and if it does it will certainly win more than it loses.  But in order to affect the greatest success the team desperately needs an experienced interior defender.  Chris Bosh does yeomen’s work in the paint and is an effective shot-blocker, but he is too thin to contain the larger post players in the league and he makes far too many rookie mistakes to be counted on as the last man on defense.  Marshall has taken it upon himself to replace JYD as the team’s number one rebounder and recently is doing a tremendous job, but being counted on so much at both ends of the court will wear him down as the season progresses.  He needs help.  Lonny Baxter has been an effective role player since arriving from Chicago but he is also far too inexperienced and to count on him for more than 14-18 minutes a game is putting him in a situation in which he will fail.  Unless reinforcements arrive shortly Coach O’Neill is going to have to bite the bullet and extend his bench.  He is going to have to find a way to get Jerome Moiso and Lamond Murray into games if, for nothing else, to ease the heavy workload and responsibility being heaped on his starters.  Marshall, Rose and Bosh will not be effective later in season if they continue to see 40+ minutes every game.

       It has also been noted recently that there were reasons why his previous teams were reluctant to have Rose be the main ball handler.  He is a gambler who gets too excited on the break and will often try to thread a pass through a forest of players.  He is turnover prone and will take the occasional bad shot.  He is also an average defender who is easily beaten off the dribble by smaller and faster point guards.  In a recent game against the Knicks Rose was burnt early by Allan Houston and was replaced as the Knick shooting guard’s main defender by Alvin Williams and MoPete. 

       The expected return to normal for Alvin has not materialized.  The team was hoping for an average point production in double figures but Alvin has struggled to find his shot this season.  The move to shooting guard and having Rose around to ease his ball handling responsibilities has helped a little, but not enough to warrant heavy minutes.  This is where Milt Palacio should come in.  Forgotten in the aftermath of the trade Palacio is an effective point guard when asked to play perhaps ten minutes a game—five minutes per half--and simply change the tempo.  And there has to be some time during a game when O’Neill looks down his bench and thinks—“This would be a good time to see if Murray can open up the zone defense”.  He has to look to other players when his usual eight are putting together an incredible stinker like they did against Orlando.

       The next couple of weeks will go a long way in determining whether the Raptors are a team on the rise or a team merely treading water.  If the all-star break arrives and the Raptors still have not added an interior defender, or still haven’t worked out the defensive kinks then they could easily fall down the Eastern Conference ladder, and perhaps miss the playoffs entirely.