December 30, 2002

TAKE HEART RAPTOR FANS A REVIVAL WILL TAKE PLACE—NEXT SEASON

       It is certainly much more difficult and much less entertaining watching Raptor games this season.  It is reminiscent of the horrendous 16-66 season that is down in its annals as the low point in franchise history.  The emotional involvement is nearly depleted as game after game comes and goes and the losses mount.  It no longer is a matter of whether the Raptors will win, it is now a question of how well they play to decide how badly they will lose.  The fans no longer expect wins, and apparently, judging by their demeanour on the court, neither do the players.   The playoffs are out of reach—but the season can be considered a positive one if a few things take place.

      First, let’s look at the problems. 

      Injuries.  Yes, they should not be used as an excuse, but when quality players are missing for an extended period of time it affects not only the play of the team but its confidence.  Without Carter and Davis for long stretches the team has been without its leader and without its best player, and has looked lost without them.  Though they won games at the end of last year without Carter it took a lot of losses before they found their way, and that was with Davis leading the way.  This year’s team has enough quality players to stay close in most games, but is missing the extra ingredients and the confidence needed to get over the hump at the end of games.

     Coaching.  This team continues to make the same mistakes over and over again.  While the general feel for the coaching staff is good—the team is still trying and still playing hard despite the mounting losses, and the team has not turned its bitterness inward—there has to be a reason for the continued mistakes.  Quick shots, turnovers, poor screens, moving screens, poor communication (if any at all) on defence, lousy defensive rotation, holes in the lane the size of a moving van, watching the ball and forgetting about the man, lousy box-outs, no creativity on offence, and questionable player rotations have plagued this team all year.  The coaching staff has to be held accountable for many, if not all of these errors.  Without your best players a team has to play nearly error-free basketball and solid if not spectacular defence to win.  Giving up more than 92 points per game is not going to net many wins even with a full rotation.

      Confidence.  It is officially gone.  With so many close games being lost in the fourth quarter it is obvious that the team starts to feel the pressure of another oncoming loss, and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.  Each player feels the need to carry the team through the crucial moments of the game and starts hoisting up quick jump shots.  The problem is exacerbated by the fact that their opponents turn up their defensive intensity, as they sense victory, and the shots that were open in the first three quarters are not open in the fourth.  As the confidence level of their opponents grows, the Raptors confidence level sinks.  Suddenly there are four, five, six minute stretches in the latter parts of games where the Raptors don’t get close to sinking a basket.  Instead of playing with calm efficiency and moving the ball around, and taking advantage of the increased intensity of their opponents the Raptors get sucked into it and fall prey.  Even the return of Carter and Davis won’t fix this problem.  It is a team wide phenomenon. 

      Now let’s look at the positives.  Every team has to learn how to lose—at least to learn how bad it feels to lose—before it can win.  The Raptors are a franchise that reached the bottom in its third year and have been climbing out of that hole ever since.  It looked like the team was prepared to enter the fray of perennial eastern conference contender two years ago, but lacklustre performances held the team back last season, and the injuries have created a losing atmosphere this year.  The team has been through great victories and they should have a great desire to work through the present day problems and get those feelings back.  This year the Raptors are learning that working hard is not enough to win, they must also work smart, and when the injured players return and the Raptors begin to win their share of games again then the lesson could prove invaluable down the road. 

      Player improvement due to added playing time.  Michael Bradley is the poster child of a player making the most of limited opportunities.   Bradley has worked himself into the regular rotation as a the back-up power forward and has been doing a solid job on the glass--and his defence is getting better with each passing game.  He still makes mental mistakes, and still hasn’t earned the respect of the officials, and thereby gets lot of cheesy calls against him, but as his jump shot improves so will his offence, and then his minutes will grow even more.  Because of the injuries JYD is being asked to start at power forward—his rightful spot is first forward off the bench, and Voshon Lenard has been pulling starter’s minutes—and has looked tired down the stretch of games—when he should be the back-up shooting guard.  Nate Huffman has shown that he does possess some ball handling skills—he just needs to learn the NBA game.  Hopefully Huffman isn’t so delicate however, that he will take over from Yogi Stewart before and Mamadou N’Diaye now as players on the roster used to fill spots on injured reserve.  Jelani McCoy is also proving that he can play in the league, but he needs the minutes to avoid the silly fouls, the silly mistakes, and the airhead errors that he makes every game.  MoPete seems to be finding himself a little bit at a time.  This season has been his most trying as he finds himself in a situation where he needs to be the top scorer.  The forced shots and wobbly long range bombs are slowly disappearing from his game as he discovers that he does have the quickness to get to the basket, and does possess the strength to survive the hits and therefore add to his point totals at the free throw line.  And Alvin is assuming more of a leadership role, and that has not only improved his game but has helped strengthen his ability to manage the game.  Now if only Lenny could give Chris Jefferies some decent playing time so we can see if this guy has any ability.

      Without injuries this team looks to possess ample depth.  If the players are all healthy then we can look at three definite starters in Alvin, Vince, and Davis.  There is McCoy and Huffman at center and MoPete and Lamond Murray at small forward.  Throw in Lindsay Hunter, Lenard, JYD, and Bradley and you have 11 solid players—enough depth to overcome the minor injuries that usually hit an NBA team.  Now here is the caveat.  The Raptors will likely possess a high lottery pick in the upcoming draft.

      Which college player can most benefit this team?  With all the hype it is becoming quite apparent that high schooler Lebron James will be the number one pick.  It is possible that the Raptors could see the lottery balls fall their way—like Houston did this past draft—and give them the number one pick.  If that occurs then Raptor management would have a difficult decision.  Do they select James—while being the most talented player will likely take at least a couple of years before he makes a significant contribution—or do they trade the pick?  It’s too early in the season to speculate about such an occurrence, but what we can do is look at the major Raptor weakness and see who can fill it.  The Raptors are desperate for an inside game—Davis is their only inside presence—so the team will likely be looking for a quality big man with their high pick.  According to the Sporting News there are two true quality centers in college—Chris Marcus (7-1,285) a senior out of Western Kentucky who has the ability to score and rebound (15.9 and 8.9 per game) and David Harrison (7-0 250) a sophomore from Colorado (17.3 points, 11.3 rebounds and 5.0 blocks).  Outside of those two the Raptors could select one of the many solid power forwards available and move Davis back to center.  Either way it would be a big boost to their inside game, both on offence and defence. 

     This season is not a total loss.  The team needs to rebuild its confidence and find a way to regain a winning attitude.  With some good health, a good draft, a decent trade, and the improved play of its young players the Raptors could next season return to their place as eastern conference contender.   

     So, don’t panic Raptor fans—this season is more of an anomaly than a precedent.  Next season will be much better—barring injuries of course.