January 18, 2005

WHY BAD TEAMS STAY BAD FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME

      So I’m watching the end of the Lakers-Warriors match-up one late night.  The game is tied and the Lakers have the ball with about a dozen seconds left.  With Kobe Bryant out of the line-up the Lakers choose Lamar Odom as the ball handler.  The Lakers have him set up just outside the top of the key and spread the floor leaving the lane open for Odom once he blows by his defender.  Now Odom is a solid player, but he’s not one that should beat you on the open floor.  He has one move…count it ONE move...and that is a simple curl to the left so his strong hand, his left, can carry the ball.  Everyone in the league must know this (after all I know it) but the Warriors don’t seem to know it.  They let him drive to his left and Odom ends up laying the ball in the basket, with his left hand, with just a few ticks left on the clock.  Game Over.  Is it any wonder the Warriors are a bottom feeder in the league year after year.

       The Odom play is one very brief moment in the season of a basketball team but it certainly highlights the reasons why bad teams stay bad for a long time.  Losing is a disease that can’t be wiped out simply because you change coaches, players, managers, etc.  Look at the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago Cubs?  (The Sox finally won because nobody gave them a chance after falling behind the Yankees and they began to play without any pressure)  The Chicago White Sox, the Buffalo Bills, The Minnesota Vikings, the Toronto Maple Leafs—more teams that can’t find the winning formula.  Why?  Because losing grows like weeds in the minds of those involved and those that watch.  The Warriors had to know what the Lakers, and Odom, had in mind.  But you can’t defend the theory--you actually have to defend in reality.  The Warriors choked up a fur ball when the game had to be played.

       How do you change a losing mindset?  The Toronto Raptors go out and lose 18 of 20 road games—and much of them in the same fashion, they choke down the stretch. They come home and have a successful home stand and are intent on carrying that solid play back on the road.  But their first game in Philadelphia they revert back to their losing ways, they panic; they go away from common sense (The 76ers were missing their shot blocker but instead of driving the basket the Raptors put up a team record 32 three pointers).  What happens to a team when their entire game plan and thought process disappears in the matter of seconds?  They know what they have to do--they just simply don’t do it.  Why?  Because they expect to lose.  When you anticipate the worse--as the old saying goes—it usually occurs.  It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.  Here we go again, is the common refrain.  Nerves rattle—panic ensues.  Common sense and planning disappear. 

      Watching the Lakers and the Warriors play was a prime example of this fact.  Talent-wise there is very little to choose between these clubs—the difference is in their heads.  The Lakers have shuffled the deck this year--they no longer have the big guy in the middle, and likely are years away from another title, but they still believe they can win every game.  The Warriors have been stuck in a losing situation for so long they can’t escape from it.  Chances are, down the stretch, the Warriors will find a way to make a mistake.  The Warriors tried to deal with this issue in the off-season by signing Derek Fisher to a monstrous contract believing Fisher’s winning ways would carry over to the young club.  Instead what is likely to occur is that Fisher will look back on his Laker days with fondness and remember the times when he was a winner.  Because he isn’t one anymore.