December 29, 2006

GIANTS LIKELY MADE THE BIGGEST FREE AGENT BLUNDER IN HISTORY 

      Barry Zito is a good pitcher—that’s a proven fact.   He is quality starter guaranteed to pitch 200 innings—having done so for six straight seasons—and he will likely win at least 14 games—having done so in five of the past six years.  But if one were to put a list together of the best pitchers in the game where would Zito rank?  The San Francisco Giants just bestowed upon him a contract that rewards Zito for not only being the best pitcher in the game today, but also a pitcher that will surely one day enter the hall of fame.  If that is not the case, on either end--and it is not-- then desperation just got the better of them and the Giants got raked across the coals.

       The historical nature of this type of deal does not bode well for the Giants.  There are only two contracts of similar length, and money, ever signed by pitchers in major league history.  Kevin Brown signed for seven years and $105 million with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1999 and Mike Hampton was signed to an eight year, $121 million contract in 2001 by the Colorado Rockies.  Both teams eventually regretted the deals and tried very hard to move each pitcher but found it very difficult because of the weight of the contracts.  Brown was finally dealt to the Yankees in 2004 and Hampton was shipped to the Braves, after two unproductive seasons, in 2003 with Colorado picking up the majority of the remaining contractual dollars.  The Giants will likely be trying to do the same in the upcoming years. 

      So, exactly what kind of pitcher are the Giants getting for all this coin?  How about a pitcher that ranked 51^st in the major leagues last season in walks plus hits per inning pitched (WHIP).  Or how about a pitcher that ranked 27^th in baseball in opponents batting average while handing out the fourth most walks in baseball.  Clearly, the Giants are getting a pitcher that operates with a lot of runners on base.  In 2002 Zito was a Cy Young Award winner with a 23-5 record, but since then Zito’s record is a mediocre 55-46.  When Zito’s career was in its infancy the bite on his curveball was crisp and his fastball usually ran into the mid-90’s.  Last season Zito rarely exhibited that crisp curveball (he had a hard time controlling it-- hence the high walk total) and his fastball usually peaked at around 90 miles per hour.  It is likely that Zito has seen his better days and the Giants are paying a king’s ransom for a pitcher on the decline. 

       The question is very simple—what on earth possessed the Giants, a team in desperate need of rebuilding, to make this deal with the devil?  Do they really believe that Zito is the missing ingredient for a championship run?  Do they think that they’ll be able to build a championship team around Zito in the upcoming years despite the fact that the pitcher will likely be earning about one-fifth of their payroll all by himself?  Do they think a club that has Rich Aurillia at first base, Dave Roberts in centerfield and Bengie Molina at catcher is a threat to win it all?  Perhaps they saw the Cardinals pull off the unexpected last season and win the World Series with a barely above .500 club and they figure that they can accomplish the same thing.  The only problem with that thought process is that the Cards were a much better club throughout the season and only a late season slump dropped them to a mediocre level.  And how often does a club with a poor record win the World Series?  Not very often.

       What is likely to happen is that the Giants will float around the .500 mark for most of the season and end up missing the playoffs.  They will then attempt to retool around Zito for the following year but will be unable to surround him with enough quality players to contend.  By the third years of the contract the Giants will be bemoaning the fact that the contract is just too onerous to be able to piece together a competitive club and will then attempt to trade Zito.  The contract will be so large however that they will run into a wall.  At that point Zito, then 32 years old, will suffer some sort of arm problems not uncommon to curveball pitchers and the Giants will then suddenly and completely understand the predicament that faced both the Dodgers and the Rockies. 

       There is a definite reason why almost all baseball clubs refuse to give pitchers the length of contract signed by Zito, and it has to do with injury.  Rarely, does a pitcher work through his career without some kind of injury, and teams don’t want to be on the hook for such a substantial sum of money if, in fact, a serious, perhaps career ending, injury occurs.  New York Mets GM Omar Minaya was never afraid of the money being asked by Zito—he just didn’t want to go past five years with the contract length. 

       In the end the Giants sold their soul to get a decent pitcher, and will now have to live with the repercussions.  Chances are they will regret this deal sooner rather than later.

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