August 23, 2005

JAYS ARE THREE SOLID PLAYERS AWAY FROM BEING A CONTENDER 

      In many respects this has strictly been a developmental year for the Toronto Blue Jays.  As the club slowly falls off the wild card pace this year it is time to look to the future and analyze the club’s strengths and its needs.  This has been, when compared to previous years, a successful campaign.  The organization has been able to closely monitor the progress of its young players and each one’s ability to play, and succeed, in a competitive environment.  At the end of the day it has become quite clear to anyone who has been watching this team with objectivity that the Jays are short three quality players as they attempt to compete with the big boys

       Analyzing this club is fairly easy.  There are enough quality pieces to prove that the future is very bright.  But if the Jays want to play, on a consistent basis, with the high spending clubs that inhabit the A.L. East they are going to have to add some quality and some experience to their roster.  Two middle of the order bats and a number two starter are the team’s obvious needs.  Whether GM J.P. Ricciardi is able to fill those spots in the off-season will go a long way to dictating the future successes of the team.

       The line-up is solid, if not spectacular.  There are enough quality hitters to fit around the star offensive players…however there aren’t any star offensive players in the line-up.   Is it any wonder that Vernon Wells had his best season when hitting in front of Carlos Delgado, who was having his best season.  Pitchers were unwilling to take the chance on walking Wells so the young Jay was able to feast on pitches that were always around the strike zone.  This season, without star protection, Well’s aggressiveness has been used against him.  Both Vernon and follow-up hitter Shea Hillenbrand are of similar ilk—they have large strike zones and very little patience.  On most occasions, in clutch situations, pitchers tease both hitters with pitches outside the strike zone, and allow them to get themselves out.  It’s no secret why this club’s lack of clutch hitting, a flaw that has been, along with some inconsistent starting pitching, the team’s greatest Achilles Heel, permeates throughout the line-up.  When the middle of the order guys continually fail in the clutch it puts added pressure on the others to produce—and they fail as well.

       Wells and Hillenbrand are solid enough hitters, however, to be able protect others in the line-up.  Thus, Wells and Hillenbrand should be hitting fifth and sixth.  With Russ Adams and Orlando Hudson at the top of the order, and Corey Koskie, Greg Zaun and Alex Rios at the bottom the club has enough pieces to surround two quality hitters in the three and fourth spots.  Those two hitters should fill the left field spot and the first base/DH alternate spot with Hillenbrand.  Left out of next season’s picture are Frank Catalonotto and Eric Hinske—the Cat has trade value while Hinske will either be an add-in with another player in a trade or he will have to find a way to be successful coming off the bench.

       The bench looks pretty solid.  Aaron Hill can be the club’s third middle infielder—or perhaps he can be the Jays version of the Angels’ Chone Figgins and play multiple positions.  Reed Johnson is a solid fourth outfielder.  A solid back-up catcher is needed, but that shouldn’t be too difficult to find.  Frank Menechino is a serviceable spare part—just as long as he isn’t be used as a right-handed hitting DH, and that leaves either Hinske or Gabe Gross as the left-handed hitting pinch-hitter and fourteenth position player.  If the club chooses to go with 12 pitchers though, then one of those three will be removed.

       The pitching staff has depth, but needs another anchor in the starting rotation.  Roy Halladay is an ace on any club, and Gustavo Chacin has proven to be a solid third starter.  The rest of the rotation is up in the air.  The club can choose from Dave Bush, Josh Towers, Ted Lilly, Scott Downs, and Dustin McGowan to fill out the final two rotation spots—but that still leaves an opening at number two.  If the Jays can fill that spot with a quality major leaguer then it will put less pressure on the youngsters and allow them to develop at their own pace.  It also opens up multiple trade possibilities.  The Jays have a number of young starters in the minors and if they so choose they can move one of them, or one (some) of the bottom five to fill a need. 

       The bullpen has been a strength all season. Though it is apparent that some are wearing down (see Pete Walker) as the season comes to a close the club can simply make some minor adjustments in this area—perhaps add a second lefthander or a veteran set-up man.  Fortunately, and for the first time in recent memory, the bullpen is not a high priority for the Jays to fix in the off-season.

        If the Jays can fill all three major pieces in the off-season then they will have every chance at competing with the Yanks and Red Sox.  If they can only fill two, and one of those two must be another starter, then they will have to hope that someone on their present roster develops beyond expectations (such as Rios evolving into a 25 homer 100 RBI man).   

      Any way you look at it though this club has a bright future.  Their youngsters are developing nicely and their top players, Halladay and Wells, are secured for at least a couple of more years.  That provides some security for the franchise and its fans.